第 7 章 综合练习

7.1 2018秋季试卷

Part I: Each problem is worth 3 points.

  1. Let X1,X2,,X6 be a simple random sample taken from N(0,22). Denote Y=(X1+X2)2+(X3+X4)2+(X5+X6)2. If kYχ2(3), then k=___?

  2. Let X1,X2,X3 be a simple random sample taken from N(μ,σ2). If ˆμ=12X1+cX2+16X3 is an unibased estimate of μ, then c=___?

  3. Let X1,X2,X3 be a simple random sample taken from B(1,p). For testing the hypothesis H0:p=1/2 vs. H1:p=3/4, we use a rejection region: W={(x1,x2,x3):x1+x2+x32}. The power of the test is ___?

  4. Let X1,,Xn be a simple random sample taken from N(μ,1), and let S2n=1nni=1(XiˉX)2 be the sample variance. Then Var[S2n]=___?

  5. If the usual 95% confidence interval for the mean of normal population was [0.12,0.22], the method of moments estimate of the mean would be ___?


Part II: Multiple Choice Problems (one or more than one items may be true). Each problem is worth 3 points.

  1. The parameters θ,λ,α,β are unknown in the following densities. Which of the following probability distributions belong to the exponential family? ( )

A. f(x;θ,λ)=θλ(xλ)θ1e(x/λ)θ1{x>0}

B. f(x;α,β)=Γ(α+β)Γ(α)Γ(β)xα1(1x)β11{0<x<1}, where Γ() is the gamma function.

C. f(x;λ)=λαΓ(α)xα1eλx1{x>0}

D. f(x;θ)=22πe(xθ)221{xθ}

  1. Let X1,,Xn be the simple random sample taken from the normal distribution N(μ,σ2), where μ,σ2 are unknown parameters. Which of the following are sufficient statistics for θ=(μ,σ2)? ( )

A. T1=(X1,,Xn)

B. T2=(ni=1Xi,ni=1X2i)

C. T3=(ni=1|Xi|,ni=1X2i)

D. T4=1nni=1Xi

  1. Which of the following statements are true? ( )

A. If the p-value is 0.05, the corresponding test will be rejected at the significance level 0.03.

B. If a test rejects at significance level 0.05, then the p-value is less than or equal to 0.05.

C. If the significance level of a test is decreased, the power of the test would be expected to decrease.

D. A type II error occurs when the test statistic falls in the rejection region of the test and the null is true.

  1. Let ˆβ0,ˆβ1 be the least squares etstimators for the simple linear model yi=β0+β1xi+ϵi, i=1,,n, where ϵiiidN(0,σ2). Which of the following statements are true? ( )

A. ˆβ0 and ˆβ1 are independent.

B. ˆβ0ˆβ1 is normally distributed.

C. The more spread out the xi are the better we can estimate the slope β1.

D. ˉy=ˆβ0+ˆβ1ˉx, where ˉx=1nni=1xi, ˉy=1nni=1yi.

  1. Let X1,,Xn be a simple random sample taken from N(2,32), and let ˉX be the sample mean. Which of the following are true? ( )

A. ˉX23/nt(n)

B. 19ni=1(Xi2)2F(n,1)

C. ˉX23/nN(0,1)

D. 19ni=1(Xi2)2χ2(n)


Part III. (15 points)

Let X1,,Xn be a simple random sample taken from the density

f(x;θ)=2xθ2,0xθ.

  1. Find an expression for ˆθL, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for θ.

  2. Find an expression for ˆθM, the method of moments estimator for θ.

  3. For the two estimators ˆθL and ˆθM, which one is more efficient in terms of mean squared error (MSE)?


Part IV. (10 points)

Let X1,,Xn be a simple random sample taken from an exponential distribution Exp(λ), whose density is given by f(x;λ)=λeλx1{x0}, λ>0. Derive a likelihood ratio test of the hypothesis H0:λ=1 vs. H1:λ=2. What is the definition of uniformly most powerful (UMP)? Is the test UMP against the alternative H1:λ>1?


Part V. (10 points)

A medical researcher believes that women typically have lower serum cholesterol (血清胆固醇) than men. To test this hypothesis, he took a sample of 476 men between the ages of nineteen and forty-four and found their mean serum cholesterol to be 189.0 mg/dl with a sample standard deviation of 34.2. A group of 592 women in the same age range averaged 177.2 mg/dl and had a sample standard deviation of 33.3. Is the lower average for the women statistically significant? Set the significant level α =0.05. What assumptions are made when conducting the test? (u0.95=1.644854, t0.95(1066)=1.646284, t0.95(1068)=1.646282, u0.975=1.959964, t0.975(1066)=1.962192, t0.975(1068)=1.962188)


Part VI. (10 points)

Let X1,,Xn be a simple random sample taken from the uniform distribution U(θ,0), where θ<0.

(a). Derive a 100(1α)% confidence interval for θ.

(b). There is a duality between confidence intervals and hypothesis tests. Use the result in part (a) to derive a test at significant level α of the hypothesis H0:θ=θ0 vs. H1:θθ0, where θ0<0 is fixed.


Part VII. (10 points)

Consider the linear model yi=β0+β1xi+ϵi, ϵiiidN(0,σ2), i=1,,n. Suppose that all the fixed xi are not equal and n3.

(a). Derive a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) ˆσ2L for σ2.

(b). Let Tk=kˆσ2L be an estimate of σ2. Find a kR such that Tk is an unbiased estimate of σ2. Show that the unbiased estimate is not the optimal choice by taking account of mean squared error (MSE), and the most efficient Tk takes place at k=1, i.e., the MLE ˆσ2L.


Part VIII. (15 points)

Consider the multiple linear regression model yi=β0+β1xi1+β2xi2++βp1xi,p1+ϵi, where i=1,,n and n>p2.

(a). Find the least squares estimates (LSE) of β0,,βp1 via the matrix formalism. What assumptions are required for ensuring a unique solution of the LSE?

(b). Show that the the residuals sum to zero. Are the standard assumptions of E[ϵi]=0 for i=1,,n required to establish the statement?

(c). Suppose that ϵiiidN(0,σ2), where σ>0 is an unknown parameter. Define α=p1i=1β2i. Use the generalized likelihood ratio method to test the hypothesis

H0:α=0 vs. H1:α>0. If the coefficient of determination R2=0.95, p=3 and n=13, is the null rejected at the significant level α=0.05? (F0.95(2,10)=4.10,F0.95(3,10)=3.71,t0.95(10)=1.81)

7.2 2018秋季试卷答案

Part I:

  1. 1/8
  2. 1/3
  3. 27/32
  4. 2(n1)/n2
  5. 0.17

Part II:

  1. BC
  2. AB
  3. BC
  4. BCD
  5. D

Part III:

  1. The likelihood function is

L(θ)=ni=1f(xi;θ)=2nθn(ni=1xi)1{x(n)θ}.

To maximize L(θ), we need to choose θx(n) so that L(θ)=Aθn, where A=2nni=1xi does not depend on θ. So the MLE is ˆθL=X(n).

  1. First, compute the first order moment:

E[X]=θ0xf(x;θ)dx=θ02x2θ2dx=2θ3.

This implies that θ=3E[X]/2. The method of moments estimator ˆθM=3ˉX/2.

  1. The density for X(n) is given by

fX(n)(x;θ)=nFn1(x)f(x;θ)=nx2(n1)θ2(n1)2xθ2=2nx2n1θ2n,0xθ.

The first and second order moments for X(n) are

E[X(n)]=θ02nx2nθ2ndx=2nθ2n+1,

E[X2(n)]=θ02nx2n+1θ2ndx=nθ2n+1.

The MSE for ˆθL is given by

MSE(ˆθL)=E[(ˆθLθ)2]=E[X2(n)]2θE[X(n)]+θ2=nθ2n+14nθ22n+1+θ2=θ2(n+1)(2n+1).

The second order moment for X is

E[X2]=θ02x3θ2dx=θ22.

The MSE for ˆθM is given by

MSE(ˆθM)=Var[ˆθM]=9Var[X]4n=94n(E[X2]E[X]2)=94n(θ224θ29)=θ28n.

It is easy to see that when n3, MSE(ˆθL)<MSE(ˆθM); otherwise, MSE(ˆθL)>MSE(ˆθM).

Part IV:

The likelihood function is

L(λ)=ni=1(λeλxi)=λneλnˉx.

The likelihood ratio is given by

λ(x)=L(2)L(1)=2ne2nˉxenˉx=2nenˉx.

Choose the test statistic T(x)=2nˉx. When λ=1, T(X)χ2(2n). Also, λ(x)=2neT(x)/2. The rejection region is of the form W={T(x)<C}. We thus have C=χ2α(2n).

A rejection region W is said to be UMP if for any rejection region W with the type I error probability no more than α, the power of the test associated with W is no larger than that of the rejection region W.

Consider the test of the hypothesis

H0:λ=1 vs. H1:λ=λ0>1. Following the same procedure above, the likelihood ratio test gives the same rejection region W. So the test derived before is also UMP for the alternative H1:λ>1 by using the N-P lemma.

Part V:

Let Xi be the serum cholesterol for men, i=1,,n=476, let Yj be the serum cholesterol for women, j=1,,m=592. We now have ˉx=189.0, s1n=34.2, ˉy=177.2, s2m=33.3. Suppose that XiiidN(μ1,σ2) and YiiidN(μ2,σ2). We are testing

H0:μ1μ2, vs. H1:μ1>μ2.

We use the t-test. The test statistic is

T=ˉXˉYSw1n+1m, where S2w=(nS21n+mS22m)/(n+m2). The rejection region is given by W={T>t1α(n+m2)}. The observed test statistic is

t=189.0177.233.741476+1592=5.68>t0.95(1066)=1.65.

We therefore reject the null. The lower average for the women is statistically significant.

The assumptions are

  1. normally distributed for both groups
  2. the two grouds are independent
  3. their variances are the same

Part VI:

Let G=X(1)/θ. The CDF for G is given by

FG(x)=P(Gx)=P(X(1)/θx)=P(X(1)θx)=ni=1P(Xiθx)=xn, 0<x<1.

Let a,bR such that P(aGb)=1α. Then the CI for θ is

CI=[X(1)a,X(1)b].

For simplicity, we take a,b such that P(Ga)=P(Gb)=α/2. This implies a=(α/2)1/n, b=(1α/2)1/n.

Or you can take P(Ga)=α,P(Gb)=1 so that a=α1/n,b=1.

You can also other statistics, such as G=2log(ni=1Xi/θ). The answer is not unique.

Form part (a), we have

Pθ(θCI)=1α θ<0.

We therefore choose the rejection region

W={θ0CI}.

It is easy to see that Pθ0(θ0CI)=α.

Part VII:

It is easy to see that

ˆσ2L=S2en,

where S2e=ni=1(yiˆβ0ˆβ1xi)2, and ˆβ0,ˆβ1 are the LSE for β0,β1. It is known that S2e/σ2χ2(n2). This gives E[S2e]=(n2)σ2 and Var[S2e]=2(n2)σ4.

As a result, E[Tk]=kE[S2e/n]=k(n2)nσ2. If Tk is unbiased, then k=n/(n2). On the other hand,

Var[Tk]=k2n2Var[S2e]=2(n2)k2n2σ4.

The MSE of Tk is given by

M(k)=E[(Tkσ2)2]=(E[Tk]σ2)2+Var[Tk]=(n2)(k1)2+2nσ4

whose minimum takes place at k=1.

Part VIII:

(a). Y=Xβ, the LSE is ˆβ=(XX)1XY. It is requried that that rank(X)=p.

(b). ˆϵ=YXˆβ=YX(XX)1XY=(InP)Y

ˆϵX=Y(InP)X=0.

As a result, we have ˆϵ1=ni=1ˆϵi=0. We do not require any assumption on ϵi.

(C). The test statistic is

F=S2R/(p1)S2e/(np)=R2/(p1)(1R2)/(np)=0.95/2(10.95)/10=95>F0.95(2,10)=4.1.

We therefore reject the null.

7.3 2019春季试卷

Part I: Each problem is worth 3 points.

  1. Let X1,,X10 be i.i.d. sample of XExp(1). If 210i=1Xiχ2(k), then the value of k is __________

  2. What is the definition of Type I error?_______________________________

  3. Let Tt(10). It is known that P(T1.8)=0.95. Then F0.9(1,10)=___________

  4. If the 95% confidence interval for the mean of a normally distributed population with known variance is [1.2,1.4] based on a sample of size 100, how much larger a sample do you think you would need to halve the length of the confidence interval (该置信区间长度减半需要增加多少样本)? ____________

  5. Show one advantage of the maximum likelihood method compared to the method of moments. ___________________________


Part II: Multiple-Choice Problems (ONLY one of the items is true). Each problem is worth 3 points.

  1. Let X1,,Xn be i.i.d. sample of XN(μ,σ2), where μ,σ are unknown parameters. Which one of the following is NOT a statistic. ( )

A. X1+X2++Xn

B. X(1)=min

C. \frac{\bar X-\mu}{\sigma/\sqrt{n}}

D. g(\bar X), where g(\cdot) is a given function over \mathbb{R}.

  1. Consider the problem of testing

H_0:\mu=0\ vs.\ H_1:\mu>0.

The power functions of four rejection regions are plotted below. Which one might be the uniformly most powerful (UMP) rejection region at the significance level \alpha = 0.05? ( )

  1. Let X_1,\dots,X_n (n\ge 3) be a smple of a Weibull population with denstiy

f(x;k,\lambda)=\frac k\lambda\left(\frac{x}{\lambda}\right)^{k-1}e^{-(x/\lambda)^k}1\{x> 0\},

where k>0,\lambda>0 are unknown parameters. Which of following is a sufficient statistic for \theta=(k,\lambda)? ( )

A. T_1 = (X_1,\dots, X_n)

B. T_2 = \prod_{i=1}^n X_i

C. T_3 = \sum_{i=1}^n X_i^k

D. T_4 = (\sum_{i=1}^n X_i^k, \prod_{i=1}^n X_i)

  1. Let \hat\beta_0,\hat\beta_1,\hat\beta_2 be the least squares estimators for the multiple linear model

y_i = \beta_0+\beta_1x_{i1}+\beta_2x_{i2}+\epsilon_i,

where \epsilon_i\stackrel{iid}{\sim}N(0,\sigma^2), i=1,\dots,n. Which of the following statements is NOT true? ( )

A. The estimators \hat\beta_0,\hat\beta_1,\hat\beta_2 are normally distributed.

B. The estimators \hat\beta_0,\hat\beta_1,\hat\beta_2 are independent.

C. \mathbb{E}[\hat\beta_i] = \beta_i,\ i=0,1,2.

D. \hat\beta_0-\hat\beta_1 is normally distributed.

  1. Consider the multiple linear model Y = X\beta +\epsilon, where X is the n\times p design matrix, \beta is a vector of p parameters, and the error \epsilon\sim N(0,\sigma^2 I_n). Let \hat\beta be the least squares estimate of \beta, \hat Y = X\hat\beta, \hat\epsilon = Y-\hat Y, and S_e^2 = ||\hat\epsilon||^2=\sum_{i=1}^n \hat\epsilon_i^2. Which of following statements is true? ( )

A. \frac{S_e^2}{\sigma^2}\sim \chi^2(n)

B. S_e^2 is independent of the length of \hat\beta, i.e., ||\hat\beta||.

C. \hat\beta\sim N(\beta,\sigma^2 X^\top X)

D. \sqrt{S_e^2/(n-p)} is an unbiased estimate of \sigma.


Part III. (15 points)

Let X_1,\dots,X_n be i.i.d. sample of X\sim N(\mu,\sigma^2), where \mu\in\mathbb{R} and \sigma>0.

  1. If \sigma is known, find a 1-\alpha confidence interval (CI) for \mu.

  2. If \sigma is unknown, find a 1-\alpha CI for \mu.

  3. Would you use the CI established in Part (b) if you were able to get the value of \sigma? Why?


Part IV. (10 points)

For a random sample of size n from a population X, consider the following as an estimate of \theta=\mathbb{E}[X]:

\hat\theta = \sum_{i=1}^n c_i X_i,

where c_i are fixed numbers and X_1,\dots,X_n is i.i.d. sample.

  1. Find a condition on the c_i such that the estimate is unbiased.

  2. Show that the choice of c_i that minimizes the mean squared errors (MSEs) of the estimate subject to the condition in Part (a) is c_i = 1/n, where i=1,\dots,n.


Part V. (10 points)

Suppose that X is a discrete random variable with P(X=1) = (1-\theta)^2,\ P(X=2) = 2\theta(1-\theta),\ P(X=3)=\theta^2, where \theta\in(0,1). Now a total of 100 independent observations of X are made with the following frequencies:

Case X=1 X=2 X=3
Frequency 70 10 20

What is the maximum likelihood estimate of \theta?


Part VI. (10 points)

Write down the Neyman-Pearson (N-P) Lemma and prove it.


Part VII. (10 points)

There are 37 blood alcohol determinations made by Analyzer GTE-10, a three-year-old unit that may be in need of recalibration (校准). All 37 measurements were made using a test sample on which a properly adjusted machine would give a reading of 12.6\%. Based on the data, the sample mean \bar x = 12.7\% and the sample standard deviation s = 0.6\%. (t_{0.975}(36)=2.028, t_{0.975}(37)=2.026, t_{0.95}(36)=1.688, t_{0.95}(37)=1.687, u_{0.975}=1.960, u_{0.95}=1.645)

  1. Would you recommend that the machine should be readjusted (重新调整) at the level of significance \alpha = 0.05?

  2. What is the p-value of your test? (Suppose that the CDFs of the standard normal, t, \chi^2, F distributions are known. You can use them whenever you need.)

  3. What assumptions are made when conducting the test?


Part VIII. (15 points)

Suppose that in the model

y_i= \beta_0+\beta_1x_i+\epsilon_i,\ i=1,\dots,n,

the errors \epsilon_i have mean zero and are uncorrelated, but \mathrm{Var}(\epsilon_i) = \rho_i^2\sigma^2, where the \rho_i>0 are known constants, so the errors do not have equal vairance. Because the variances are not equal, the theory developed in our class does not apply.

  1. Try to transform suitably the model such that the basic assumptions (i.e., the errors have zero mean and equal variance, and are uncorrelated) of the standard statistical model are satisfied.

  2. Find the least squares estimates of \beta_0 and \beta_1 for the transformed model.

  3. Find the variances of the estimates of Part (b).