Dispersion
Regressions
Dependent variable is distance between each loan’s rate and the mean rate of the bank granting the loan.
- Take only new loans granted inside each merger’s window.
- Inside each merger keep only banks that never merge or merging banks whose merger happens outside the window.
- Assign
- Merged to each loan granted by the merging banks of the window and
- Post to quarters t+1 to t+4.
- Compute mean rate at bank-quarter level.
- Define loan’s distance to mean as |rate - mean_rate|.
\[
|rate_{ijt}-meanrate_{jt}|=\alpha + \beta Merged_{ijt} + \gamma Post_{t} + \theta Merged_{ijt} \times Post_{t} + u_{ijt}
\]
Unbalanced
The data here correspond to all the new loans in the data.
============================================================================================================================
Merger 1 Merger 2 Merger 3 Merger 4 Merger 5 Merger 6 Merger 7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) -2.76 *** -1.82 *** -0.31 *** -1.60 *** -1.27 *** -0.40 *** 7.82 ***
(0.09) (0.07) (0.07) (0.05) (0.04) (0.04) (0.03)
postTRUE 0.13 *** -0.35 *** -1.32 *** -0.11 *** 0.47 *** -0.09 *** -0.13 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01)
mergedTRUE 10.80 *** -2.15 *** 2.52 *** 2.12 *** 1.57 *** 2.22 *** 1.39 ***
(0.18) (0.02) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.04) (0.04)
log(balance) 0.41 *** 0.36 *** 0.28 *** 0.28 *** 0.25 *** 0.21 *** -0.06 ***
(0.01) (0.00) (0.01) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00)
term/365 -0.00 0.00 * -0.11 *** 0.00 *** 0.00 *** 0.00 *** -0.00
(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01)
postTRUE:mergedTRUE -9.39 *** -0.15 *** -1.14 *** -1.88 *** -1.02 *** -0.49 *** -0.18 **
(0.19) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.02) (0.05) (0.05)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Num. obs. 291864 308359 197155 345421 441494 308405 460436
R^2 0.16 0.14 0.14 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.01
============================================================================================================================
Dependent variable: distance between loan's rate and bank mean rate.
Clustered standard errors (bank).
============================================================================================================================
Merger 1 Merger 2 Merger 3 Merger 4 Merger 5 Merger 6 Merger 7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) -3.09 *** -1.13 *** -0.31 *** -1.60 *** -1.27 *** -0.40 *** 7.80 ***
(0.08) (0.06) (0.07) (0.05) (0.04) (0.04) (0.03)
postTRUE 0.12 *** -0.34 *** -1.32 *** -0.11 *** 0.47 *** -0.09 *** -0.13 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01)
mergedTRUE 8.21 *** -2.75 *** 2.52 *** 2.12 *** 1.54 *** 2.22 *** 1.15 ***
(0.11) (0.01) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.04) (0.04)
tarTRUE 5.79 *** 12.14 *** -0.02 0.20 *** 0.87 ***
(0.25) (0.18) (0.05) (0.03) (0.06)
log(balance) 0.43 *** 0.32 *** 0.28 *** 0.28 *** 0.25 *** 0.21 *** -0.06 ***
(0.01) (0.00) (0.01) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00)
term/365 -0.00 0.00 * -0.11 *** 0.00 *** 0.00 *** 0.00 *** -0.00
(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01)
postTRUE:mergedTRUE -8.25 *** 0.30 *** -1.14 *** -1.88 *** -1.00 *** -0.49 *** -0.08
(0.15) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.02) (0.05) (0.05)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Num. obs. 291864 308359 197155 345421 441494 308405 460436
R^2 0.17 0.19 0.14 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.01
============================================================================================================================
Dependent variable: distance between loan's rate and bank mean rate.
Clustered standard errors (bank).
============================================================================================================================
Merger 1 Merger 2 Merger 3 Merger 4 Merger 5 Merger 6 Merger 7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) -3.09 *** -1.13 *** -0.31 *** -1.60 *** -1.27 *** -0.40 *** 7.80 ***
(0.08) (0.06) (0.07) (0.05) (0.04) (0.04) (0.03)
postTRUE 0.12 *** -0.34 *** -1.32 *** -0.11 *** 0.47 *** -0.09 *** -0.13 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01)
mergedTRUE 8.21 *** -2.75 *** 2.52 *** 2.12 *** 1.54 *** 2.22 *** 1.15 ***
(0.11) (0.01) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.04) (0.04)
tarTRUE 5.79 *** 12.14 *** -0.02 0.20 *** 0.87 ***
(0.25) (0.18) (0.05) (0.03) (0.06)
log(balance) 0.43 *** 0.32 *** 0.28 *** 0.28 *** 0.25 *** 0.21 *** -0.06 ***
(0.01) (0.00) (0.01) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00)
term/365 -0.00 0.00 * -0.11 *** 0.00 *** 0.00 *** 0.00 *** -0.00
(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01)
postTRUE:mergedTRUE -8.25 *** 0.30 *** -1.14 *** -1.88 *** -1.00 *** -0.49 *** -0.08
(0.15) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.02) (0.05) (0.05)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Num. obs. 291864 308359 197155 345421 441494 308405 460436
R^2 0.17 0.19 0.14 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.01
============================================================================================================================
Dependent variable: distance between loan's rate and bank mean rate.
Clustered standard errors (bank).
Unbalanced (term dispersion)
Here the dependent variable is term
============================================================================================================================
Merger 1 Merger 2 Merger 3 Merger 4 Merger 5 Merger 6 Merger 7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) 2.50 *** 2.77 ** 2.01 *** -4.72 *** 4.02 * -5.01 *** 1.93 ***
(0.22) (0.87) (0.02) (0.93) (1.59) (1.00) (0.04)
postTRUE 0.43 *** 1.83 *** 0.53 *** 7.87 *** 14.54 *** 7.90 *** 0.17 ***
(0.11) (0.25) (0.02) (0.47) (0.53) (0.48) (0.01)
mergedTRUE 2.53 *** 0.21 -0.19 *** 0.06 2.98 *** 2.30 *** 1.35 ***
(0.12) (0.27) (0.01) (0.05) (0.50) (0.06) (0.06)
rate -0.07 *** -0.08 -0.05 *** 0.26 *** -0.13 0.27 *** -0.00
(0.01) (0.04) (0.00) (0.04) (0.07) (0.04) (0.00)
balance/1e+06 0.00 0.00 ** 0.00 ** 0.00 *** 0.00 *** 0.00 *** 0.00 ***
(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00)
postTRUE:mergedTRUE -0.94 *** -1.57 *** -0.59 *** -7.62 *** 87.72 *** -8.06 *** -0.50 ***
(0.22) (0.25) (0.02) (0.47) (2.67) (0.37) (0.08)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Num. obs. 291864 308359 197155 345421 441494 308405 460436
R^2 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00
============================================================================================================================
Dependent variable: distance between a loan's term and bank mean term
Clustered standard errors (bank).
Unbalanced (no absolute value)
The data here correspond to all the new loans in the data. Dependent variable is spread minus average rate at bank.
\[
rate_{ijt}-meanrate_{jt}=\alpha + \beta Merged_{ijt} + \gamma Post_{t} + \theta Merged_{ijt} \times Post_{t} + u_{ijt}
\]
============================================================================================================================
Merger 1 Merger 2 Merger 3 Merger 4 Merger 5 Merger 6 Merger 7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) 17.72 *** 14.09 *** 14.30 *** 10.59 *** 12.26 *** 7.36 *** 26.33 ***
(0.12) (0.09) (0.11) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06) (0.12)
postTRUE 0.36 *** 0.19 *** -0.21 *** 0.22 *** 0.25 *** 0.15 *** -0.54 ***
(0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.04)
mergedTRUE -1.37 *** -1.44 *** 0.02 0.43 *** 0.42 *** -0.29 *** -1.83 ***
(0.24) (0.03) (0.05) (0.04) (0.02) (0.08) (0.07)
log(balance) -1.10 *** -0.86 *** -0.86 *** -0.66 *** -0.77 *** -0.46 *** -1.53 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.02)
term/365 -0.00 *** 0.00 -0.00 0.00 *** -0.00 * 0.00 *** -0.13
(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.07)
postTRUE:mergedTRUE 0.02 -0.22 *** 0.50 *** -0.18 *** -0.20 *** -0.63 *** 1.98 ***
(0.25) (0.03) (0.06) (0.04) (0.03) (0.09) (0.13)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Num. obs. 291864 308359 197155 345421 441494 308405 460436
R^2 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.14 0.16 0.09 0.40
============================================================================================================================
Dependent variable: distance between loan's rate and bank mean rate.
Clustered standard errors (bank).
Balanced
The data here correspond to existing firm-bank relations in t-4 that get new loans in t+1 through t+4. It is balanced in the sense that we keep relationships that are active before and after the merger.
====================================================================================================================================
Merger 1 Merger 2 Merger 3 Merger 4 Merger 5 Merger 6 Merger 7 Pooled
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) -3.41 *** -2.32 *** 0.39 * -5.11 *** -4.08 *** -3.63 *** 8.34 *** -0.93 ***
(0.19) (0.15) (0.19) (0.17) (0.13) (0.19) (0.06) (0.06)
postTRUE -0.17 *** -0.69 *** -2.42 *** -0.09 0.53 *** 0.22 *** 0.39 *** -0.19 ***
(0.04) (0.04) (0.10) (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.03) (0.02)
mergedTRUE 14.69 *** -3.74 *** -0.06 2.14 *** 1.08 *** 0.40 1.16 *** -0.42 ***
(0.55) (0.03) (0.10) (0.06) (0.05) (0.74) (0.07) (0.02)
log(balance) 0.51 *** 0.44 *** 0.39 *** 0.52 *** 0.45 *** 0.41 *** -0.05 *** 0.37 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.00) (0.00)
term/365 -0.21 *** 0.00 -0.24 *** 0.00 *** 0.00 *** 0.00 *** 0.00 0.00 ***
(0.03) (0.00) (0.03) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.00)
postTRUE:mergedTRUE -13.27 *** 0.56 *** -0.04 -2.46 *** -1.25 *** 1.40 -0.98 *** -1.02 ***
(0.59) (0.05) (0.10) (0.07) (0.06) (0.89) (0.10) (0.03)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Num. obs. 53054 52630 23673 48316 63147 34149 76122 395047
R^2 0.21 0.30 0.10 0.14 0.10 0.07 0.01 0.06
====================================================================================================================================
Dependent variable: distance between loan's rate and bank mean rate.
Clustered standard errors (bank).
\begin{table}
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c c c c}
\hline
& Merger 1 & Merger 2 & Merger 3 & Merger 4 & Merger 5 & Merger 6 & Merger 7 \\
\hline
(Intercept) & $-3.41^{***}$ & $-2.32^{***}$ & $0.39^{*}$ & $-5.11^{***}$ & $-4.08^{***}$ & $-3.63^{***}$ & $8.34^{***}$ \\
& $(0.19)$ & $(0.15)$ & $(0.19)$ & $(0.17)$ & $(0.13)$ & $(0.19)$ & $(0.06)$ \\
postTRUE & $-0.17^{***}$ & $-0.69^{***}$ & $-2.42^{***}$ & $-0.09$ & $0.53^{***}$ & $0.22^{***}$ & $0.39^{***}$ \\
& $(0.04)$ & $(0.04)$ & $(0.10)$ & $(0.05)$ & $(0.05)$ & $(0.05)$ & $(0.03)$ \\
mergedTRUE & $14.69^{***}$ & $-3.74^{***}$ & $-0.06$ & $2.14^{***}$ & $1.08^{***}$ & $0.40$ & $1.16^{***}$ \\
& $(0.55)$ & $(0.03)$ & $(0.10)$ & $(0.06)$ & $(0.05)$ & $(0.74)$ & $(0.07)$ \\
log(balance) & $0.51^{***}$ & $0.44^{***}$ & $0.39^{***}$ & $0.52^{***}$ & $0.45^{***}$ & $0.41^{***}$ & $-0.05^{***}$ \\
& $(0.01)$ & $(0.01)$ & $(0.01)$ & $(0.01)$ & $(0.01)$ & $(0.01)$ & $(0.00)$ \\
term/365 & $-0.21^{***}$ & $0.00$ & $-0.24^{***}$ & $0.00^{***}$ & $0.00^{***}$ & $0.00^{***}$ & $0.00$ \\
& $(0.03)$ & $(0.00)$ & $(0.03)$ & $(0.00)$ & $(0.00)$ & $(0.00)$ & $(0.01)$ \\
postTRUE:mergedTRUE & $-13.27^{***}$ & $0.56^{***}$ & $-0.04$ & $-2.46^{***}$ & $-1.25^{***}$ & $1.40$ & $-0.98^{***}$ \\
& $(0.59)$ & $(0.05)$ & $(0.10)$ & $(0.07)$ & $(0.06)$ & $(0.89)$ & $(0.10)$ \\
\hline
Num. obs. & $53054$ & $52630$ & $23673$ & $48316$ & $63147$ & $34149$ & $76122$ \\
R$^2$ & $0.21$ & $0.30$ & $0.10$ & $0.14$ & $0.10$ & $0.07$ & $0.01$ \\
\hline
\multicolumn{8}{l}{\scriptsize{Dependent variable: distance between loan's rate and bank mean rate.
Clustered standard errors (bank).}}
\end{tabular}
\caption{Statistical models}
\label{table:coefficients}
\end{center}
\end{table}
Balanced (no absolute value)
====================================================================================================================================
Merger 1 Merger 2 Merger 3 Merger 4 Merger 5 Merger 6 Merger 7 Pooled
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) 19.42 *** 16.49 *** 18.22 *** 13.67 *** 15.24 *** 9.54 *** 27.80 *** 18.43 ***
(0.28) (0.23) (0.38) (0.20) (0.18) (0.21) (0.18) (0.08)
postTRUE 0.31 *** 0.47 *** -0.51 *** 0.37 *** 0.17 ** 0.43 *** -1.10 *** -0.06 **
(0.05) (0.06) (0.13) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06) (0.05) (0.02)
mergedTRUE 4.47 *** -0.37 *** -0.20 -0.49 *** -0.47 *** -0.43 -1.15 *** -0.44 ***
(0.72) (0.05) (0.15) (0.09) (0.07) (0.95) (0.14) (0.03)
log(balance) -1.18 *** -1.03 *** -1.06 *** -0.84 *** -0.93 *** -0.59 *** -1.57 *** -1.10 ***
(0.02) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)
term/365 -0.27 *** 0.00 -0.18 *** 0.00 *** -0.00 *** 0.00 *** -0.03 -0.00 *
(0.04) (0.00) (0.03) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.04) (0.00)
postTRUE:mergedTRUE -4.68 *** -0.56 *** 0.73 *** 0.55 *** -0.03 0.09 3.01 *** 0.33 ***
(0.82) (0.07) (0.16) (0.10) (0.08) (1.48) (0.22) (0.04)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Num. obs. 53054 52630 23673 48316 63147 34149 76122 395047
R^2 0.22 0.22 0.16 0.15 0.20 0.09 0.35 0.22
====================================================================================================================================
Dependent variable: distance between loan's rate and bank mean rate.
Clustered standard errors (bank).
Only new relations
New relations after the merger are bank-firm pairs that do not exist in t-4 matched to new loans granted in t+1 through t+4. New relations before the merger are defined similarly but starting at 2 years prior to the merger.
\begin{table}
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c c c c}
\hline
& Merger 1 & Merger 2 & Merger 3 & Merger 4 & Merger 5 & Merger 6 & Merger 7 \\
\hline
(Intercept) & $-1.53^{***}$ & $-1.47^{***}$ & $1.10^{***}$ & $-0.53^{***}$ & $-0.36^{***}$ & $1.16^{***}$ & $8.51^{***}$ \\
& $(0.11)$ & $(0.08)$ & $(0.07)$ & $(0.05)$ & $(0.05)$ & $(0.04)$ & $(0.04)$ \\
newpost & $0.56^{***}$ & $0.52^{***}$ & $-1.05^{***}$ & $0.04^{*}$ & $0.38^{***}$ & $-0.16^{***}$ & $-0.07^{***}$ \\
& $(0.02)$ & $(0.01)$ & $(0.02)$ & $(0.02)$ & $(0.02)$ & $(0.02)$ & $(0.02)$ \\
mergedTRUE & $16.55^{***}$ & $-1.85^{***}$ & $2.33^{***}$ & $3.55^{***}$ & $2.02^{***}$ & $1.84^{***}$ & $1.11^{***}$ \\
& $(0.21)$ & $(0.02)$ & $(0.03)$ & $(0.04)$ & $(0.02)$ & $(0.09)$ & $(0.06)$ \\
log(balance) & $0.30^{***}$ & $0.27^{***}$ & $0.15^{***}$ & $0.20^{***}$ & $0.19^{***}$ & $0.11^{***}$ & $-0.14^{***}$ \\
& $(0.01)$ & $(0.00)$ & $(0.01)$ & $(0.00)$ & $(0.00)$ & $(0.00)$ & $(0.00)$ \\
term/365 & $-0.00$ & $0.00^{**}$ & $-0.06^{***}$ & $0.00^{***}$ & $0.00^{***}$ & $0.00^{***}$ & $0.04^{*}$ \\
& $(0.00)$ & $(0.00)$ & $(0.00)$ & $(0.00)$ & $(0.00)$ & $(0.00)$ & $(0.02)$ \\
newpost:mergedTRUE & $-15.09^{***}$ & $-0.07^{*}$ & $-0.69^{***}$ & $-3.25^{***}$ & $-1.36^{***}$ & $-0.22^{*}$ & $0.36^{***}$ \\
& $(0.21)$ & $(0.03)$ & $(0.04)$ & $(0.04)$ & $(0.03)$ & $(0.09)$ & $(0.08)$ \\
\hline
Num. obs. & $176805$ & $203876$ & $149423$ & $229785$ & $281114$ & $228762$ & $282507$ \\
R$^2$ & $0.29$ & $0.11$ & $0.13$ & $0.07$ & $0.06$ & $0.03$ & $0.02$ \\
\hline
\multicolumn{8}{l}{\scriptsize{Dependent variable: distance between loan's rate and bank mean rate.
Clustered standard errors (bank).
Relations that didnt exist one year before and that formed after the merger.}}
\end{tabular}
\caption{Statistical models}
\label{table:coefficients}
\end{center}
\end{table}
===========================================================================================================================
Merger 1 Merger 2 Merger 3 Merger 4 Merger 5 Merger 6 Merger 7
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) -2.14 *** -1.22 *** 1.10 *** -0.53 *** -0.32 *** 1.16 *** 8.50 ***
(0.11) (0.07) (0.07) (0.05) (0.05) (0.04) (0.04)
newpost 0.55 *** 0.53 *** -1.05 *** 0.04 * 0.38 *** -0.16 *** -0.07 ***
(0.02) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02)
mergedTRUE 13.50 *** -2.15 *** 2.33 *** 3.55 *** 1.88 *** 1.84 *** 0.81 ***
(0.14) (0.01) (0.03) (0.04) (0.02) (0.09) (0.07)
tarTRUE 8.80 *** 11.78 *** 0.05 0.69 *** 1.62 ***
(0.31) (0.39) (0.09) (0.04) (0.13)
log(balance) 0.33 *** 0.26 *** 0.15 *** 0.20 *** 0.19 *** 0.11 *** -0.14 ***
(0.01) (0.00) (0.01) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00)
term/365 0.00 0.00 ** -0.06 *** 0.00 *** 0.00 *** 0.00 *** 0.04 *
(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.02)
newpost:mergedTRUE -13.81 *** 0.17 *** -0.69 *** -3.25 *** -1.27 *** -0.22 * 0.49 ***
(0.18) (0.03) (0.04) (0.04) (0.03) (0.09) (0.08)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Num. obs. 176805 203876 149423 229785 281114 228762 282507
R^2 0.33 0.13 0.13 0.07 0.07 0.03 0.02
===========================================================================================================================
Dependent variable: distance between loan's rate and bank mean rate.
Clustered standard errors (bank).
Relations that didnt exist one year before and that formed after the merger.
Continue
Take relations that end close to the merger and see whether they are more or less likely to be continued (get new loan with the same banks) for merged and above.
Serious take
\[ \Pr(continue_{ijt}) = \Phi \Big( \alpha + \beta Merged_{ij} + \gamma Post_t + \theta Post_t \times Merged_{ij} + u_{ijt}\Big)
\]
=================================================================================================================================
Merger 1 Merger 2 Merger 3 Merger 4 Merger 5 Merger 6 Merger 7
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) -0.31 *** -0.47 *** -1.41 *** -1.05 *** -1.05 *** -0.30 *** -0.32 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.00)
newpost -0.19 *** -0.05 *** 0.43 *** 0.56 *** 0.53 *** -0.21 *** -0.46 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)
mergedTRUE -0.02 0.45 *** 1.27 *** 1.55 *** 1.10 *** -0.47 *** 0.28 ***
(0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.03) (0.02)
newpost:mergedTRUE -1.10 *** -0.08 *** -0.43 *** -0.42 *** -0.65 *** -0.66 *** 0.01
(0.05) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.06) (0.03)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AIC 316196.10 317217.90 181106.13 252145.55 415700.31 337381.02 640341.64
BIC 316237.62 317259.40 181145.93 252186.42 415743.02 337422.76 640386.06
Log Likelihood -158094.05 -158604.95 -90549.07 -126068.77 -207846.16 -168686.51 -320166.82
Deviance 316188.10 317209.90 181098.13 252137.55 415692.31 337373.02 640333.64
Num. obs. 237853 236915 154825 202313 320291 251955 491107
=================================================================================================================================
Dependent variable: probability of firm-bank continuing relation.
Continue: firm-bank relationship exists in t-4, gets new loan in t+1 through t+4
===========================================================================================================================================
Merger 1 Merger 2 Merger 3 Merger 4 Merger 5 Merger 6 Merger 7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) -0.41 *** -0.52 *** -1.30 *** -1.64 *** -1.73 *** 0.01 -0.13 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01)
newpost -0.06 *** 0.34 *** 0.55 *** 0.83 *** 0.86 *** -0.85 *** -0.69 ***
(0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01)
mergedTRUE 0.31 *** -0.42 *** 1.70 *** 2.20 *** 2.08 *** -1.94 *** 0.10 ***
(0.04) (0.10) (0.03) (0.04) (0.02) (0.08) (0.03)
aboveTRUE 0.16 *** 0.09 *** -0.22 *** 0.89 *** 1.02 *** -0.73 *** -0.40 ***
(0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01)
newpost:mergedTRUE -1.91 *** -1.41 *** -0.96 *** -0.58 *** -0.95 *** 0.13 0.53 ***
(0.06) (0.12) (0.04) (0.05) (0.03) (0.13) (0.04)
newpost:aboveTRUE -0.20 *** -0.65 *** -0.19 *** -0.43 *** -0.51 *** 1.20 *** 0.48 ***
(0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01)
mergedTRUE:aboveTRUE -0.73 *** 0.86 *** -0.74 *** -0.96 *** -1.48 *** 2.29 *** 0.38 ***
(0.06) (0.10) (0.04) (0.04) (0.03) (0.09) (0.04)
newpost:mergedTRUE:aboveTRUE 1.78 *** 1.69 *** 0.87 *** 0.26 *** 0.42 *** -1.37 *** -1.03 ***
(0.09) (0.12) (0.05) (0.06) (0.03) (0.15) (0.06)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AIC 315752.23 313881.91 179169.51 248494.74 408750.33 331256.60 637874.89
BIC 315835.26 313964.92 179249.11 248576.48 408835.75 331340.09 637963.73
Log Likelihood -157868.11 -156932.96 -89576.75 -124239.37 -204367.17 -165620.30 -318929.45
Deviance 315736.23 313865.91 179153.51 248478.74 408734.33 331240.60 637858.89
Num. obs. 237853 236915 154825 202313 320291 251955 491107
===========================================================================================================================================
Dependent variable: probability of firm-bank continuing relation.
Continue: firm-bank relationship exists in t-4, gets new loan in t+1 through t+4
===========================================================================================================================================
Merger 1 Merger 2 Merger 3 Merger 4 Merger 5 Merger 6 Merger 7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) -1.24 *** -1.19 *** -2.16 *** -2.43 *** -2.56 *** -0.40 *** -0.67 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01)
debt -0.00 *** -0.00 *** -0.00 *** -0.00 *** -0.00 *** -0.00 *** -0.00 ***
(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00)
nrel 0.45 *** 0.36 *** 0.42 *** 0.43 *** 0.44 *** 0.31 *** 0.23 ***
(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00)
newpost -0.11 *** 0.29 *** 0.56 *** 0.78 *** 0.84 *** -1.01 *** -0.75 ***
(0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01)
mergedTRUE 0.27 *** -0.31 ** 1.62 *** 1.95 *** 2.07 *** -2.12 *** -0.19 ***
(0.04) (0.10) (0.03) (0.04) (0.02) (0.09) (0.03)
aboveTRUE 0.32 *** 0.25 *** 0.04 1.05 *** 1.19 *** -0.77 *** -0.27 ***
(0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01)
newpost:mergedTRUE -2.17 *** -1.80 *** -1.02 *** -0.47 *** -0.92 *** 0.34 * 0.50 ***
(0.07) (0.12) (0.04) (0.05) (0.03) (0.14) (0.04)
newpost:aboveTRUE -0.16 *** -0.60 *** -0.18 *** -0.37 *** -0.47 *** 1.37 *** 0.50 ***
(0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01)
mergedTRUE:aboveTRUE -0.74 *** 0.73 *** -0.69 *** -0.90 *** -1.43 *** 2.25 *** 0.62 ***
(0.07) (0.10) (0.04) (0.05) (0.03) (0.10) (0.04)
newpost:mergedTRUE:aboveTRUE 1.91 *** 2.04 *** 0.85 *** 0.20 *** 0.37 *** -1.46 *** -1.01 ***
(0.10) (0.13) (0.05) (0.06) (0.03) (0.15) (0.06)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AIC 299485.02 304277.42 168761.61 236645.43 391240.82 324810.50 621956.04
BIC 299588.81 304381.17 168861.12 236747.61 391347.59 324914.87 622067.08
Log Likelihood -149732.51 -152128.71 -84370.81 -118312.72 -195610.41 -162395.25 -310968.02
Deviance 299465.02 304257.42 168741.61 236625.43 391220.82 324790.50 621936.04
Num. obs. 237853 236915 154825 202313 320291 251955 491107
===========================================================================================================================================
Dependent variable: probability of firm-bank continuing relation.
Continue: firm-bank relationship exists in t-4, gets new loan in t+1 through t+4
=================================================================================================================================
Merger 1 Merger 2 Merger 3 Merger 4 Merger 5 Merger 6 Merger 7
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) -0.31 *** -0.47 *** -1.41 *** -1.05 *** -1.05 *** -0.30 *** -0.32 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.00)
tarTRUE 0.02 -1.03 *** -1.54 *** -0.48 *** 0.50 ***
(0.05) (0.06) (0.03) (0.01) (0.03)
newpost -0.19 *** -0.05 *** 0.43 *** 0.56 *** 0.53 *** -0.21 *** -0.46 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)
mergedTRUE -0.03 0.46 *** 1.62 *** 1.55 *** 1.19 *** -0.47 *** 0.16 ***
(0.04) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.03) (0.02)
newpost:mergedTRUE -1.10 *** -0.05 ** -0.68 *** -0.42 *** -0.66 *** -0.66 *** -0.03
(0.05) (0.02) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.06) (0.03)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AIC 316197.90 316881.22 178206.39 252145.55 414655.64 337381.02 640081.82
BIC 316249.79 316933.09 178256.14 252186.42 414709.02 337422.76 640137.34
Log Likelihood -158093.95 -158435.61 -89098.19 -126068.77 -207322.82 -168686.51 -320035.91
Deviance 316187.90 316871.22 178196.39 252137.55 414645.64 337373.02 640071.82
Num. obs. 237853 236915 154825 202313 320291 251955 491107
=================================================================================================================================
Dependent variable: probability of firm-bank continuing relation.
Continue: firm-bank relationship exists in t-4, gets new loan in t+1 through t+4
===========================================================================================================================================
Merger 1 Merger 2 Merger 3 Merger 4 Merger 5 Merger 6 Merger 7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) -0.41 *** -0.52 *** -1.30 *** -1.64 *** -1.73 *** 0.01 -0.13 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01)
tarTRUE -0.47 *** 0.34 *** -1.40 *** -0.55 *** 0.64 ***
(0.07) (0.08) (0.03) (0.02) (0.03)
newpost -0.06 *** 0.34 *** 0.55 *** 0.83 *** 0.86 *** -0.85 *** -0.69 ***
(0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01)
mergedTRUE 0.51 *** -0.54 *** 1.85 *** 2.20 *** 2.22 *** -1.94 *** -0.02
(0.05) (0.10) (0.03) (0.04) (0.02) (0.08) (0.03)
aboveTRUE 0.16 *** 0.09 *** -0.22 *** 0.89 *** 1.02 *** -0.73 *** -0.40 ***
(0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01)
newpost:mergedTRUE -2.05 *** -1.48 *** -0.96 *** -0.58 *** -0.97 *** 0.13 0.56 ***
(0.07) (0.12) (0.04) (0.05) (0.03) (0.13) (0.04)
newpost:aboveTRUE -0.20 *** -0.65 *** -0.19 *** -0.43 *** -0.51 *** 1.20 *** 0.48 ***
(0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01)
mergedTRUE:aboveTRUE -0.46 *** 0.96 *** -0.44 *** -0.96 *** -1.52 *** 2.29 *** 0.32 ***
(0.08) (0.10) (0.04) (0.04) (0.03) (0.09) (0.04)
newpost:mergedTRUE:aboveTRUE 1.93 *** 1.76 *** 0.49 *** 0.26 *** 0.41 *** -1.37 *** -1.17 ***
(0.10) (0.12) (0.05) (0.06) (0.03) (0.15) (0.06)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AIC 315709.23 313865.54 176922.63 248494.74 407398.71 331256.60 637478.49
BIC 315802.65 313958.92 177012.18 248576.48 407494.80 331340.09 637578.43
Log Likelihood -157845.62 -156923.77 -88452.31 -124239.37 -203690.35 -165620.30 -318730.25
Deviance 315691.23 313847.54 176904.63 248478.74 407380.71 331240.60 637460.49
Num. obs. 237853 236915 154825 202313 320291 251955 491107
===========================================================================================================================================
Dependent variable: probability of firm-bank continuing relation.
Continue: firm-bank relationship exists in t-4, gets new loan in t+1 through t+4
===========================================================================================================================================
Merger 1 Merger 2 Merger 3 Merger 4 Merger 5 Merger 6 Merger 7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) -1.24 *** -1.19 *** -2.19 *** -2.43 *** -2.55 *** -0.40 *** -0.67 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01)
tarTRUE -0.47 *** -0.38 *** -1.73 *** -0.56 *** 0.69 ***
(0.07) (0.09) (0.03) (0.02) (0.03)
debt -0.00 *** -0.00 *** -0.00 *** -0.00 *** -0.00 *** -0.00 *** -0.00 ***
(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00)
nrel 0.45 *** 0.36 *** 0.44 *** 0.43 *** 0.44 *** 0.31 *** 0.23 ***
(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00)
newpost -0.11 *** 0.29 *** 0.56 *** 0.78 *** 0.84 *** -1.01 *** -0.75 ***
(0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01)
mergedTRUE 0.48 *** -0.20 1.79 *** 1.95 *** 2.21 *** -2.12 *** -0.32 ***
(0.05) (0.10) (0.03) (0.04) (0.02) (0.09) (0.03)
aboveTRUE 0.32 *** 0.25 *** 0.05 1.05 *** 1.19 *** -0.77 *** -0.27 ***
(0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01)
newpost:mergedTRUE -2.31 *** -1.68 *** -1.01 *** -0.47 *** -0.94 *** 0.34 * 0.54 ***
(0.07) (0.13) (0.04) (0.05) (0.03) (0.14) (0.04)
newpost:aboveTRUE -0.16 *** -0.60 *** -0.18 *** -0.37 *** -0.47 *** 1.37 *** 0.50 ***
(0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01)
mergedTRUE:aboveTRUE -0.48 *** 0.62 *** -0.35 *** -0.90 *** -1.47 *** 2.25 *** 0.55 ***
(0.08) (0.11) (0.04) (0.05) (0.03) (0.10) (0.04)
newpost:mergedTRUE:aboveTRUE 2.04 *** 1.91 *** 0.42 *** 0.20 *** 0.37 *** -1.46 *** -1.16 ***
(0.10) (0.13) (0.05) (0.06) (0.03) (0.15) (0.06)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AIC 299444.65 304259.56 165806.78 236645.43 389934.15 324810.50 621514.71
BIC 299558.83 304373.69 165916.23 236747.61 390051.60 324914.87 621636.86
Log Likelihood -149711.33 -152118.78 -82892.39 -118312.72 -194956.08 -162395.25 -310746.35
Deviance 299422.65 304237.56 165784.78 236625.43 389912.15 324790.50 621492.71
Num. obs. 237853 236915 154825 202313 320291 251955 491107
===========================================================================================================================================
Dependent variable: probability of firm-bank continuing relation.
Continue: firm-bank relationship exists in t-4, gets new loan in t+1 through t+4
With extreme balances
=================================================================================================================================
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6 Model 7
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) -0.31 *** -0.47 *** -1.41 *** -1.05 *** -1.05 *** -0.30 *** -0.32 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.00)
newpost -0.19 *** -0.05 *** 0.43 *** 0.56 *** 0.53 *** -0.21 *** -0.46 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)
mergedTRUE -0.02 0.45 *** 1.27 *** 1.55 *** 1.10 *** -0.47 *** 0.28 ***
(0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.03) (0.02)
newpost:mergedTRUE -1.10 *** -0.08 *** -0.43 *** -0.42 *** -0.65 *** -0.66 *** 0.01
(0.05) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.06) (0.03)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AIC 316196.10 317217.90 181106.13 252145.55 415700.31 337381.02 640341.64
BIC 316237.62 317259.40 181145.93 252186.42 415743.02 337422.76 640386.06
Log Likelihood -158094.05 -158604.95 -90549.07 -126068.77 -207846.16 -168686.51 -320166.82
Deviance 316188.10 317209.90 181098.13 252137.55 415692.31 337373.02 640333.64
Num. obs. 237853 236915 154825 202313 320291 251955 491107
=================================================================================================================================
*** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05
===========================================================================================================================================
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6 Model 7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) -0.41 *** -0.52 *** -1.30 *** -1.64 *** -1.73 *** 0.01 -0.13 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01)
newpost -0.06 *** 0.34 *** 0.55 *** 0.83 *** 0.86 *** -0.85 *** -0.69 ***
(0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01)
mergedTRUE 0.31 *** -0.42 *** 1.70 *** 2.20 *** 2.08 *** -1.94 *** 0.10 ***
(0.04) (0.10) (0.03) (0.04) (0.02) (0.08) (0.03)
aboveTRUE 0.16 *** 0.09 *** -0.22 *** 0.89 *** 1.02 *** -0.73 *** -0.40 ***
(0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01)
newpost:mergedTRUE -1.91 *** -1.41 *** -0.96 *** -0.58 *** -0.95 *** 0.13 0.53 ***
(0.06) (0.12) (0.04) (0.05) (0.03) (0.13) (0.04)
newpost:aboveTRUE -0.20 *** -0.65 *** -0.19 *** -0.43 *** -0.51 *** 1.20 *** 0.48 ***
(0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01)
mergedTRUE:aboveTRUE -0.73 *** 0.86 *** -0.74 *** -0.96 *** -1.48 *** 2.29 *** 0.38 ***
(0.06) (0.10) (0.04) (0.04) (0.03) (0.09) (0.04)
newpost:mergedTRUE:aboveTRUE 1.78 *** 1.69 *** 0.87 *** 0.26 *** 0.42 *** -1.37 *** -1.03 ***
(0.09) (0.12) (0.05) (0.06) (0.03) (0.15) (0.06)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AIC 315752.23 313881.91 179169.51 248494.74 408750.33 331256.60 637874.89
BIC 315835.26 313964.92 179249.11 248576.48 408835.75 331340.09 637963.73
Log Likelihood -157868.11 -156932.96 -89576.75 -124239.37 -204367.17 -165620.30 -318929.45
Deviance 315736.23 313865.91 179153.51 248478.74 408734.33 331240.60 637858.89
Num. obs. 237853 236915 154825 202313 320291 251955 491107
===========================================================================================================================================
*** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05
===========================================================================================================================================
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6 Model 7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) -0.58 *** -0.63 *** -1.43 *** -1.72 *** -1.84 *** 0.03 *** -0.19 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01)
newpost -0.08 *** 0.32 *** 0.57 *** 0.83 *** 0.86 *** -0.84 *** -0.69 ***
(0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01)
mergedTRUE 0.41 *** -0.44 *** 1.75 *** 2.20 *** 2.06 *** -1.94 *** 0.10 ***
(0.04) (0.10) (0.03) (0.04) (0.02) (0.08) (0.03)
aboveTRUE 0.29 *** 0.18 *** -0.12 *** 0.93 *** 1.06 *** -0.74 *** -0.35 ***
(0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01)
above_balTRUE 0.62 *** 0.39 *** 0.40 *** 0.35 *** 0.43 *** -0.09 *** 0.28 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)
newpost:mergedTRUE -1.92 *** -1.43 *** -0.97 *** -0.63 *** -0.92 *** 0.12 0.53 ***
(0.06) (0.12) (0.04) (0.05) (0.03) (0.13) (0.04)
newpost:aboveTRUE -0.18 *** -0.63 *** -0.23 *** -0.43 *** -0.51 *** 1.19 *** 0.48 ***
(0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01)
mergedTRUE:aboveTRUE -0.80 *** 0.84 *** -0.75 *** -0.96 *** -1.41 *** 2.28 *** 0.38 ***
(0.06) (0.10) (0.04) (0.04) (0.03) (0.09) (0.04)
newpost:mergedTRUE:aboveTRUE 1.80 *** 1.72 *** 0.90 *** 0.33 *** 0.40 *** -1.37 *** -1.03 ***
(0.09) (0.12) (0.05) (0.06) (0.03) (0.15) (0.06)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AIC 313358.18 312979.80 178547.61 247775.44 407242.54 331208.05 637009.21
BIC 313451.59 313073.18 178637.16 247867.40 407338.63 331301.98 637109.15
Log Likelihood -156670.09 -156480.90 -89264.80 -123878.72 -203612.27 -165595.03 -318495.60
Deviance 313340.18 312961.80 178529.61 247757.44 407224.54 331190.05 636991.21
Num. obs. 237853 236915 154825 202313 320291 251955 491107
===========================================================================================================================================
*** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05
===============================================================================================================================================
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6 Model 7
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) -0.52 *** -0.49 *** -1.33 *** -1.51 *** -1.32 *** -0.16 *** -0.31 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)
newpost -0.17 *** -0.04 *** 0.52 *** 0.63 *** 0.61 *** -0.16 *** -0.43 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)
mergedTRUE 0.08 * 0.53 *** 1.27 *** 1.49 *** 1.02 *** -0.50 *** 0.30 ***
(0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.04) (0.02)
above_balTRUE 0.71 *** 0.55 *** 0.41 *** 0.56 *** 0.46 *** -0.19 *** 0.41 ***
(0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01)
aboveTRUE 0.18 *** -0.09 *** -0.34 *** 0.57 *** 0.30 *** -0.26 *** -0.12 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)
newpost:mergedTRUE -1.18 *** -0.06 ** -0.54 *** -0.51 *** -0.68 *** -0.67 *** -0.09 **
(0.05) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.02) (0.06) (0.03)
newpost:above_balTRUE -0.16 *** -0.12 *** -0.32 *** -0.60 *** -0.56 *** 0.11 *** -0.29 ***
(0.03) (0.03) (0.04) (0.03) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02)
mergedTRUE:above_balTRUE -0.03 -0.32 *** 0.74 *** -0.06 1.04 *** 1.00 *** -0.01
(0.13) (0.05) (0.06) (0.05) (0.04) (0.13) (0.07)
newpost:mergedTRUE:above_balTRUE 0.58 *** -0.25 *** 0.39 *** 1.36 *** 0.33 *** -0.86 *** 0.87 ***
(0.17) (0.06) (0.08) (0.07) (0.05) (0.19) (0.10)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AIC 313700.78 315602.30 178372.35 248058.57 410059.71 336261.09 638292.85
BIC 313794.20 315695.68 178461.90 248150.53 410155.81 336355.03 638392.79
Log Likelihood -156841.39 -157792.15 -89177.18 -124020.28 -205020.86 -168121.55 -319137.43
Deviance 313682.78 315584.30 178354.35 248040.57 410041.71 336243.09 638274.85
Num. obs. 237853 236915 154825 202313 320291 251955 491107
===============================================================================================================================================
*** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05
=========================================================================================================================================================
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6 Model 7
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) -0.67 *** -0.80 *** -1.56 *** -2.01 *** -2.11 *** 0.08 *** -0.21 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01)
newpost -0.03 0.50 *** 0.70 *** 1.05 *** 1.07 *** -1.06 *** -0.68 ***
(0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01)
mergedTRUE 0.51 *** -0.48 *** 1.80 *** 2.58 *** 2.15 *** -3.03 *** 0.07 *
(0.04) (0.13) (0.03) (0.05) (0.03) (0.14) (0.03)
above_balTRUE 0.96 *** 0.99 *** 0.75 *** 1.24 *** 1.28 *** -0.47 *** 0.36 ***
(0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.02) (0.01)
aboveTRUE 0.39 *** 0.37 *** 0.06 * 1.23 *** 1.38 *** -0.82 *** -0.32 ***
(0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01)
newpost:mergedTRUE -2.19 *** -1.74 *** -1.20 *** -1.20 *** -1.04 *** 0.89 *** 0.45 ***
(0.07) (0.16) (0.04) (0.06) (0.03) (0.20) (0.05)
newpost:above_balTRUE -0.21 *** -0.63 *** -0.36 *** -0.64 *** -0.61 *** 1.06 *** -0.09 ***
(0.03) (0.03) (0.04) (0.05) (0.04) (0.03) (0.02)
mergedTRUE:above_balTRUE -0.45 ** 0.02 0.05 -1.31 *** -0.10 * 3.44 *** 0.14 *
(0.14) (0.21) (0.06) (0.09) (0.05) (0.19) (0.07)
newpost:aboveTRUE -0.20 *** -0.80 *** -0.32 *** -0.56 *** -0.63 *** 1.48 *** 0.47 ***
(0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.02) (0.01)
mergedTRUE:aboveTRUE -0.91 *** 0.88 *** -0.87 *** -1.39 *** -1.55 *** 3.39 *** 0.40 ***
(0.07) (0.13) (0.04) (0.05) (0.03) (0.15) (0.04)
above_balTRUE:aboveTRUE -0.50 *** -1.12 *** -0.99 *** -1.03 *** -1.13 *** 0.68 *** -0.38 ***
(0.04) (0.06) (0.07) (0.04) (0.04) (0.03) (0.04)
newpost:mergedTRUE:above_balTRUE 1.33 *** 0.70 ** 0.94 *** 1.89 *** 0.27 *** -2.53 *** 0.36 ***
(0.18) (0.25) (0.09) (0.11) (0.06) (0.29) (0.10)
newpost:mergedTRUE:aboveTRUE 2.01 *** 2.02 *** 1.09 *** 0.83 *** 0.42 *** -2.20 *** -0.96 ***
(0.10) (0.17) (0.05) (0.06) (0.04) (0.21) (0.06)
newpost:above_balTRUE:aboveTRUE -0.30 *** 0.45 *** 0.23 ** -0.05 -0.07 -1.61 *** 0.02
(0.06) (0.07) (0.09) (0.06) (0.05) (0.05) (0.06)
mergedTRUE:above_balTRUE:aboveTRUE -0.18 0.35 2.38 *** 1.71 *** 1.33 *** -2.54 *** 0.88
(0.51) (0.22) (0.24) (0.11) (0.12) (0.40) (0.45)
newpost:mergedTRUE:above_balTRUE:aboveTRUE 0.84 -0.52 -1.47 *** -1.28 *** 0.29 2.14 *** 1.21
(0.67) (0.27) (0.37) (0.15) (0.16) (0.53) (0.78)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AIC 312548.81 312030.60 177424.55 245661.06 403626.17 329705.14 636748.31
BIC 312714.88 312196.61 177583.75 245824.54 403797.00 329872.14 636925.98
Log Likelihood -156258.40 -155999.30 -88696.27 -122814.53 -201797.08 -164836.57 -318358.16
Deviance 312516.81 311998.60 177392.55 245629.06 403594.17 329673.14 636716.31
Num. obs. 237853 236915 154825 202313 320291 251955 491107
=========================================================================================================================================================
*** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05
Event study (unbalanced)
Same as before except that instead of Post, Merged is interacted with quarter dummies.
\[
\begin{equation}
\begin{split}
|rate_{ijt}-meanrate_{jt}|& =\alpha + \beta Merged_{ijt} + \\
& \sum_{l=1}^9 \gamma_l \mathbb{1}[quarter_{t-(5-l)}] + \\
& \sum_{l=1}^9 \theta_l \mathbb{1}[quarter_{t-(5-l)}] \times Merged_{ijt} + u_{ijt}
\end{split}
\end{equation}
\]
Plotting the \(\theta\)s
Pooled event study
Takeaway: Loans granted by merged banks after the merger have rates closer to the mean rate of the bank.
New loans
Probability of getting a new loan
By firm, effect of merged
Effect of having a relation with merging bank on the probability of getting a new loan over time.
Keep firms in t-4 and assign Merged, Debt and Relations
- Merged if firm has a loan (new or old) with a merging bank
- Debt is the total debt of the firm
- Relations is the number of bank the firm has business with
Take firms in t-4:t+4 and assign New
- New if firm gets loan with any bank
Left-join 1 and 2 by firm
\[
\begin{equation}
\begin{split}
\Pr(new_{it}= 1) = & \Phi \Bigg( \alpha + \beta Merged_i + \\ & \sum_{l=1}^9 \gamma_l \mathbb{1}[quarter_{t-(5-l)}] + \\ & \sum_{l=1}^9 \theta_l \mathbb{1}[quarter_{t-(5-l)}] \times Merged_{i} + \epsilon_{it} \Bigg)
\end{split}
\end{equation}
\]
We control by firm’s total debt and number of banks. Plotting the \(\theta\)s
Takeaway: the probability of getting a new loan (from any bank) is lower for firms that were banking with the merged bank one year before the merger.
By firm, effect of merged and above
Effect of having a loan with the merged bank and paying high average interest rate on the probability of getting a new loan over time.
Keep firms in t-4 and assign Merged and Above, Debt and Relations
- Merged if firm has a loan (new or old) with a merging bank
- Above if weighted average rate of firm is above average rate of all loans
Take firms in t-4:t+4 and assign New
- New if firm gets loan with any bank
Left-join 1 and 2 by firm
\[
\begin{equation}
\begin{split}
\Pr(new_{it}= 1) = & \Phi \Big( \alpha + \beta_1 Merged_{i} + \beta_2 Above_{i} + \sum_{l=1}^9 \gamma_l \mathbb{1}[quarter_{t-(5-l)}] + \\ & \sum_{l=1}^9 \theta_l \mathbb{1}[quarter_{t-(5-l)}] \times Merged_i + \sum_{l=1}^9 \delta_l \mathbb{1}[quarter_{t-(5-l)}] \times Above_i + \\ & \sum_{l=1}^9 \eta_l \mathbb{1}[quarter_{t-(5-l)}] \times Merged_i \times Above_{i} + \nu_{it} \Big)
\end{split}
\end{equation}
\]
Plotting the \(\eta\)s
Takeaway: the probability of getting a new loan (from any bank) is lower for firms that were banking with the merged bank and that were paying high interest rates one year before the merger.
By firm-bank, effect of merged
Effect on the probability of getting new loans when the banking relationship was with a merging bank.
Keep firm-bank in t-4 and assign Merged
- Merged if bank in firm-bank relationship is merging bank
Take firm-bank in t-4:t+4 and assign New
- New if relation between firm i and bank j gets new loan with
Left-join 1 and 2.
\[
\begin{equation}
\begin{split}
\Pr(new_{ijt}) = & \Phi \Big( \alpha + \beta_1 Merged_{ij} + \sum_{l=1}^9 \gamma_l \mathbb{1}[quarter_{t-(5-l)}] + \\
& \sum_{l=1}^9 \theta_l\mathbb{1}[quarter_{t-(5-l)}] \times Merged_{ij} + u_{ijt} \Big)
\end{split}
\end{equation}
\]
Plotting the \(\theta\)s.
Takeaway: Relations with merging banks are less likely to get new loans after the merger.
By firm-bank, effect of merged and above
Effect on the probability of getting new loans when the banking relationship was with a merging bank.
Keep firm-bank in t-4 and assign Merged and Above
- Merged if bank in firm-bank relationship is merging bank
- Above if the firms is paying a rate above the mean of the bank granting the loan. Mean of the bank calculated using only new loans.
Take firm-bank in t-4:t+4 and assign New
- New if relation between firm i and bank j gets new loan with
Left-join 1 and 2.
\[
\begin{equation}
\begin{split}
\Pr(new_{ijt}) = & \Phi \Big( \alpha + \beta_1 Merged_{ij} + \sum_{l=1}^9 \gamma_l \mathbb{1}[quarter_{t-(5-l)}] + \\ & \sum_{l=1}^9 \theta_l\mathbb{1}[quarter_{t-(5-l)}] \times Merged_{ij} + \\
& \sum_{l=1}^9 \delta_l \mathbb{1}[quarter_{t-(5-l)}] \times Above_{i} + \\
& \sum_{l=1}^9 \eta_l \mathbb{1}[quarter_{t-(5-l)}] \times Above_{i} \times Merged_{ij} + u_{ijt}\Big)
\end{split}
\end{equation} \]
Plotting the \(\eta\)s.
Effect of merged by quarter
In this version we are defining close to the merger as loans that end within 120 days of the date of the merger.
- Take firms that have unique relations with each bank in t-4, assign Merged
- Merged if relation with merging bank
- Take firm relations that get new loans in t-4:t+4
- left-join 1 and 2
So its going to be the same specification as before but with a different sample (only relations about to end). Hence the interpretation as continue.
\[
\begin{equation}
\begin{split}
\Pr(new_{ijt}) = & \Phi \Big( \alpha + \beta_1 Merged_{ij} + \sum_{l=1}^9 \gamma_l \mathbb{1}[quarter_{t-(5-l)}] + \\ & \sum_{l=1}^9 \theta_l\mathbb{1}[quarter_{t-(5-l)}] \times Merged_{ij} + u_{ijt}\Big)
\end{split}
\end{equation}
\]
plotting the \(\theta\)s
Effect of merged by post
Same as before but instead of looking at the probablity of getting a new loan every quarter it just defines post for quarters after the merger.
Effect of merged and above by post
Effect of merged and above
Close to the merger: loan ends in t-1, t, or t+1
- Take firms that have unique relations with each bank in t-4, assign Merged and Above.
- Merged if relation with merging bank
- Above if rate above mean rate of bank (new loans)
\[
\begin{equation}
\begin{split}
\Pr(new_{ijt}) = & \Phi \Big( \alpha + \beta_1 Merged_{ij} + \sum_{l=1}^9 \gamma_l \mathbb{1}[quarter_{t-(5-l)}] + \\ & \sum_{l=1}^9 \theta_l\mathbb{1}[quarter_{t-(5-l)}] \times Merged_{ij} + \\
& \sum_{l=1}^9 \delta_l \mathbb{1}[quarter_{t-(5-l)}] \times Above_{i} + \\
& \sum_{l=1}^9 \eta_l \mathbb{1}[quarter_{t-(5-l)}] \times Above_{i} \times Merged_{ij} + u_{ijt}\Big)
\end{split}
\end{equation}
\]
plotting the \(\eta\)s
Takeaway: Firms banking with merging banks are less likely to continue BUT if they were paying high rates they are more likely.
So the natural question is, how do the rates of borrowers that continue banking with merging banks look post merger with respect to the rest of continuers?
Relations with firms paying above the mean are less likely to contiune
- Take relations in t-4 that end close to t
Rates
I need to keep all the continuers of the merged bank.
ideally keep new loans pre and get their rates
define above for new loans in pre.
I need some measure of the effect on rates:
Just look at rates of new loans
\[
rate_{it} = \alpha + \beta Merged_{it} + \gamma balance_{it} + \theta term_{it} + u_{it}
\]
Change in rate: rate loan that end - rate of new loan