10 Day 10 (February 21)

10.1 Announcements

  • Redo of assignment 3 is graded

    • You could get up to 50% of your points back
    • See day 7 announcements

  • Assignment 4

    • No guide will be released

  • Assignment 5 is now due Wednesday

  • Assignment 6 is posted a due March 1

10.2 Our second statistical model

  • Dig into the rabies test a bit more….
  • What statistical model should I use if I know/estimate if I have rabies?
    • Remember that with our first statistical model we were trying to estimate if probability a randomly sampled bat has rabies.
  • Building a statistical model using a hierarchical Bayesian approach
    • Specify (write out) the data model (you may want to take a look at Ch. 10 and Ch. 23)
    • Specify the process model
    • Specify the parameter model (or prior) including hyper-parameters
    • Select and approach to obtain the posterior distribution
      • Gibbs sampler (re-read parts of Ch. 4 about Gibbs sampler; pgs.35 - 37)
      • Derive full conditionals
      • Discussion of trade-offs with Gibbs sampler with analytical full conditionals vs. Metropolis-Hastings
    • Live example (download)