26.3 Who won the first-past-the-post seats?

In each constituency there is a first-past-the-post system for the result of Erststimmen. In theory you might expect a few non-party winners, in practice there were none. Figure 26.16 shows a map coloured by the winning party.

Figure 26.16: Winners of Erststimmen seats by political party

There are strong geographic patterns. The CSU in light blue won (almost) all the seats in Bavaria. The CDU did well in the West. The AfD did well in the South of the old East Germany. The SPD won seats in the North of the old East Germany and in former industrial heartlands like the Ruhrgebiet. The Greens won a sprinkling of seats across the country in mainly urban areas. On this map it is hard to see that they won the one seat in Munich that the CSU failed to win in Bavaria (but see the next maps). The Linke won two seats in Berlin and one in Leipzig (again, see the next maps), essential for them to be represented in the Bundestag. Otherwise their failing to achieve 5% of Zweitstimmen would have excluded them. The FDP won no seats with Erststimmen.

The following set of maps shows where each party won Erststimmen seats. Bundesländer borders have been included for orientation.

Figure 26.17: Where political parties won Erststimmen seats

The seats won by the Greens in cities and by Die Linke in Berlin and Leipzig are now just about visible.

With a first-past-the-post system it is possible to win a seat with a low percentage of the votes. Figure 26.18 displays dotplots of the winning percentages by party in the 2021 German election and in the 2019 UK election. For the UK the three dotplots to the right are for the 18 seats won by parties based in Northern Ireland, the 4 seats won by Plaid Cymru in Wales, and the 48 seats won by the SNP in Scotland. None of these parties put up candidates in other parts of the UK.

Figure 26.18: Seat-winning percentages by party in Germany 2021 and in the UK 2019

It is surprising to see that in Germany only one seat was won with more than 50% of votes cast (Aurich - Emden) and that one was actually won with less than 20% (Dresden II - Bautzen II). This is a consequence of having several competing parties. The UK uses a first-past-the-post election for every MP. In 2019, the most recent election, 425 of the 649 MPs elected won more than 50% of the votes cast in their constituency. The lowest percentage winner got 32.6% in South Down, Northern Ireland.