Chapter 4 Market Analysis
4.1 Introduction
We simulate every possible market structure governed by the 3 firms and evaluate the firms and the market’s response to the low sulfur fuel switching policy.
4.3 Pollution Stock
The industry’s BAU sulfur and carbon emission paths¯ECO2t ,¯ESOxt accumulate throughout the planning horizon and form a pollution stock such that:
{¯ECO2t=∑Nfirmsi=1¯eCO2i,t¯ESOxt=∑Nfirmsi=1¯eSOxi,t
Pollution decays over time with a natural rate of decayδ. We assumeδ = 1, and we compute the industry’s BAUCO2 andSOx emission inventory as the following:
{¯SCO2t+1=¯ECO2t+(1−δ)ׯSCO2t¯SSOxt+1=¯ESOxt+(1−δ)ׯSSOxt
4.4 Enviromental Damages
we consider a relatively small pollutant damage parameterγD=1.5 and approximate the global damages generated by the industry from the accumulation of pollution stock Dt(St) as: {DCO2t=γD2(SCO2t)2DSOxt=γD2(SSOxt)2
4.8 Selected market structures for coalition analysis
| Business Case | Firm 1 | Firm 2 | Firm 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | s1=90% | s2=5% | s3=5% |
| 2 | s1=80% | s2=10% | s3=10% |
| 3 | s1=70% | s2=15% | s3=15% |
| 4 | s1=60% | s2=20% | s3=20% |
| 5 | s1=33% | s2=33% | s3=33% |
The motivation;
proxy china case : big market share + high abatement cost + high pollutant
energy producing countries: low market share + high abatement cost + high pollutant
4.9 fleet size and market demand and occupancy % ???
Add more stuff analysing the # of vessels that were deployed and how much of these were full vs not full might expand the analsys to 5 % increase -later add the TEU on the x axis as well as the market share impact of higher fuel prices on vessel speeds, and emissions and the size of the fleet as demand grows …. also add 90 % and 100 to the analysi s just add the results to final data seprately probably fir firm 3 it was better go fast bite the cost of fuel than to add in another vessel to the fleet the # of vessels would allow to explain the calculation and remove any ambiguities … remove the second axis from the carbon analysis not worth it
switch the bullet type on the NPV, if i want to keep in the same graph …
graphical analysis 1. 3d graphs at the period level ; ?? x = market share, y = emissins / # vessel , z = period how full the vessel was ?