Workflow for Refining ClimateNA Temperature Predictions

BRT model results

Brendan Casey

1 Model summaries

Here are summaries of boosted regression trees that predict differences between ClimateNA temperature predictions and micro-climate conditions. Temperature offset layers and project spatial data can be viewed at https://bgcasey.users.earthengine.app/view/climateoffsets. Code and a description of the project’s workflow can be found at https://github.com/bgcasey/climate_downscaling.

Predictor variables

Table 1.1: Spatial covariates included in top models.

Variable	Description	Resolution (m)	Source
northness	cosign of aspect in radians	23.19	Canada (2015)
TWI	Topographic Wetness Index: ln(α/tanβ)) where α=cumulative upslope drainage area and β is slope (Sørensen & Seibert, 2007)	92.77	Yamazaki et al. (2019)
pr	Precipitation accumulation	4638.30	Abatzoglou et al. (2018)
srad	Downward surface shortwave radiation	4638.30	Abatzoglou et al. (2018)
vs	Wind-speed at 10m	4638.30	Abatzoglou et al. (2018)
CHILI	Continuous Heat-Insolation Load Index	90.00	Theobald et al. (2015)
canopy_height	model trained with GEDI LiDAR to retrieve canopy height from Sentinel-2 images	10.00	Lang et al. (2022)

BRT parameters

Table 1.2: Tuned BRT parameters.

models	tree.complexity	learning.rate	bag.fraction	n.minobsinnode
meanTemp	3	0.1	0.75	10
maxTemp	3	0.1	0.75	10
minTemp	3	0.1	0.75	10

Variable importance

Table 1.3: Variable importance in BRTs.

model_name	srad	tpi_500	TWI	canopy_height	CHILI	tpi_50	northness	vs	pr	season_4
brt_meanTemp_allSeasons	20.50	16.69	11.37	10.38	8.33	7.93	6.62	6.53	6.02	5.63
brt_meanTemp_summer	8.91	19.26	11.26	13.88	8.20	10.23	6.91	7.37	13.99	NA
brt_meanTemp_fall	14.91	17.53	13.88	9.30	8.82	12.38	7.61	7.06	8.51	NA
brt_meanTemp_winter	24.86	10.55	10.67	8.83	7.77	5.12	6.66	14.41	11.14	NA
brt_meanTemp_spring	17.23	22.36	6.98	11.36	7.08	7.06	4.70	12.62	10.61	NA
brt_maxTemp_allSeasons	30.82	11.22	10.54	7.24	6.44	8.45	5.06	5.28	11.52	3.42
brt_maxTemp_summer	11.97	15.80	14.00	8.76	8.54	11.85	6.06	6.00	17.02	NA
brt_maxTemp_fall	32.01	8.95	8.89	6.73	6.37	7.54	4.55	4.44	20.52	NA
brt_maxTemp_winter	29.90	7.11	9.10	7.29	7.19	4.19	4.64	10.82	19.76	NA
brt_maxTemp_spring	23.61	12.71	7.78	7.47	7.15	8.58	4.92	13.16	14.63	NA
brt_minTemp_summer	5.55	19.31	19.05	11.37	11.67	11.36	7.92	5.16	8.61	NA
brt_minTemp_allSeasons	13.81	15.74	15.54	9.73	11.25	9.45	8.36	5.70	6.30	4.13
brt_minTemp_fall	11.04	17.82	17.82	12.07	10.49	11.43	8.52	5.95	4.86	NA
brt_minTemp_winter	17.17	11.48	12.17	9.77	10.31	9.56	7.71	11.72	10.11	NA
brt_minTemp_spring	17.89	16.13	13.72	9.13	9.34	8.36	7.53	9.66	8.25	NA

CV stats

Table 1.4: BRT cv stats.

model_name	deviance.mean	correlation.mean	deviance.null	deviance.explained
maxTemp_allSeasons	0.67	0.92	4.24	0.84
maxTemp_summer	0.26	0.95	2.70	0.90
maxTemp_fall	0.39	0.96	5.01	0.92
maxTemp_winter	0.91	0.90	4.77	0.81
maxTemp_spring	0.33	0.94	2.75	0.88
meanTemp_allSeasons	0.57	0.87	2.40	0.76
meanTemp_summer	0.20	0.94	1.66	0.88
meanTemp_fall	0.29	0.93	2.04	0.86
meanTemp_winter	0.84	0.87	3.42	0.76
meanTemp_spring	0.27	0.94	2.17	0.88
minTemp_allSeasons	0.91	0.88	4.00	0.77
minTemp_summer	0.38	0.93	2.87	0.87
minTemp_fall	0.50	0.92	3.27	0.85
minTemp_winter	1.34	0.89	6.68	0.80
minTemp_spring	0.59	0.90	3.01	0.80

Mean temperature difference

All seasons

Interactions

	tpi_50	tpi_500	canopy_height	srad	vs	northness	TWI	CHILI	pr	season_4
tpi_50	0	203.46	4.08	38.67	9.00	13.58	77.89	46.44	1.53	29.50
tpi_500	0	0.00	25.46	48.92	16.74	11.25	121.99	17.36	8.22	18.01
canopy_height	0	0.00	0.00	34.83	29.65	5.33	1.32	94.77	5.89	4.24
srad	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	122.01	8.29	21.30	18.25	118.51	20.49
vs	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	19.09	21.37	45.68	184.81	36.33
northness	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.22	8.58	0.79	0.22
TWI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.79	4.08	36.41
CHILI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.68	9.29
pr	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	161.72
season_4	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Partial dependance plots

Winter

Interactions

	tpi_50	tpi_500	canopy_height	srad	vs	northness	TWI	CHILI	pr
tpi_50	0	9.4	54.46	7.90	5.17	23.33	13.64	36.51	6.45
tpi_500	0	0.0	5.08	50.02	49.11	7.70	85.52	13.57	15.70
canopy_height	0	0.0	0.00	30.89	24.61	12.83	19.79	17.97	7.08
srad	0	0.0	0.00	0.00	125.21	4.73	36.03	21.60	121.30
vs	0	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.00	35.77	8.71	25.82	225.65
northness	0	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.84	11.81	3.95
TWI	0	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	47.08	112.41
CHILI	0	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	23.33
pr	0	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Partial dependance plots

Spring

Interactions

	tpi_50	tpi_500	canopy_height	srad	vs	northness	TWI	CHILI	pr
tpi_50	0	50.71	10.76	2.28	25.81	7.70	15.43	46.75	1.15
tpi_500	0	0.00	53.45	12.88	73.66	8.46	9.32	10.92	19.63
canopy_height	0	0.00	0.00	10.65	15.54	3.58	8.32	80.09	8.48
srad	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	71.31	3.98	10.75	5.64	142.21
vs	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.13	44.77	28.80	115.64
northness	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.06	4.42	1.25
TWI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.59	2.48
CHILI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.57
pr	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Partial dependance plots

Summer

Interactions

	tpi_50	tpi_500	canopy_height	srad	vs	northness	TWI	CHILI	pr
tpi_50	0	110.71	6.62	5.53	15.80	87.42	64.22	8.72	23.97
tpi_500	0	0.00	33.22	37.22	27.42	4.24	9.41	11.30	15.08
canopy_height	0	0.00	0.00	2.30	10.48	10.39	7.91	67.04	2.26
srad	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	23.49	1.85	1.51	8.62	13.41
vs	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.10	3.42	3.53	31.00
northness	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.01	2.65	0.45
TWI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.35	18.90
CHILI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.11
pr	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Partial dependance plots

Fall

Interactions

	tpi_50	tpi_500	canopy_height	srad	vs	northness	TWI	CHILI	pr
tpi_50	0	76.35	21.31	13.95	7.52	4.33	94.67	19.28	4.87
tpi_500	0	0.00	15.50	9.52	21.11	3.91	60.27	14.59	8.42
canopy_height	0	0.00	0.00	53.30	13.78	3.95	2.70	20.57	1.68
srad	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	34.51	2.77	14.36	9.67	55.03
vs	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.59	5.16	10.14	31.55
northness	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	13.04	1.62	0.97
TWI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.45	0.66
CHILI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.19
pr	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Partial dependance plots

Max temperature difference

all seasons

Interactions

	tpi_50	tpi_500	canopy_height	srad	vs	northness	TWI	CHILI	pr	season_4
tpi_50	0	199.65	2.75	80.71	7.40	19.54	259.44	154.30	14.81	25.72
tpi_500	0	0.00	124.25	43.82	10.53	40.22	31.33	73.61	7.08	14.50
canopy_height	0	0.00	0.00	30.39	30.58	2.68	0.86	106.49	8.73	4.26
srad	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	176.41	8.30	30.79	16.11	122.66	72.26
vs	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	34.67	20.38	30.92	107.97	121.48
northness	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	31.25	9.45	0.94	0.57
TWI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.63	8.99	47.63
CHILI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.45	14.00
pr	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	107.55
season_4	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Partial dependance plots

Winter

Interactions

	tpi_50	tpi_500	canopy_height	srad	vs	northness	TWI	CHILI	pr
tpi_50	0	13.66	32.06	6.22	5.85	15.25	3.20	15.98	5.48
tpi_500	0	0.00	1.10	34.89	53.50	3.11	49.01	3.48	8.24
canopy_height	0	0.00	0.00	29.52	36.89	10.85	12.38	15.05	7.43
srad	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	108.13	6.07	30.91	27.25	166.96
vs	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	29.51	29.22	27.13	48.27
northness	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.09	15.84	1.64
TWI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	21.66	81.50
CHILI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	17.85
pr	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Partial dependance plots

Spring

Interactions

	tpi_50	tpi_500	canopy_height	srad	vs	northness	TWI	CHILI	pr
tpi_50	0	62.51	7.11	100.85	37.00	10.45	42.93	35.70	0.92
tpi_500	0	0.00	8.71	29.21	86.07	2.70	8.05	22.61	17.39
canopy_height	0	0.00	0.00	15.17	15.41	5.03	12.56	42.37	9.18
srad	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	99.10	5.21	12.59	3.57	348.87
vs	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	15.02	17.80	58.40	188.77
northness	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.06	5.22	1.15
TWI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.18	4.81
CHILI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.46
pr	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Partial dependance plots

Summer

Interactions

	tpi_50	tpi_500	canopy_height	srad	vs	northness	TWI	CHILI	pr
tpi_50	0	103.77	8.04	7.62	4.78	36.92	204.94	14.92	22.62
tpi_500	0	0.00	15.42	50.60	5.41	6.29	42.40	41.56	12.65
canopy_height	0	0.00	0.00	2.88	19.80	4.31	7.89	59.35	3.01
srad	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	98.62	2.36	3.55	14.48	47.55
vs	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.91	10.61	3.17	32.48
northness	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	17.74	3.44	0.62
TWI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.38	25.92
CHILI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	13.10
pr	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Partial dependance plots

Fall

Interactions

	tpi_50	tpi_500	canopy_height	srad	vs	northness	TWI	CHILI	pr
tpi_50	0	202.02	29.69	19.65	64.44	37.04	132.43	37.20	8.29
tpi_500	0	0.00	22.00	33.97	57.27	7.25	47.43	18.69	3.51
canopy_height	0	0.00	0.00	53.09	21.41	5.78	6.36	18.23	11.12
srad	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	102.73	4.05	16.19	11.28	173.14
vs	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.77	4.36	4.38	67.37
northness	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.60	4.20	0.77
TWI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	13.40	1.41
CHILI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.81
pr	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Partial dependance plots

Min temperature difference

All seasons

Interactions

	tpi_50	tpi_500	canopy_height	srad	vs	northness	TWI	CHILI	pr	season_4
tpi_50	0	22.98	8.74	9.99	8.94	22.68	13.24	15.94	3.80	39.48
tpi_500	0	0.00	76.42	37.83	25.90	1.21	91.26	13.95	13.74	13.56
canopy_height	0	0.00	0.00	14.58	13.22	5.25	25.54	254.33	14.24	8.21
srad	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	75.67	9.05	33.75	25.45	119.24	50.62
vs	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.84	27.92	29.89	106.55	128.16
northness	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.10	23.18	1.49	0.55
TWI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.42	14.80	45.05
CHILI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.00	11.70
pr	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	325.28
season_4	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Partial dependance plots

Winter

Interactions

	tpi_50	tpi_500	canopy_height	srad	vs	northness	TWI	CHILI	pr
tpi_50	0	12.62	51.63	11.03	7.69	63.20	9.67	13.59	5.58
tpi_500	0	0.00	16.36	27.18	97.10	10.05	58.52	22.24	31.49
canopy_height	0	0.00	0.00	33.61	18.91	44.85	92.56	70.63	11.59
srad	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	350.09	6.60	21.40	42.32	475.06
vs	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	17.40	28.30	28.95	276.90
northness	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	15.44	45.30	2.79
TWI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	254.54	133.93
CHILI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	22.92
pr	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Partial dependance plots

Spring

Interactions

	tpi_50	tpi_500	canopy_height	srad	vs	northness	TWI	CHILI	pr
tpi_50	0	39.7	3.70	3.22	29.26	18.21	28.32	15.41	4.55
tpi_500	0	0.0	4.77	13.58	6.56	3.29	51.55	16.25	10.64
canopy_height	0	0.0	0.00	15.67	11.44	5.08	8.12	74.95	31.85
srad	0	0.0	0.00	0.00	40.93	3.07	30.92	6.71	75.68
vs	0	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.00	15.07	52.96	38.82	95.64
northness	0	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	23.13	2.09	7.32
TWI	0	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.76	4.79
CHILI	0	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.83
pr	0	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Partial dependance plots

Summer

Interactions

	tpi_50	tpi_500	canopy_height	srad	vs	northness	TWI	CHILI	pr
tpi_50	0	35.18	2.59	2.10	4.27	15.20	73.13	2.17	3.49
tpi_500	0	0.00	11.76	12.28	24.03	4.55	151.95	21.20	3.54
canopy_height	0	0.00	0.00	7.79	10.71	23.49	8.45	78.37	3.99
srad	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.66	2.65	4.53	4.21	16.60
vs	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.05	5.51	26.79	14.51
northness	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.81	6.77	3.90
TWI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	98.73	20.97
CHILI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.10
pr	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Partial dependance plots

Fall

Interactions

	tpi_50	tpi_500	canopy_height	srad	vs	northness	TWI	CHILI	pr
tpi_50	0	18.25	7.20	8.19	7.61	21.25	37.11	3.98	3.52
tpi_500	0	0.00	14.26	15.99	19.95	4.09	80.24	34.17	2.41
canopy_height	0	0.00	0.00	96.12	9.58	3.01	8.90	52.76	2.39
srad	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.02	6.22	40.16	17.06	32.60
vs	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.69	6.65	9.20	40.03
northness	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.41	1.93	3.90
TWI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	27.57	2.87
CHILI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.34
pr	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Partial dependance plots