23 November 3

23.1 Announcements

• Common issues on assignment 4
  • Credible interval vs. credible region
  • Dimension reduction (e.g., timeseries of velocity vs. single number summary)
  • Vector vs. scalar notation and the Gaussian process (see pgs 139-140 of Wikle et al 2019)
• Assignment 5

23.2 Spatio-temporal models for disease data

• Example
  • Data from Enders et al (2018) which is available on Dryad Digital Repository
• Study goals
  • Make accurate predictions of vector abundance and probability of BYVD infection at times and locations where data was not collected.
  • Understand the environmental factors (e.g., temperature) that influence the vector abundance and probability of BYVD infection.
• Next steps
  • Write out the statistical model(s)
  • Determine how we will evaluate how model(s)
  • Semi-live example (R code can be downloaded here)