4.5 Computational examples

  • ¿What is the probability that the Sun will rise tomorrow?

This is the most famaous Ricard Price^{}s example developed in the Appendix of the Bayes^{} theorem paper (Bayes 1763). Here, we implicitly use Laplace^{}s Rule of Succession to solve this question. In perticular, if we were a priori uncertain about the probability the Sun will on a specified day rise, that is, a prior uniform distribution over (0,1), that is, a beta (1,1) distribution…


Bayes, Thomas. 1763. “LII. An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances. By the Late Rev. Mr. Bayes, FRS Communicated by Mr. Price, in a Letter to John Canton, AMFR s.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, no. 53: 370–418.