2 Materials and Methods
2.1 Study Area
Our aim is to predict the dengue outbreak in each of its several districts shown in Figure 2.1.
## Warning: package 'tseries' was built under R version 3.3.2
Now, let’s look at some of the descriptive statistics of dengue in Bangkok from year 2008 to 2015. We have the data available for each month throughout the year, however in a few cases data from some of the districts is missing. I will report about the missing data when it is required for our analysis. We have the data about following variables.
- Monthly Dengue Incidence (MD) (for each district)
- Dengue Fever (DF) data.
- Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) and
- Dengue Shock Syndrome (DSS)
- Meteorological Variables (uniform for all districts in Bangkok)
- Monthly Average Rainfall (MR)
- Monthly Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR)
- Socio-Economic Data (for each district)
- Population Demographics in different age groups (2014)
- Number of communities (schools, hospitals, meetup centers etc.) in 2011.
- Yearly Garbage Collection (2012 to 2014).
- Location Specific Data (for each district)
- Attached to the river stream.
- Distance from the river stream.
2.2 Meteorological Data
The temperatur data is collected as Diurnal Temperature Range abbreviated as DTR. DTR is the difference between the daily maximum and minimum temperature. It is shown in Table 2.1.
The data for average monthly rainfall in Bangkok is shown in Table 2.2.
Plotting average monthly rainfall for all the years on the same plot.
2.3 Dengue Incidences
In this study, we only use the data for DHF.
We can observe a trend in Fig 2.5 that dengue outbreak increases every alternative year. But is it really a pattern? Well, we don’t have enough data for say that, however we will check and see if we can exploit this ‘pattern’ for better prediction of dengue.
2.4 Interaction of Meteorological Variables
There are 18 districts that are close to stream as shown in Figure 2.1. Their names are:
 "Bang Su" "Dusit" "Bang Plad"  "Phra Nakhon" "Bangkok Noi" "Bangkok Yai"  "Thon Buri" "Khlong San" "Pom Pram Sattru"  "Samphantawong" "Bang Rak" "Sathorn"  "Bang Kho Laem" "Yannawa" "Rat Burana"  "Khlong Toey" "Prakanong" "Bang Na"
Wikipedia. 2016. “List of Districts of Bangkok — Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia.” https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_districts_of_Bangkok&oldid=732094425.