Chapter 5 Hackathon

All models are wrong but some are useful (Stouffer 2019; Box 1976). Critical thinking with statistics is thus critical to ensure that we effectively support evidence informed decision making in society (Christopher J. Lortie and Owen 2020; Neelen and Kirschner 2020).

Learning outcomes

  1. Appreciate the challenge of working with data to apply a critical thinking & creative design mindset to statistical solutions.
  2. Practice your workflow and literate coding before a summative test.
  3. Refine your thinking and coding for efficiency.

Critical thinking

Efficiency is a fascinating topic in statistics (Craycraft 1999; Kenett, Coleman, and Stewardson 2003; Norman 2003). Here, we can simplify this using the critical thinking criteria we have extensively refined and applied to numerous, tidy challenges. Efficiency = sufficiency (provided it is logical, fair, and accurate). Your plots and statistical models should represent a reasonable and likely description of the data at hand. This section is a formative opportunity for you to evaluate your skills and strengths in logic, efficiency, fair adventuring, workflows, and literate coding prior to the final section - a test. You are provided with a general dataset(s). The adventure is solve a very generalized challenge that is embodied in the evidence.

Adventure time

Candy. Candy. Candy. Take a peek at these sweet data. Contrast Canada and USA candy sales at Halloween. Considering including population density in your model for each country for each year so as not to introduce variation and to be more accurate in estimating meaningful differences.

Canadian Candy
USA Candy & Halloween spending
Human populations

Deeper dive: contrast GLMM model performance, examine temporal effects, or explore GAMs.

library(tidyverse)
Canada <- read_csv(url("https://figshare.com/ndownloader/files/30990820"))
Canada
## # A tibble: 233 × 3
##    month  year  candy
##    <dbl> <dbl>  <dbl>
##  1     1  1997 101014
##  2     2  1997 101938
##  3     3  1997 136057
##  4     4  1997 105601
##  5     5  1997 119123
##  6     6  1997 107689
##  7     7  1997 113399
##  8     8  1997 113934
##  9     9  1997 109441
## 10    10  1997 146876
## # … with 223 more rows
USA <- read_csv(url("https://figshare.com/ndownloader/files/25190510"))
USA
## # A tibble: 16 × 6
##     year total costumes candy decorations cards
##    <dbl> <dbl>    <dbl> <dbl>       <dbl> <dbl>
##  1  2005   3.3      1.2   1.2         0.8   0.1
##  2  2006   5        1.8   1.6         1.3   0.3
##  3  2007   5.1      1.8   1.6         1.4   0.3
##  4  2008   5.8      2.1   1.8         1.6   0.3
##  5  2009   4.7      1.7   1.5         1.2   0.3
##  6  2010   5.8      2     1.8         1.6   0.3
##  7  2011   6.9      2.5   2           1.9   0.5
##  8  2012   8        2.9   2.3         2.4   0.6
##  9  2013   7        2.6   2.1         2     0.4
## 10  2014   7.4      2.8   2.2         2     0.4
## 11  2015   6.9      2.5   2.1         1.9   0.3
## 12  2016   8.4      3.1   2.5         2.4   0.4
## 13  2017   9.1      3.3   2.7         2.7   0.4
## 14  2018   9        3.2   2.6         2.7   0.4
## 15  2019   8.8      3.2   2.6         2.6   0.4
## 16  2020   8        2.6   2.4         2.6   0.4
humans <- read_csv(url("https://figshare.com/ndownloader/files/30993373"))
humans
## # A tibble: 249 × 72
##    country `1950` `1951` `1952` `1953` `1954` `1955` `1956` `1957` `1958` `1959`
##    <chr>   <chr>  <chr>  <chr>  <chr>  <chr>  <chr>  <chr>  <chr>  <chr>  <chr> 
##  1 Burundi 2 309  2 360  2 406  2 449  2 492  2 537  2 585  2 636  2 689  2 743 
##  2 Comoros 159    163    167    170    173    176    179    182    185    188   
##  3 Djibou… 62     63     65     66     68     70     71     74     76     80    
##  4 Eritrea 822    835    849    865    882    900    919    939    961    983   
##  5 Ethiop… 18 128 18 467 18 820 19 184 19 560 19 947 20 348 20 764 21 201 21 662
##  6 Kenya   6 077  6 242  6 416  6 598  6 789  6 988  7 195  7 412  7 638  7 874 
##  7 Madaga… 4 084  4 168  4 257  4 349  4 444  4 544  4 647  4 754  4 865  4 980 
##  8 Malawi  2 954  3 012  3 072  3 136  3 202  3 271  3 342  3 417  3 495  3 576 
##  9 Maurit… 493    506    521    537    554    571    588    605    623    641   
## 10 Mayotte 15     16     16     17     18     19     20     21     22     23    
## # … with 239 more rows, and 61 more variables: 1960 <chr>, 1961 <chr>,
## #   1962 <chr>, 1963 <chr>, 1964 <chr>, 1965 <chr>, 1966 <chr>, 1967 <chr>,
## #   1968 <chr>, 1969 <chr>, 1970 <chr>, 1971 <chr>, 1972 <chr>, 1973 <chr>,
## #   1974 <chr>, 1975 <chr>, 1976 <chr>, 1977 <chr>, 1978 <chr>, 1979 <chr>,
## #   1980 <chr>, 1981 <chr>, 1982 <chr>, 1983 <chr>, 1984 <chr>, 1985 <chr>,
## #   1986 <chr>, 1987 <chr>, 1988 <chr>, 1989 <chr>, 1990 <chr>, 1991 <chr>,
## #   1992 <chr>, 1993 <chr>, 1994 <chr>, 1995 <chr>, 1996 <chr>, 1997 <chr>, …

Reflection questions

  1. How does veracity of data from different resources potentially influence your critical thinking?
  2. Can joining data introduce errors?
  3. How does the available data bias the inference and interpretation of relative variables on key outcomes?

Book review

Throughout these sections, you should have now also completed a read of key chapters to support your learning from the text suggested ‘The New Statistics with R’ (Hector 2017). Use the ten simple rules for reviews suggested (Christopher J. Lortie 2019), and write and submit a short, less than 2000 word review of this text and submit to turnitin.com.

Rubric

item concept description value
1 rule 1 the topic introduce topic, explain necessity, explain scope 2
2 rule 2 audience explain audience-level of book and to what extent blend of expertise is needed 2
3 rule 3 editions mention different editions or versions and what is changed 0
4 rule 4 pedagogy describe pedagogy and structure of chapters 4
5 rule 5 content provide a clear overview of what the text covers 2
6 rule 6 readability critique the style and clarity of writing 2
7 rule 7 links list and explain linkages to concepts and packages 2
8 rule 8 compare briefly list what other resources are out there and compare 2
9 rule 9 commitment comment on the commitment and effort need to master text 2
10 rule 10 benefits list the main benefits of using this text to learn or solve 2
11 your writing your writing and coherence are graded for clarity, balance, directness, and convincingness 5
12 total sum of above concepts 25