Chapter 6 Presidential Elections

In the context of presidential elections, Pennsylvania is often referred to as a “keystone state” because of its significant role in determining the outcome of elections. Here’s why:

  1. Swing State Status: Pennsylvania is considered a battleground or swing state, meaning it does not consistently vote for one political party. Its electoral votes are highly contested, making it crucial for candidates to win.

  2. Electoral Votes: With a substantial number of electoral votes, Pennsylvania holds considerable weight in the Electoral College. Winning Pennsylvania can be pivotal for a candidate’s path to securing the presidency.

  3. Historical Influence: Historically, Pennsylvania has been a bellwether state, often reflecting broader national voting trends. Its diverse population and mix of urban and rural areas make it a microcosm of the United States, adding to its strategic importance.

These factors make Pennsylvania a “keystone” in the electoral process, as its outcome can significantly influence the overall result of presidential elections.

6.1 Blue Wall

The “Blue Wall” refers to a group of U.S. states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — that traditionally leaned Democratic in presidential elections, forming a reliable base for Democratic candidates. Here’s why it’s significant:

  1. Consistent Voting Pattern: Historically, from the 1990s through the early 2010s, these states consistently voted for Democratic presidential candidates. This pattern provided a strong foundation for the Democratic Party in the Electoral College.

  2. Key States: The Blue Wall typically includes states in the Upper Midwest and Northeast, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. These states have significant electoral votes, making them crucial for securing a presidential victory.

  3. 2016 Election Shift: The significance of the Blue Wall was highlighted in the 2016 presidential election when Donald Trump won several of these states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. This shift was pivotal in his victory, demonstrating that these states were not as reliably Democratic as previously thought.

  4. Strategic Focus: The concept of the Blue Wall underscores the importance of these states in campaign strategies. Both parties focus heavily on winning these states due to their potential to swing the election outcome.

Overall, the Blue Wall represents both a historical voting trend and a strategic focal point in U.S. presidential elections, illustrating the dynamic nature of electoral politics.

6.2 2024 Presidential Election

Pennsylvania is considered crucial in the 2024 presidential election for several reasons:

  1. Electoral Votes: Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes, which are significant in the Electoral College. Winning Pennsylvania can greatly influence the overall outcome of the election.

  2. Swing State Status: As a battleground state, Pennsylvania is not consistently aligned with one political party, making it a key target for both Democratic and Republican candidates. Its diverse electorate means that small shifts in voter preferences can have a large impact.

  3. Historical Influence: The state’s voting patterns have historically mirrored national trends, making it a bellwether for the overall direction of the election. This makes Pennsylvania a focal point for campaign strategies.

Overall, Pennsylvania’s role as a swing state with a substantial number of electoral votes makes it a pivotal battleground in the 2024 presidential election.

6.3 Demographics

Pennsylvania is often considered a microcosm of the United States electorate. While no single state can perfectly represent the entire U.S. electorate, Pennsylvania’s demographic, economic, and political characteristics make it a strong reflection of national trends and issues.

  1. Age and Education: The median age of adults in Pennsylvania is 52, which is slightly older than the national median. A higher percentage of Pennsylvanians have a high school education or less compared to the national average, while the rates of those with college and postgraduate degrees are similar to national figures.

  2. Racial Composition: Over three-quarters of Pennsylvanians are white (77%), which is higher than the national average. The state has smaller Hispanic and Asian American populations compared to the national averages, while the percentages of Black and multiracial residents are similar to national figures.

  3. Political Affiliation: More Pennsylvanians identify as Republicans (35%) and Democrats (34%) compared to the national averages, with fewer identifying as independents (22%). The state has a balanced mix of conservatives, moderates, and liberals.

  4. Religious Landscape: Pennsylvania has a higher percentage of white Christians compared to the national average, with significant numbers identifying as white mainline/non-evangelical Protestant, white Catholic, and white evangelical Protestant. The state has a slightly lower percentage of religiously unaffiliated individuals than the national average.

  5. Key Issues: Important issues for Pennsylvania voters include access to guns, abortion, immigration, and LGBTQ rights. There are notable partisan divides on these issues, particularly on abortion and LGBTQ rights, with Democrats generally more supportive of legal access and protections.

  6. Attitudes Toward Abortion: A majority of Pennsylvanians support legal access to abortion, with significant partisan differences in these attitudes.

These demographics and issue preferences highlight the diverse and complex electorate in Pennsylvania, making it a critical battleground in the 2024 presidential election.