Chapter 2 Three “isms” (Week 2)

2.1 Discussion questions

Questions denoted with an * means they are not directly related to an assigned reading. They are generally designed to whet your appetite for next week’s readings.

  • Building on Snyder (2004), how would the different IR theories explain the current Russia-Ukraine war? What policy implications can we draw from these theories?
  • Why do states fight each other? (*)

Why is the US not pushing for an end to the Ukraine war? | The Bottom Line

Jeffrey Sachs: U.S. Policy & “West’s False Narrative” Stoking Tensions with Russia, China

2.2 In class activity

Pick one “ism” from Snyder (2004), discuss with your teammates about how it explain the current conflict and what the policy implications are.

2.2.1 Structural/Offensive realism and the current Russia-Ukraine war

For some backgroud information, you can watch this video: Putin’s war on Ukraine, explained. For a somewhat recent assessment by the Institute for the Study of War RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 10.

John Mearsheimer has become the center of a recent twitter storm as scholars and pundits debate about the reasons of and policies toward Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It began with this tweet from Russia’s MFA and the retweet by Anne Applebaum.

Mearheimer has been the minority when it comes to his interpretation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2014 and the invasion this year. His most prominent piece about this topic is the 2014 Foreign Affairs article: Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault. And his related speech at the University of Chicago has reached over 20 million views on Youtube: Why is Ukraine the West’s Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer. For a much earlier piece where he make the case in 1993 that Ukraine should keep its nukes because no states (including the U.S.) can grant it “a meaningful security guarantee”. The Case for a Ukrainian Nuclear Deterrent. In his FA article, Mearsheimer argues

“The taproot of the trouble is NATO enlargement, the central element of a larger strategy to move Ukraine out of Russia’s orbit and integrate it into the West.”

“Elites in the United States and Europe have been blindsided by events only because they subscribe to a flawed view of international politics. They tend to believe that the logic of realism holds little relevance in the twenty-first century and that Europe can be kept whole and free on the basis of such liberal principles as the rule of law, economic interdependence, and democracy.”

This is because

“A huge expanse of flat land that Napoleonic France, imperial Germany, and Nazi Germany all crossed to strike at Russia itself, Ukraine serves as a buffer state of enormous strategic importance to Russia. No Russian leader would tolerate a military alliance that was Moscow’s mortal enemy until recently moving into Ukraine. Nor would any Russian leader stand idly by while the West helped install a government there that was determined to integrate Ukraine into the West. Washington may not like Moscow’s position, but it should understand the logic behind it. This is Geopolitics 101: great powers are always sensitive to potential threats near their home territory.”

Stephan Walt, in a more recent (January 2022) piece at Foreign Policy (Liberal Illusions Caused the Ukraine Crisis), echoed similar thoughts. Walt claims that

“The great tragedy is this entire affair was avoidable. Had the United States and its European allies not succumbed to hubris, wishful thinking, and liberal idealism and relied instead on realism’s core insights, the present crisis would not have occurred. Indeed, Russia would probably never have seized Crimea, and Ukraine would be safer today. The world is paying a high price for relying on a flawed theory of world politics.”

“Great powers are never indifferent to the geostrategic forces arrayed on their borders, and Russia would care deeply about Ukraine’s political alignment even if someone else were in charge. U.S. and European unwillingness to accept this basic reality is a major reason the world is in this mess today.”

“The best hope for a peaceful resolution of this unhappy mess is for the Ukrainian people and their leaders to realize that having Russia and the West fight over which side ultimately gains Kyiv’s allegiance is going to be a disaster for their country. Ukraine should take the initiative and announce it intends to operate as a neutral country that will not join any military alliance.”

2.3 Additional resources

If you need to refresh your memories on different IR theories, the Open Univeristy has a list of videos: Structural Realism - International Relations (1/7) and International Relations – Liberal Theory (2/7). Check also the other IR topics in The Open University’s List.

For a zombie apocalypse plan (if you read Drezner (2009)), see: Are You Prepared for a Zombie Apocalypse? The U.S. Government Is. See also Conplan 8888

For additional discussions concerning Ukraine, you can watch this relatively recent salon: Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine Salon | Ray McGovern, John Mearsheimer. See Mearsheimer’s interview with the New Yorker Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine. You can also watch a debate between Anne Applebaum and the late Stephen Cohen Anne Applebaum & Stephen Cohen cross over NATO expansion. See also another short video here by Stephen Cohen where he talked about NATO expansion and where he pointed out it had became a taboo to even question NATO expansion: Stephen F. Cohen: NATO expansion and Russia.

For the 2008 Bucharest Summit, read this: Ally, Member or Partner? NATO’s Long Dilemma Over Ukraine. For NATO expansion, read this: Enlarging NATO: A Questionable Idea Whose Time Has Come. For a piece that dismisses the effect of NATO expansion and instead argues the root cause is “the overwhelming desire of Ukrainians to live in an open, democratic society”, read or listen to this: Putin’s war reminds us why liberal democracy is worth defending.

On the security guarantee offered at Budapest, read The Case for a Ukrainian Nuclear Deterrent. Read also Why care about Ukraine and the Budapest Memorandum

For additional read about the recent debate around Mearsheimer, read this: No, Russia Didn’t Get its Propaganda From John Mearsheimer and this: WHY JOHN J. MEARSHEIMER IS WRONG ON UKRAINE. And this: Is “Ukraine the West’s fault”? On great powers and realism. John Mearsheimer and the dark origins of realism.

For a set of earlier work predicting Russia-Ukraine conflict, see Paul Poast’s twitter thread on IR predicuting Ukraine war. For a different perspective, read What we don’t know about war and peace.

For more from perspective of Russia’s history, read Stephen Kotkin’s FA artical in 2016: Russia’s Perpetual Geopolitics. Read or listen to his interview at the New Yorker The Weakness of the Despot.

For discussions concerning the prospect of WWIII. ‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes. How the war in Ukraine could change history. For more details concerning war participation, see Paul Poast’s tweet. You can also watch this interview with James Acton Nuclear weapons expert: The likelihood of nuclear war is rising | DW News. And read this recent piece: How to Stop a New Nuclear Arms Race With Russia Going Rogue, America Must Cooperate With China

For the poor performance of Russia army. Russian ex-minister says invasion of Ukraine is stalling because officials stole from military budget for ‘mega-yachts in Cyprus’. Why a huge Russian convoy remains stalled north of Kyiv. Trent Telenko’s tweet that explains the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices.

On dedollarization, read Putin’s war, China and the Euro-Dollar trap. Also George Magnus’s tweet on the war’s impact on China’s financial ambition. And The Anti-Dollar Axis: Russia and China’s Plans to Evade U.S. Economic Power.

On China’s attitudes and policies, read China’s Ukraine Crisis What Xi Gains—and Loses—From Backing Putin. And Zack Cooper’s tweet on why the crisis is a test on China-US relation and why it may only get worse.

For a guide on the development, check this: UNDERSTANDING THE RUSSO-UKRAINIAN WAR: A GUIDE FROM WAR ON THE ROCKS

There are also a list of other topics worth investigating.