Chapter 6 New Findings: Tables

6.1 Model Performance Falciparum

Model Falciparum	MAE	\[R^2_{{LR}_{sp}}\]	\[R^2_{{LR}_{null}}\]	CV log score	DIC	PD DIC	WAIC	PD WAIC
Spatio-temporal model (Spatial structure + autocorrelated annual cycle + inter-annual)	13.463	0.000	0.566	2.32	46351.53	75.75	46379.74	99.17
Climate model (Spatio-temporal + nonlinear climate variables)	13.328	0.016	0.573	2.31	46244.05	102.62	46279.01	129.88
Malaria-control model (Climate model + lag of interventions)	13.311	0.020	0.575	2.31	46120.64	58.76	46212.88	142.37
Full model (Malaria-control model + nonlinear deforestation)	12.516	0.070	0.596	2.29	45683.61	101.89	45746.48	154.36

Linear Model Falciparum	MAE	\[R^2_{{LR}_{sp}}\]	\[R^2_{{LR}_{null}}\]	CV log score	DIC	PD DIC	WAIC	PD WAIC
Spatio-temporal model (Spatial structure + autocorrelated annual cycle + inter-annual)	13.463	0.000	0.566	2.32	46351.53	75.75	46379.74	99.17
Climate model (Spatio-temporal + linear climate variables)	13.520	0.006	0.569	2.32	46290.17	79.84	46319.26	103.78
Malaria-control model (Climate model + lag of interventions)	13.475	0.016	0.573	2.31	46189.80	75.15	46225.53	105.47
Full model (Malaria-control model + linear deforestation)	13.428	0.022	0.576	2.31	46075.74	47.99	46153.36	119.50

6.2 Model Performance Vivax

Model Vivax	MAE	\[R^2_{{LR}_{sp}}\]	\[R^2_{{LR}_{null}}\]	CV log score	DIC	PD DIC	WAIC	PD WAIC
Spatio-temporal model (Spatial structure + autocorrelated annual cycle + inter-annual)	34.941	0.000	0.679	3.558	71068.12	76.30	71125.72	123.40
Climate model (Spatio-temporal + nonlinear climate variables)	34.684	0.022	0.686	3.551	70919.89	111.15	70986.50	163.62
Malaria-control model (Climate model + lag of interventions)	33.973	0.041	0.692	3.540	70719.30	112.23	70772.00	153.69
Full model (Malaria-control model + nonlinear deforestation)	33.037	0.082	0.705	3.520	70310.82	123.69	70364.26	164.79

Linear Model Vivax	MAE	\[R^2_{{LR}_{sp}}\]	\[R^2_{{LR}_{null}}\]	CV log score	DIC	PD DIC	WAIC	PD WAIC
Spatio-temporal model (Spatial structure + autocorrelated annual cycle + inter-annual)	34.941	0.000	0.679	3.558	71068.12	76.30	71125.72	123.40
Climate model (Spatio-temporal + linear climate variables)	34.95	0.006	0.681	3.555	71020.60	80.38	71080.49	129.08
Malaria-control model (Climate model + lag of interventions)	2.326946e+143	NA	NA	16.740	334265.90	14.89	334672.00	418.55
Full model (Malaria-control model + linear deforestation)	34.374	0.031	0.689	3.542	70766.40	83.92	70813.54	122.55

6.3 MAE

	MAE
Model	Vivax	Falciparum
Deforestation model	33.972	13.312
Malaria-control model	33.731	12.395
Climate model	33.244	12.601
Full model	33.037	12.516

6.3.1 Vivax: MAE per district

6.3.2 Falciparum: MAE per district