Supporting information
Cross-correlation between Outcome and Predictors
Summary of Meteorology Model
Family: quasipoisson
Link function: log
Formula:
count ~ s(templ0, k = 4) + s(templ1, k = 4) + s(templ2, k = 4) +
s(templ3, k = 4) + s(rainl0, k = 4) + s(rainl1, k = 4) +
s(rainl2, k = 4) + s(rainl3, k = 4)
Parametric coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 2.47558 0.01332 185.9 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Approximate significance of smooth terms:
edf Ref.df F p-value
s(templ0) 2.928 2.995 25.245 5.26e-16 ***
s(templ1) 2.893 2.990 6.253 0.000261 ***
s(templ2) 2.502 2.834 5.288 0.000921 ***
s(templ3) 2.969 2.998 30.083 < 2e-16 ***
s(rainl0) 2.997 3.000 23.098 8.96e-15 ***
s(rainl1) 2.487 2.807 39.393 < 2e-16 ***
s(rainl2) 3.000 3.000 44.397 < 2e-16 ***
s(rainl3) 2.981 2.999 15.184 8.77e-10 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
R-sq.(adj) = 0.283 Deviance explained = 31.9%
GCV = 4.9062 Scale est. = 5.2576 n = 2792
Summary of Short-term Lag Model
Family: quasipoisson
Link function: log
Formula:
count ~ s(count1, k = 4) + s(count2, k = 4) + s(count3, k = 4) +
s(count4, k = 4)
Parametric coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 2.49879 0.01271 196.7 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Approximate significance of smooth terms:
edf Ref.df F p-value
s(count1) 2.911 2.993 287.059 < 2e-16 ***
s(count2) 1.916 2.300 7.412 0.000409 ***
s(count3) 1.027 1.053 3.933 0.048968 *
s(count4) 1.000 1.000 1.260 0.261669
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
R-sq.(adj) = 0.399 Deviance explained = 41%
GCV = 4.2141 Scale est. = 4.5806 n = 2562
Summary of Long-term Lag Model
Family: quasipoisson
Link function: log
Formula:
count ~ s(count1, k = 4) + s(count2, k = 4) + s(count3, k = 4) +
s(count4, k = 4) + s(count5, k = 4) + s(count6, k = 4) +
s(count7, k = 4) + s(count8, k = 4) + s(count9, k = 4) +
s(count10, k = 4) + s(count11, k = 4) + s(count12, k = 4) +
s(count13, k = 4) + s(count14, k = 4) + s(count15, k = 4) +
s(count16, k = 4) + s(count17, k = 4) + s(count18, k = 4) +
s(count19, k = 4) + s(count20, k = 4) + s(count21, k = 4) +
s(count22, k = 4) + s(count23, k = 4) + s(count25, k = 4) +
s(count26, k = 4) + s(count27, k = 4) + s(count28, k = 4) +
s(count29, k = 4) + s(count30, k = 4)
Parametric coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 2.43389 0.01817 133.9 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Approximate significance of smooth terms:
edf Ref.df F p-value
s(count1) 2.887 2.987 162.559 < 2e-16 ***
s(count2) 1.000 1.000 0.355 0.551404
s(count3) 1.000 1.000 0.840 0.359665
s(count4) 1.000 1.000 1.217 0.270258
s(count5) 1.012 1.023 5.659 0.016666 *
s(count6) 1.000 1.000 1.509 0.219571
s(count7) 2.678 2.920 5.216 0.003936 **
s(count8) 2.804 2.969 5.651 0.002368 **
s(count9) 1.000 1.000 3.708 0.054465 .
s(count10) 1.510 1.836 0.712 0.563002
s(count11) 2.840 2.978 2.330 0.085147 .
s(count12) 1.000 1.000 2.986 0.084322 .
s(count13) 1.560 1.886 1.501 0.164029
s(count14) 1.000 1.000 1.644 0.200113
s(count15) 1.425 1.706 0.642 0.375933
s(count16) 1.000 1.000 1.641 0.200553
s(count17) 1.970 2.325 0.560 0.483933
s(count18) 2.143 2.489 7.704 0.000245 ***
s(count19) 1.000 1.000 1.421 0.233549
s(count20) 1.000 1.000 0.289 0.590906
s(count21) 1.612 1.958 5.651 0.007767 **
s(count22) 1.000 1.000 1.395 0.237862
s(count23) 2.693 2.926 8.966 1.48e-05 ***
s(count25) 1.000 1.000 9.825 0.001774 **
s(count26) 2.137 2.531 3.156 0.056200 .
s(count27) 2.818 2.973 4.800 0.006031 **
s(count28) 1.000 1.000 4.739 0.029724 *
s(count29) 1.546 1.868 3.735 0.018887 *
s(count30) 2.449 2.769 5.328 0.004379 **
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
R-sq.(adj) = 0.623 Deviance explained = 64.4%
GCV = 3.1307 Scale est. = 3.1523 n = 978
Summary of Optimal-term Lag Model
Family: quasipoisson
Link function: log
Formula:
count ~ s(count1, k = 4) + s(count2, k = 4) + s(count23, k = 4)
Parametric coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 2.47649 0.01474 168 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Approximate significance of smooth terms:
edf Ref.df F p-value
s(count1) 2.939 2.997 278.184 <2e-16 ***
s(count2) 1.067 1.131 3.958 0.0501 .
s(count23) 2.370 2.715 34.242 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
R-sq.(adj) = 0.49 Deviance explained = 48.9%
GCV = 3.7406 Scale est. = 3.9826 n = 1723
Summary of Meteorology and Optimal-term Lag Model
Family: quasipoisson
Link function: log
Formula:
count ~ s(templ0, k = 4) + s(templ1, k = 4) + s(templ2, k = 4) +
s(templ3, k = 4) + s(rainl0, k = 4) + s(rainl1, k = 4) +
s(rainl2, k = 4) + s(rainl3, k = 4) + s(count1, k = 4) +
s(count2, k = 4) + s(count23, k = 4)
Parametric coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 2.4237 0.0126 192.4 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Approximate significance of smooth terms:
edf Ref.df F p-value
s(templ0) 3.000 3.000 18.473 8.50e-12 ***
s(templ1) 2.541 2.850 14.254 2.05e-08 ***
s(templ2) 2.999 3.000 19.367 2.25e-12 ***
s(templ3) 1.000 1.000 102.734 < 2e-16 ***
s(rainl0) 2.897 2.988 3.830 0.0124 *
s(rainl1) 2.975 2.998 93.704 < 2e-16 ***
s(rainl2) 3.000 3.000 44.644 < 2e-16 ***
s(rainl3) 2.812 2.969 3.231 0.0196 *
s(count1) 2.941 2.997 149.230 < 2e-16 ***
s(count2) 2.661 2.915 23.874 2.03e-14 ***
s(count23) 1.874 2.249 19.171 1.68e-09 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
R-sq.(adj) = 0.638 Deviance explained = 66.4%
GCV = 2.5266 Scale est. = 2.6396 n = 1723
Summary of Meteorology, Optimal-term and Short-term Surrounding Lag Model
Family: quasipoisson
Link function: log
Formula:
count ~ s(templ0, k = 4) + s(templ1, k = 4) + s(templ2, k = 4) +
s(templ3, k = 4) + s(rainl0, k = 4) + s(rainl1, k = 4) +
s(rainl2, k = 4) + s(rainl3, k = 4) + s(count1, k = 4) +
s(count2, k = 4) + s(count23, k = 4) + s(surroundingCountVec1,
k = 4) + s(surroundingCountVec2, k = 4)
Parametric coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 2.42054 0.01245 194.3 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Approximate significance of smooth terms:
edf Ref.df F p-value
s(templ0) 2.972 2.998 17.499 3.14e-11 ***
s(templ1) 1.956 2.314 6.408 0.000859 ***
s(templ2) 2.998 3.000 20.736 3.17e-13 ***
s(templ3) 2.056 2.462 39.326 < 2e-16 ***
s(rainl0) 1.000 1.000 0.719 0.396444
s(rainl1) 2.982 2.999 95.402 < 2e-16 ***
s(rainl2) 2.963 2.996 29.391 < 2e-16 ***
s(rainl3) 2.987 2.999 10.072 1.15e-06 ***
s(count1) 2.920 2.994 116.329 < 2e-16 ***
s(count2) 2.679 2.923 23.681 2.55e-14 ***
s(count23) 1.924 2.302 20.554 3.15e-10 ***
s(surroundingCountVec1) 2.722 2.945 16.210 4.80e-10 ***
s(surroundingCountVec2) 1.000 1.000 8.939 0.002830 **
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
R-sq.(adj) = 0.652 Deviance explained = 67.3%
GCV = 2.4659 Scale est. = 2.5611 n = 1723
Meteorology, Optimal-term and Optimal-term Surrounding Lag Model
Family: quasipoisson
Link function: log
Formula:
count ~ s(templ0, k = 4) + s(templ1, k = 4) + s(templ2, k = 4) +
s(templ3, k = 4) + s(rainl0, k = 4) + s(rainl1, k = 4) +
s(rainl2, k = 4) + s(rainl3, k = 4) + s(count1, k = 4) +
s(count2, k = 4) + s(count23, k = 4) + +s(surroundingCountVec1,
k = 4) + s(surroundingCountVec2, k = 4) + s(surroundingCountVec12,
k = 4)
Parametric coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 2.4178 0.0123 196.6 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Approximate significance of smooth terms:
edf Ref.df F p-value
s(templ0) 2.925 2.991 25.017 7.55e-16 ***
s(templ1) 2.826 2.958 7.179 0.000176 ***
s(templ2) 3.000 3.000 24.866 9.21e-16 ***
s(templ3) 2.390 2.761 27.940 6.69e-14 ***
s(rainl0) 1.574 1.865 0.656 0.536832
s(rainl1) 3.000 3.000 107.060 < 2e-16 ***
s(rainl2) 2.872 2.969 14.988 8.42e-10 ***
s(rainl3) 3.000 3.000 17.948 1.80e-11 ***
s(count1) 2.914 2.994 114.425 < 2e-16 ***
s(count2) 2.673 2.920 20.566 1.80e-12 ***
s(count23) 1.821 2.194 24.118 1.43e-11 ***
s(surroundingCountVec1) 2.649 2.914 22.053 1.93e-13 ***
s(surroundingCountVec2) 1.000 1.000 8.352 0.003900 **
s(surroundingCountVec12) 2.761 2.956 13.242 1.81e-08 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
R-sq.(adj) = 0.658 Deviance explained = 68.1%
GCV = 2.4149 Scale est. = 2.4807 n = 1723
Social Data Included
Family: quasipoisson
Link function: log
Formula:
count ~ s(templ0, k = 4) + s(templ1, k = 4) + s(templ2, k = 4) +
s(templ3, k = 4) + s(rainl0, k = 4) + s(rainl1, k = 4) +
s(rainl2, k = 4) + s(rainl3, k = 4) + s(count1, k = 4) +
s(count2, k = 4) + s(count23, k = 4) + s(surroundingCountVec1,
k = 4) + s(surroundingCountVec2, k = 4) + s(surroundingCountVec12,
k = 4) + offset(log(garbage)) + s(garbage)
Parametric coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) -6.16406 0.01228 -502.1 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Approximate significance of smooth terms:
edf Ref.df F p-value
s(templ0) 2.922 2.991 25.056 7.23e-16 ***
s(templ1) 2.819 2.956 7.070 0.000202 ***
s(templ2) 2.999 3.000 24.666 1.22e-15 ***
s(templ3) 2.421 2.782 28.152 5.25e-14 ***
s(rainl0) 1.575 1.866 0.666 0.533065
s(rainl1) 3.000 3.000 107.828 < 2e-16 ***
s(rainl2) 2.867 2.967 14.760 1.18e-09 ***
s(rainl3) 3.000 3.000 17.746 2.47e-11 ***
s(count1) 2.919 2.994 110.705 < 2e-16 ***
s(count2) 2.710 2.937 19.116 1.02e-11 ***
s(count23) 1.771 2.139 23.832 2.69e-11 ***
s(surroundingCountVec1) 2.706 2.938 23.221 2.77e-14 ***
s(surroundingCountVec2) 1.000 1.001 8.100 0.004481 **
s(surroundingCountVec12) 2.766 2.957 13.226 1.77e-08 ***
s(garbage) 3.070 3.838 327.587 < 2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
R-sq.(adj) = 0.659 Deviance explained = 74.6%
GCV = 2.4091 Scale est. = 2.4687 n = 1723
Initial Analyses Summary