1.11 Unit 1 summary

1.11.1 You should be able to

  • Use Monte Carlo simulation to explore patterns in a random process:
    • Model: Translate real life phenomena into a model to be used in the simulation process.
    • Simulate: Use TinkerPlots™ to generate random outcomes from a model.
    • Evaluate: Determine the “typical” result from a Monte Carlo model, and a range of likely results
  • Describe a distribution in terms of shape, center, and spread (using mean and SD as appropriate)
  • Calculate a range of likely values in a distribution using the mean and SD

1.11.2 You should understand

  • That there is regularity in randomness
  • Why we need to run multiple simulated trials, and when you have run enough
  • What the mean represents in a distribution and why we use it to summarize the “typical” value in the distribution
  • What the standard deviation represents in a distribution and why we use it to summarize the variation in the distribution

1.11.3 TinkerPlots™ skills

  • Create a new sampler and use different devices to generate random outcomes (e.g., Spinner, Mixer, Counter).
  • Plot values from an attribute in a case table and organize (by separating) the the plotted values.
  • Numerically summarize the randomly generated outcomes from the trial (e.g., Count (N), Count (%)).
  • Automatically collect the results from many trials.
  • Find the mean and SD of a distribution
  • Use the Divider tool to select a range of values.

1.11.4 Vocab

  • Model
  • Trial
  • Result
  • Distribution
  • Mean
  • Standard deviation