Chapter 7 Extra table

7.1 Falciparum

Model Falciparum	MAE	$$R^2_{{LR}_{sp}}$$	$$R^2_{{LR}_{null}}$$	CV log score	DIC	PD DIC	WAIC	PD WAIC
Spatio-temporal	13.463	0.000	0.566	2.32	46351.53	75.75	46379.74	99.17
Spatio-temporal + climate	13.328	0.016	0.573	2.31	46244.05	102.62	46279.01	129.88
Spatio-temporal + malaria-control	13.461	NA	0.566	2.32	46274.36	35.43	46356.82	112.38
Spatio-temporal + deforestation	12.496	0.047	0.587	2.30	45896.29	89.55	45930.99	117.52
Spatio-temporal + climate + malaria-control	13.311	0.020	0.575	2.31	46120.64	58.76	46212.88	142.37
Spatio-temporal + climate + deforestation	12.402	0.059	0.592	2.29	45807.07	107.35	45845.69	137.27
Spatio-temporal + malaria-control + deforestation	12.601	0.053	0.589	2.29	45796.41	69.70	45857.05	123.23
Full model	12.516	0.070	0.596	2.29	45683.61	101.89	45746.48	154.36

Linear Model Falciparum	MAE	$$R^2_{{LR}_{sp}}$$	$$R^2_{{LR}_{null}}$$	CV log score	DIC	PD DIC	WAIC	PD WAIC
Spatio-temporal	13.463	0.000	0.566	2.32	46351.53	75.75	46379.74	99.17
Spatio-temporal + climate	13.520	0.006	0.569	2.32	46290.17	79.84	46319.26	103.78
Spatio-temporal + malaria-control	41.542	0.009	0.570	2.32	46263.66	78.27	46292.69	102.17
Spatio-temporal + deforestation	13.492	0.015	0.572	2.31	46205.12	76.65	46235.98	102.51
Spatio-temporal + climate + malaria-control	13.475	0.016	0.573	2.31	46189.80	75.15	46225.53	105.47
Spatio-temporal + climate + deforestation	13.542	0.021	0.575	2.31	46150.97	80.80	46182.85	107.28
Spatio-temporal + malaria-control + deforestation	13.390	0.014	0.572	2.31	46137.71	41.69	46214.95	113.36
Full model	13.428	0.022	0.576	2.31	46075.74	47.99	46153.36	119.50

7.2 Vivax

Model Vivax	MAE	$$R^2_{{LR}_{sp}}$$	$$R^2_{{LR}_{null}}$$	CV log score	DIC	PD DIC	WAIC	PD WAIC
Spatio-temporal	34.941	0.000	0.679	3.558	71068.12	76.30	71125.72	123.40
Spatio-temporal + climate	34.684	0.022	0.686	3.551	70919.89	111.15	70986.50	163.62
Spatio-temporal + malaria-control	1.646015e+143	NA	NA	17.684	353112.70	48.28	353529.10	462.75
Spatio-temporal + deforestation	33.88	0.045	0.694	3.536	70634.50	91.33	70694.06	138.86
Spatio-temporal + climate + malaria-control	33.973	0.041	0.692	3.540	70719.30	112.23	70772.00	153.69
Spatio-temporal + climate + deforestation	33.75	0.064	0.699	3.530	70504.51	122.56	70572.07	174.57
Spatio-temporal + malaria-control + deforestation	1.038656e+57	NA	NA	9.557	190927.00	47.63	191062.70	182.20
Full model	33.037	0.082	0.705	3.520	70310.82	123.69	70364.26	164.79

Linear Model Vivax	MAE	$$R^2_{{LR}_{sp}}$$	$$R^2_{{LR}_{null}}$$	CV log score	DIC	PD DIC	WAIC	PD WAIC
Spatio-temporal	34.941	0.000	0.679	3.558	71068.12	76.300	71125.72	123.40
Spatio-temporal + climate	34.948	0.006	0.681	3.555	71020.94	80.370	71080.85	129.07
Spatio-temporal + malaria-control	34.27	0.020	0.686	3.540	70868.48	78.810	70913.49	115.94
Spatio-temporal + deforestation	34.988	0.006	0.681	3.550	71013.48	77.200	71071.60	124.81
Spatio-temporal + climate + malaria-control	2.326946e+143	NA	NA	16.740	334265.90	14.890	334672.00	418.55
Spatio-temporal + climate + deforestation	35.064	0.011	0.683	3.553	70970.28	81.385	71030.52	130.39
Spatio-temporal + malaria-control + deforestation	34.369	0.025	0.687	3.545	70818.42	79.670	70863.86	117.15
Full model	34.374	0.031	0.689	3.542	70766.40	83.920	70813.54	122.55