16  Continuous Random Variables: Probability Density Functions

• The continuous analog of a probability mass function (pmf) is a probability density function (pdf).
• However, while pmfs and pdfs play analogous roles, they are different in one fundamental way; namely, a pmf outputs probabilities directly, while a pdf does not.
• A pdf of a continuous random variable must be integrated to find probabilities of related events.
• The probability density function (pdf) (a.k.a. density) of a continuous RV $X$, defined on a probability space with probability measure $\text{P}$, is a function $f_X:\mathbb{R}\mapsto [0,\mathrm{\infty })$ which satisfies $$\begin{array}{rl}\text{P}(a\le X\le b)& ={\int }_a^b{f}_X(x)dx,\text{for all }-\mathrm{\infty }\le a\le b\le \mathrm{\infty }\end{array}$$
• For a continuous random variable $X$ with pdf $f_X$, the probability that $X$ takes a value in the interval $[a,b]$ is the area under the pdf over the region $[a,b]$.
• The axioms of probability imply that a valid pdf must satisfy $$\begin{array}{rl}{f}_X(x)& \ge 0\text{for all }x,\\ {\int }_{-\mathrm{\infty }}^{\mathrm{\infty }}{f}_X(x)dx& =1\end{array}$$

Example 16.1 Let $X$ be a random variable with the “Exponential(1)” distribution. Then the pdf of $f_X$ is

$$f_X(x)=\{\begin{array}{ll}{e}^{-x},& x>0,\\ 0,& \text{otherwise.}\end{array}$$

1. Verify that $f_X$ is a valid pdf.
   
   
   
   
   
2. Find $\text{P}(X\le 1)$.
   
   
   
   
   
3. Find $\text{P}(X\le 2)$.
   
   
   
   
   
4. Find $\text{P}(1\le X<2.5)$.
   
   
   
   
   
5. Compute the 25th percentile of $X$.
   
   
   
   
   
6. Compute the 50th percentile of $X$.
   
   
   
   
   
7. Compute the 75th percentile of $X$.
   
   
   
   
   
8. Start to construct a spinner representing the Exponential(1) distribution.
   
   
   
   
   

16.1 Uniform distributions

Example 16.2

In the meeting problem assume that Regina’s arrival time $X$ (minutes after noon) follows a Uniform(0, 60) distribution.

1. Sketch a plot of the pdf of $X$.
   
   
   
   
   
2. Donny Dont says that the pdf is $f_X(x)=1/60$. Do you agree? If not, specify the pdf of $X$.
   
   
   
   
   
3. Use the pdf to find the probability that Regina arrives before 12:15.
   
   
   
   
   
4. Use the pdf to find the probability that Regina arrives after 12:45.
   
   
   
   
   
5. Use the pdf to find the probability that Regina arrives between 12:15 and 12:45.
   
   
   
   
   
6. Use the pdf to find the probability that Regina arrives between 12:15:00 and 12:16:00.
   
   
   
   
   
7. Use the pdf to find the probability that Regina arrives between 12:15:00 and 12:15:01.
   
   
   
   
   
8. Use the pdf to find the probability that Regina arrives at the exact time 12:15:00 (with infinite precision).
   
   
   
   
   

• A continuous random variable $X$ has a Uniform distribution with parameters $a$ and $b$, with $a<b$, if its probability density function $f_X$ satisfies $$\begin{array}{rlrl}{f}_X(x)& \propto \text{constant},& & a<x<b\\ & =\frac{1}{b-a},& & a<x<b.\end{array}$$
• If $X$ has a Uniform($a$, $b$) distribution then $$\begin{array}{rl}\text{Long run average value of }X& =\frac{a+b}{2}\\ \text{Variance of }X& =\frac{|b-a{|}^2}{12}\\ \text{SD of }X& =\frac{|b-a|}{\sqrt{12}}\end{array}$$
• The “standard” Uniform distribution is the Uniform(0, 1) distribution.
• If $U$ has a Uniform(0, 1) distribution then $X=a+(b-a)U$ has a Uniform($a$, $b$) distribution.

16.2 Density is not probability

• The probability that a continuous random variable $X$ equals any particular value is 0. That is, if $X$ is continuous then $\text{P}(X=x)=0$ for all $x$.
  
• For continuous random variables, it doesn’t really make sense to talk about the probability that the random value is equal to a particular value. However, we can consider the probability that a random variable is close to a particular value.

Example 16.3 Continuing Example 16.2, we will now we assume Regina’s arrival time in $[0,1]$ has pdf

$$f_X(x)=\{\begin{array}{ll}cx,& 0\le x\le 1,\\ 0,& \text{otherwise.}\end{array}$$

where $c$ is an appropriate constant.

Note that now we’re measuring arrival time in hours (i.e., fraction of the hour after noon) instead of minutes.

1. Sketch a plot of the pdf. What does this say about Regina’s arival time?
   
   
   
   
   
2. Find the value of $c$ and specify the pdf of $X$.
   
   
   
   
   
3. Find the probability that Regina arrives before 12:15.
   
   
   
   
   
4. Find the probability that Regina arrives after 12:45. How does this compare to the previous part? What does that say about Regina’s arrival time?
   
   
   
   
   
5. Find the probability that Regina arrives between 12:15 and 12:45.
   
   
   
   
   
6. Find the probability that Regina arrives between 12:15 and 12:16.
   
   
   
   
   
7. Find the probability that Regina arrives between 12:15:00 and 12:15:01.
   
   
   
   
   
8. Find the probability that Regina arrives at the exact time 12:15:00 (with infinite precision).
   
   
   
   
   
9. Find the probability that Regina arrives between 12:59:00 and 1:00:00. How does this compare to the probability for 12:15:00 to 12:16:00? What does that say about Regina’s arrival time?
   
   
   
   
   
10. Find the probability that Regina arrives between 12:59:59 and 1:00:00. How does this compare to the probability for 12:15:00 to 12:15:01? What does that say about Regina’s arrival time?
    
    
    
    
    
11. Find the probability that Regina arrives at the exact time 1:00:00 (with infinite precision).
    
    
    
    
    

Example 16.4 Let $X$ be a random variable with the Exponential(1) distribution. Then the pdf of $f_X$ is

$$f_X(x)=\{\begin{array}{ll}{e}^{-x},& x>0,\\ 0,& \text{otherwise.}\end{array}$$

1. Compute $\text{P}(X=1)$.
   
   
   
   
   
2. Without integrating, approximate the probability that $X$ rounded to two decimal places is 1.
   
   
   
   
   
3. Without integrating, approximate the probability that $X$ rounded to two decimal places is 1.7.
   
   
   
   
   
4. Find and interpret the ratio of the probabilities from the two previous parts. How could we have obtained this ratio from the pdf?
   
   
   
   
   

• The density $f_X(x)$ at value $x$ is not a probability.
• Rather, the density $f_X(x)$ at value $x$ is related to the probability that the RV $X$ takes a value “close to $x$” in the following sense

$$\text{P}(x-\frac{ϵ}{2}\le X\le x+\frac{ϵ}{2})\approx f_X(x)ϵ,\text{for small }ϵ$$

• The quantity $ϵ$ is a small number that represents the desired degree of precision. For example, rounding to two decimal places corresponds to $ϵ=0.01$.
• What’s important about a pdf is relative heights. For example, if $f_X(x_2)=2f_X(x_1)$ then $X$ is roughly “twice as likely to be near $x_2$ than to be near $x_1$” in the above sense.

$$\frac{f_X(x_2)}{f_X(x_1)}=\frac{f_X(x_2)ϵ}{f_X(x_1)ϵ}\approx \frac{\text{P}(x_2-\frac{ϵ}{2}\le X\le x_2+\frac{ϵ}{2})}{\text{P}(x_1-\frac{ϵ}{2}\le X\le x_1+\frac{ϵ}{2})}$$

16.3 Exponential distributions

• Exponential distributions are often used to model the waiting times between events in a random process that occurs continuously over time.

Example 16.5 Suppose that we model the waiting time, measured continuously in hours, from now until the next earthquake (of any magnitude) occurs in southern CA as a continuous random variable $X$ with pdf

$$f_X(x)=2e^{-2x},x\ge 0$$

This is the pdf of the “Exponential(2)” distribution.

1. Sketch the pdf of $X$. What does this tell you about waiting times?
   
   
   
   
   
2. Without doing any integration, approximate the probability that $X$ rounded to the nearest minute is 0.5 hours.
   
   
   
   
   
3. Without doing any integration determine how much more likely that $X$ rounded to the nearest minute is to be 0.5 than 1.5.
   
   
   
   
   
4. Compute and interpret $\text{P}(X>0.25)$.
   
   
   
   
   
5. Compute and interpret $\text{P}(X\le 3)$.
   
   
   
   
   
6. Compute and interpret the 25th percentile of $X$.
   
   
   
   
   
7. Compute and interpret the 50th percentile of $X$.
   
   
   
   
   
8. Compute and interpret the 75th percentile of $X$.
   
   
   
   
   
9. How do the values from the three previous parts compare to the percentiles from the Exponential(1) distribution> Suggest a method for simulating values of $X$ using the Exponential(1) spinner.
   
   
   
   
   
10. Use simulation to approximate the long run average value of $X$. Interpret this value. At what rate do earthquakes tend to occur?
    
    
    
    
    
11. Use simulation to approximate the standard deviation of $X$. What do you notice?
    
    
    
    
    

• A continuous random variable $X$ has an Exponential distribution with rate parametern$\lambda >0$ if its pdf is

$$f_X(x)=\{\begin{array}{ll}\lambda e^{-\lambda x},& x\ge 0,\\ 0,& \text{otherwise}\end{array}$$

• If $X$ has an Exponential($\lambda$) distribution then $$\begin{array}{rl}\text{P}(X>x)& =e^{-\lambda x},x\ge 0\\ \text{Long run average of }X& =\frac{1}{\lambda }\\ \text{Standard deviation of }X& =\frac{1}{\lambda }\end{array}$$
• Exponential distributions are often used to model the waiting time in a random process until some event occurs.
  • $\lambda$ is the average rate at which events occur over time (e.g., 2 per hour)
  • $1/\lambda$ is the mean time between events (e.g., 1/2 hour)
• The “standard” Exponential distribution is the Exponential(1) distribution, with rate parameter 1 and long run average 1. If $X$ has an Exponential(1) distribution and $\lambda >0$ is a constant then $X/\lambda$ has an Exponential($\lambda$) distribution.