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数据科学中的 R 语言

第 77 章 广义线性混合模型

文章数据和模型来源于Solomon Kurz的课件，我在他的基础上用Stan重写了代码

library(tidyverse)
library(tidybayes)
library(rstan)
library(loo)
rstan_options(auto_write = TRUE)
options(mc.cores = parallel::detectCores())

77.1 可爱的小狗狗们学习新技能 

dogs <- read.delim("./demo_data/dogs.txt") %>% 
  rename(dog = Dog)

这里将数据宽表格转换成长表格的形式

dogs <- dogs %>% 
  pivot_longer(-dog, values_to = "y") %>% 
  mutate(trial = str_remove(name, "T.") %>% as.double())

head(dogs)
## # A tibble: 6 × 4
##     dog name      y trial
##   <int> <chr> <int> <dbl>
## 1     1 T.0       0     0
## 2     1 T.1       0     1
## 3     1 T.2       1     2
## 4     1 T.3       0     3
## 5     1 T.4       1     4
## 6     1 T.5       0     5

77.2 数据探索

30只狗狗需要学习新技能，每只狗有25次机会学习(trial = 0:24)，y变量(0 = fail, 1 = success)

这里随机选取8只狗，看它们学习进展情况

subset <- sample(1:30, size = 8)

dogs %>% 
  filter(dog %in% subset) %>% 

  ggplot(aes(x = trial, y = y)) +
  geom_point() +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = 0:1) +
  theme(panel.grid = element_blank()) +
  facet_wrap(~ dog, ncol = 4, labeller = label_both)

77.3 模型

由于没有更多的数据，因此我们建立最简单的logistic回归模型，并考虑多层结构(Logistic multilevel growth model)

\[ \begin{align*} \text{y}_{i} & \sim \operatorname{Binomial}(1, \; p_{i}) \\ \operatorname{logit} (p_{i}) & = a_{j[i]} + b_{j[i]} \text{trial}_{i} \\ a_j & = \alpha_0 + u_i \\ b_j & = \beta_0 + v_i \\ \begin{bmatrix} u_i \\ v_i \end{bmatrix} & \sim \operatorname{Normal} \left ( \begin{bmatrix} 0 \\ 0 \end{bmatrix}, \begin{bmatrix} \sigma_u^2 & \\ \sigma_{uv} & \sigma_v^2 \end{bmatrix} \right ). \end{align*} \]

原文中使用的是lmer4::glmer()

library(lme4)

fit1 <- glmer(
  data = dogs,
  family = binomial,
  y ~ 1 + trial + (1 + trial | dog))

summary(fit1)

这里用Stan代码重写如下

stan_program <- "
data {
  int N;
  int K;
  matrix[N, K] X;
  int<lower=0, upper=1> y[N];
  int J;
  int<lower=0, upper=J> g[N];
  
}
parameters {
  array[J] vector[K] beta;
  vector[K] MU;
  
  vector<lower=0>[K] tau;
  corr_matrix[K] Rho;
}
model {
//  for(i in 1:N) {
//    p[i] = inv_logit(X[i] * beta[g[i]]);  
//  }
//  
//  for(i in 1:N) {
//    y[i] ~ bernoulli(p[i]);
//  }

  for(i in 1:N) {
    y[i] ~ bernoulli_logit(X[i] * beta[g[i]]);
  }
  
  beta ~ multi_normal(MU, quad_form_diag(Rho, tau));
  tau ~ exponential(1);
  Rho ~ lkj_corr(2);
}

generated quantities {
  vector[N] y_fit; 

  for(i in 1:N) {
    y_fit[i] = inv_logit(X[i] * beta[g[i]]);
  }
  
}

"


stan_data <- dogs %>% 
  tidybayes::compose_data(
    N = n,
    K = 2,
        J = n_distinct(dog),
    g = dog,
    y = y,
    X = model.matrix(~ 1 + trial, data = .)
    )

mod0 <- stan(model_code = stan_program, data = stan_data)

模型中加入预测后，更新为

stan_program <- "
data {
  int N;
  int K;
  matrix[N, K] X;
  int<lower=0, upper=1> y[N];
  int J;
  int<lower=0, upper=J> g[N];
  
  int M;
  matrix[M, K] X_new;
  int<lower=0, upper=J> g_new[M];
}
parameters {
  array[J] vector[K] beta;
  vector[K] MU;
  
  vector<lower=0>[K] tau;
  corr_matrix[K] Rho;
}
model {

  for(i in 1:N) {
    y[i] ~ bernoulli_logit(X[i] * beta[g[i]]);
  }
  
  beta ~ multi_normal(MU, quad_form_diag(Rho, tau));
  tau ~ exponential(1);
  Rho ~ lkj_corr(2);
}

generated quantities {
  vector[M] y_epred; 
  vector[M] y_fit; 
  vector[M] y_predict; 

  for(i in 1:M) {
    y_epred[i] = inv_logit(X_new[i] * MU);
    y_fit[i] = inv_logit(X_new[i] * beta[g_new[i]]);
    y_predict[i] = bernoulli_logit_rng(X_new[i] * beta[g_new[i]]);
  }
  
}

"

newdata <- 
  dogs %>% 
  tidyr::expand(
    dog,
    trial = seq(from = 0, to = 24, by = 0.25)
  )


stan_data <- dogs %>% 
  tidybayes::compose_data(
    N = n,
    K = 2,
        J = n_distinct(dog),
    g = dog,
    y = y,
    X = model.matrix(~ 1 + trial, data = .),
    
    M = nrow(newdata),
    X_new = model.matrix(~ 1 + trial, data = newdata),
    g_new = newdata$dog
    )

mod <- stan(model_code = stan_program, data = stan_data)
  • y_epred[i] : 固定效应对应的成功概率
  • y_fit[i] : 固定效应和随机效应，给出的是每只小狗的成功概率
  • y_predict[i] : 每只小狗的预测结果(0和1)

77.4 结果

77.4.1 看看每只小狗的成长曲线 

fit <- mod %>% 
  tidybayes::gather_draws(y_fit[i]) %>% 
  ggdist::mean_qi(.value) # 不知道为什么ggdist::mean_hdi() 会多出几行


fit %>% 
  bind_cols(newdata) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = trial, y = .value, group = dog)) +
  geom_line() +
  theme(legend.position = "none")

77.4.2 看看小狗们平均成长曲线 

epred <- mod %>% 
  tidybayes::gather_draws(y_epred[i]) %>% 
  ggdist::mean_qi(.value)

epred %>% 
  bind_cols(newdata) %>% 
  filter(dog == 1) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = trial, y = .value, ymin = .lower, ymax = .upper)) +
  geom_lineribbon() +
  theme(legend.position = "none")

77.4.3 两张图画在一起 

m <- epred %>% 
  bind_cols(newdata) %>% 
  filter(dog == 1) 


fit %>% 
  bind_cols(newdata) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = trial, y = .value, group = dog)) +

  geom_lineribbon(
    data = m, 
    aes(ymin = .lower, ymax = .upper)
  ) +
  geom_line()

77.4.4 每只狗狗的原始数据和成长曲线画在一起 

fit %>% 
  bind_cols(newdata) %>% 
  filter(dog %in% subset) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = trial, y = .value, group = dog)) +
  geom_lineribbon(aes(ymin = .lower, ymax = .upper)) +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 2:3 * 5, color = "white") +
  geom_hline(yintercept = c(.5, .8), color = "white") +
  geom_point(
    data = dogs %>% filter(dog %in% subset) ,
    aes(y = y)
  ) +
  labs(
    subtitle = "Learning curves for a random sample of individual dogs",
    y = "success probability") +
  scale_y_continuous(
    breaks = c(0, .5, .8, 1), labels = c("0", ".5", ".8", "1")
  ) +
  theme(
    panel.grid.major.x = element_blank(),
    panel.grid.major.y = element_blank(),
    panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
    legend.position = "none"
    ) +
  facet_wrap(~ dog, ncol = 4, labeller = label_both)