A Appendix
Sections or work that do not fit elsewhere, or that which explore “off topic” subjects will be kept here.
A.1 Population Data from CT DPH
Below are population values used to calculate per capita statistics in tables and charts, for 9 selected towns. See Archambault (2020a) for more information.
Note this data was updated Feb 7th, 2021, to align with population numbers used by CT DPH. Anaylses on this site previously used population estimates from 2019 for each town (Department of Public Health"" 2020), but DPH uses different numbers for per capita metrics. This site now uses the same numbers.
| town | CT DPH Est. Pop. |
|---|---|
| Easton | 7517 |
| Easton | 7521 |
| Redding | 9116 |
| Redding | 9125 |
| Weston | 10247 |
| Weston | 10252 |
| Wilton | 18343 |
| Wilton | 18397 |
| Monroe | 19434 |
| Monroe | 19470 |
| Bethel | 19714 |
| Bethel | 19800 |
| New Canaan | 20213 |
| New Canaan | 20233 |
| Ridgefield | 24959 |
| Ridgefield | 25008 |
| Newtown | 27774 |
| Newtown | 27891 |
A.2 CT DPH data for case rate and test positivity by Town
CT DPH publishes a dataset, (weekly, see (Archambault 2020a) for more information) which includes case rates over the previous two weeks and positive test rates over two weeks (among other statistics). This represents the state’s best estimate of the number of cases, percent positivity, etc. The numbers is that dataset are different from what is in they daily report. I have shown one two-week period below for both datasets to illustrate the differences between them.
| totalcases | caserate | totaltests | percentpositive | reportperiodenddate | updatedate | sq_mi | pop_dens | pop_dens_category |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2.3 | 455 | 0.7 | 2020-10-17 | 2020-10-22 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 12 | 9.4 | 551 | 2.0 | 2020-10-24 | 2020-10-29 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 13 | 10.2 | 812 | 1.8 | 2020-10-31 | 2020-11-05 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 20 | 15.7 | 678 | 3.4 | 2020-11-07 | 2020-11-12 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 34 | 26.6 | 626 | 5.6 | 2020-11-14 | 2020-11-19 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 33 | 25.8 | 756 | 4.5 | 2020-11-21 | 2020-11-25 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 32 | 25.0 | 808 | 4.5 | 2020-11-28 | 2020-12-03 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 44 | 34.4 | 848 | 5.6 | 2020-12-05 | 2020-12-10 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 34 | 26.6 | 842 | 4.9 | 2020-12-12 | 2020-12-17 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 29 | 22.7 | 670 | 5.2 | 2020-12-19 | 2020-12-24 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 33 | 25.8 | 668 | 4.6 | 2020-12-26 | 2020-12-31 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 46 | 36.0 | 844 | 5.5 | 2021-01-02 | 2021-01-07 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 69 | 54.0 | 945 | 7.7 | 2021-01-09 | 2021-01-14 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 56 | 43.8 | 809 | 8.2 | 2021-01-16 | 2021-01-21 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 37 | 29.0 | 756 | 5.7 | 2021-01-23 | 2021-01-28 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 25 | 19.6 | 915 | 4.2 | 2021-01-30 | 2021-02-04 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 16 | 12.5 | 816 | 3.2 | 2021-02-06 | 2021-02-11 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 10 | 7.8 | 569 | 1.8 | 2021-02-13 | 2021-02-18 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 15 | 11.7 | 584 | 2.9 | 2021-02-20 | 2021-02-25 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 14 | 11.0 | 793 | 2.3 | 2021-02-27 | 2021-03-04 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 25 | 19.6 | 873 | 3.0 | 2021-03-06 | 2021-03-11 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 35 | 27.4 | 756 | 5.0 | 2021-03-13 | 2021-03-18 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 33 | 25.8 | 738 | 5.4 | 2021-03-20 | 2021-03-25 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 37 | 29.0 | 895 | 4.3 | 2021-03-27 | 2021-04-01 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 30 | 23.5 | 884 | 3.6 | 2021-04-03 | 2021-04-08 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 20 | 15.7 | 766 | 2.7 | 2021-04-10 | 2021-04-15 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 22 | 17.2 | 680 | 3.8 | 2021-04-17 | 2021-04-22 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 27 | 21.1 | 797 | 4.5 | 2021-04-24 | 2021-04-29 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 15 | 11.7 | 745 | 2.8 | 2021-05-01 | 2021-05-06 | 31.5 | 289.6825 | Quintile 2 |
| 9 | 7.1 | 480 | 2.3 | 2021-05-08 | 2021-05-13 | 31.5 | 289.3968 | Quintile 2 |
| 8 | 6.3 | 398 | 1.8 | 2021-05-15 | 2021-05-20 | 31.5 | 289.3968 | Quintile 2 |
| NA | NA | 338 | 0.6 | 2021-05-22 | 2021-05-27 | 31.5 | 289.3968 | Quintile 2 |
| NA | NA | 439 | 0.9 | 2021-05-29 | 2021-06-03 | 31.5 | 289.3968 | Quintile 2 |
| NA | NA | 441 | 0.5 | 2021-06-05 | 2021-06-10 | 31.5 | 289.3968 | Quintile 2 |
| NA | NA | 272 | 0.7 | 2021-06-12 | 2021-06-17 | 31.5 | 289.3968 | Quintile 2 |
| NA | NA | 294 | 1.0 | 2021-06-19 | 2021-06-24 | 31.5 | 289.3968 | Quintile 2 |
| NA | NA | 321 | 0.9 | 2021-06-26 | 2021-07-01 | 31.5 | 289.3968 | Quintile 2 |
| NA | NA | 285 | 0.4 | 2021-07-03 | 2021-07-08 | 31.5 | 289.3968 | Quintile 2 |
| NA | NA | 275 | 0.0 | 2021-07-10 | 2021-07-15 | 31.5 | 289.3968 | Quintile 2 |
| 0 | 0.0 | 272 | 0.0 | 2021-07-17 | 2021-07-22 | 31.5 | 289.3968 | Quintile 2 |
We see in the chart above (which came directly from the CT DPH, without edits) for the period ending 2020-12-05, the percent positive rate for Redding is 5.6 with 848 total tests. This would imply there were .056*848=47.5 cases in that two week period. However, another dataset published by CT DPH, which I have used to generate the daily COVID case chart and percent positive chart, yields a different percent positive. This is the difference between the daily data, which is published quickly, versus the data which is published weekly, but has been “cleaned.”
| updated | tests | positive_tests | negative_tests |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-11-29 | 132 | 8 | 116 |
| 2020-11-29 | 132 | 8 | 116 |
| 2020-11-30 | 38 | 0 | 38 |
| 2020-11-30 | 38 | 0 | 38 |
| 2020-12-01 | 112 | 3 | 104 |
| 2020-12-01 | 112 | 3 | 104 |
| 2020-12-02 | 88 | 7 | 81 |
| 2020-12-02 | 88 | 7 | 81 |
| 2020-12-03 | 78 | 0 | 78 |
| 2020-12-03 | 78 | 0 | 78 |
| 2020-12-04 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020-12-04 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020-12-05 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020-12-05 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| tests | positives | negatives | pct_positive |
|---|---|---|---|
| 896 | 36 | 834 | 4.14 |