New Loan Characteristics Analysis
1 Latest results
The amnesty led to persistent poaching and crowding out of own clients, especially among high-risk and weak-collateral segments. The initial expansion to first-time borrowers was short-lived. Portfolio growth occurred not through deeper inclusion of brand-new borrowers, but via inter-bank competition for marginal clients.
2 Line plots
We do have some regressions here that would make more sense to have next to the proportion plots.
2.1 Number of new loans by borrower history
Next are 3 regressions with share of loans in each category as dependent variable.
<chr> | First-time Borro.. <chr> | New-at-Bank Borr.. <chr> | Returning Borrow.. <chr> | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dependent Var.: | share_first_time | share_new_at_bank | share_returning |
| 2 | ||||
| 3 | Constant | 0.3856*** (0.0218) | 0.2407*** (0.0231) | 0.3737*** (0.0242) |
| 4 | period = during | -0.0304 (0.0190) | 0.0626** (0.0218) | -0.0323 (0.0204) |
| 5 | period = after | -0.0719** (0.0216) | 0.0828* (0.0319) | -0.0109 (0.0257) |
| 6 | _______________ | __________________ | __________________ | __________________ |
| 7 | S.E.: Clustered | by: bank | by: bank | by: bank |
| 8 | Observations | 1,143 | 1,143 | 1,143 |
| 9 | R2 | 0.01981 | 0.03726 | 0.00240 |
| 10 | Adj. R2 | 0.01809 | 0.03557 | 0.00065 |
2.2 Number of new loans by previous negative report (alternative axis)
Next the proportion of loans to borrowers with negative reports are regressed on period dummies.
<chr> | mod_neg_share <chr> | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dependent Var.: | share_negative | ||
| 2 | ||||
| 3 | Constant | 0.0380*** (0.0039) | ||
| 4 | period = during | 0.0055 (0.0035) | ||
| 5 | period = after | 0.0219*** (0.0059) | ||
| 6 | _______________ | __________________ | ||
| 7 | S.E.: Clustered | by: bank | ||
| 8 | Observations | 690 | ||
| 9 | R2 | 0.03582 | ||
| 10 | Adj. R2 | 0.03301 |
2.3 New loans to borrowers without negative report by banking history
Now a couple of regressions with share of certain type of borrower as dependent variable and period dummies as covariates
<chr> | New-at-Bank (Cle.. <chr> | Returning (Clean .. <chr> | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dependent Var.: | share_new_at_bank | share_returning | |
| 2 | ||||
| 3 | Constant | 0.3753*** (0.0376) | 0.6247*** (0.0376) | |
| 4 | period = during | 0.1095*** (0.0272) | -0.1095*** (0.0272) | |
| 5 | period = after | 0.1016** (0.0376) | -0.1016** (0.0376) | |
| 6 | _______________ | __________________ | ___________________ | |
| 7 | S.E.: Clustered | by: bank | by: bank | |
| 8 | Observations | 683 | 683 | |
| 9 | R2 | 0.03723 | 0.03723 | |
| 10 | Adj. R2 | 0.03440 | 0.03440 |
2.4 New loans to borrowers with negative report by banking history
<chr> | New-at-Bank (Wit.. <chr> | Returning (With N.. <chr> | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dependent Var.: | share_new_at_bank | share_returning | |
| 2 | ||||
| 3 | Constant | 0.3568*** (0.0389) | 0.6432*** (0.0389) | |
| 4 | period = during | 0.1534*** (0.0313) | -0.1534*** (0.0313) | |
| 5 | period = after | 0.1050* (0.0398) | -0.1050* (0.0398) | |
| 6 | _______________ | __________________ | ___________________ | |
| 7 | S.E.: Clustered | by: bank | by: bank | |
| 8 | Observations | 629 | 629 | |
| 9 | R2 | 0.05015 | 0.05015 | |
| 10 | Adj. R2 | 0.04711 | 0.04711 |
2.5 New loans to borrowers with scores other than by A banking history
Now regressions with proportion of borrowers as dependent variable
<chr> | First-time (Non-.. <chr> | New-at-Bank (Non.. <chr> | Returning (Non-A .. <chr> | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dependent Var.: | share_first_time | share_new_at_bank | share_returning |
| 2 | ||||
| 3 | Constant | 0.4007*** (0.0292) | 0.1493*** (0.0153) | 0.4500*** (0.0357) |
| 4 | period = during | 0.0588* (0.0238) | 0.0386* (0.0164) | -0.0974*** (0.0220) |
| 5 | period = after | -0.0180 (0.0260) | 0.0736*** (0.0206) | -0.0556 (0.0344) |
| 6 | _______________ | __________________ | __________________ | ___________________ |
| 7 | S.E.: Clustered | by: bank | by: bank | by: bank |
| 8 | Observations | 614 | 614 | 614 |
| 9 | R2 | 0.01734 | 0.04206 | 0.02100 |
| 10 | Adj. R2 | 0.01412 | 0.03892 | 0.01780 |
2.6 New loans to borrowers with A scores by banking history
<chr> | First-time (Scor.. <chr> | New-at-Bank (Sco.. <chr> | Returning (Score A) <chr> | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dependent Var.: | share_first_time | share_new_at_bank | share_returning |
| 2 | ||||
| 3 | Constant | 0.2812*** (0.0252) | 0.2563*** (0.0249) | 0.4625*** (0.0316) |
| 4 | period = during | 0.0490** (0.0158) | 0.0593** (0.0185) | -0.1083*** (0.0202) |
| 5 | period = after | 0.0017 (0.0220) | 0.0724* (0.0302) | -0.0741* (0.0298) |
| 6 | _______________ | __________________ | __________________ | ___________________ |
| 7 | S.E.: Clustered | by: bank | by: bank | by: bank |
| 8 | Observations | 687 | 687 | 687 |
| 9 | R2 | 0.00964 | 0.02755 | 0.03637 |
| 10 | Adj. R2 | 0.00674 | 0.02470 | 0.03355 |
2.7 New loans to borrowers with high expected loss (%) by banking history
<chr> | First-time (High.. <chr> | New-at-Bank (Hig.. <chr> | Returning (High L.. <chr> | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dependent Var.: | share_first_time | share_new_at_bank | share_returning |
| 2 | ||||
| 3 | Constant | 0.3171*** (0.0257) | 0.2359*** (0.0235) | 0.4469*** (0.0307) |
| 4 | period = during | 0.0381* (0.0146) | 0.0674*** (0.0177) | -0.1055*** (0.0212) |
| 5 | period = after | -0.0027 (0.0199) | 0.0871** (0.0298) | -0.0844** (0.0295) |
| 6 | _______________ | __________________ | __________________ | ___________________ |
| 7 | S.E.: Clustered | by: bank | by: bank | by: bank |
| 8 | Observations | 683 | 683 | 683 |
| 9 | R2 | 0.00716 | 0.04321 | 0.04407 |
| 10 | Adj. R2 | 0.00424 | 0.04039 | 0.04126 |
2.8 New loans to borrowers with low expected loss (%) by banking history
<chr> | First-time (Hig.. <chr> | New-at-Bank (Hi.. <chr> | Returning (High.. <chr> | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dependent Var.: | share_first_time | share_new_at_bank | share_returning |
| 2 | ||||
| 3 | Constant | 0.3968** (0.0830) | 0.1315 (0.0744) | 0.4716** (0.0973) |
| 4 | period = during | -0.1177 (0.1164) | -0.0065 (0.1066) | 0.1242 (0.1484) |
| 5 | period = after | 0.0395 (0.1227) | -0.0044 (0.0783) | -0.0351 (0.1524) |
| 6 | _______________ | _________________ | _________________ | _________________ |
| 7 | S.E.: Clustered | by: bank | by: bank | by: bank |
| 8 | Observations | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| 9 | R2 | 0.02156 | 0.00019 | 0.02114 |
| 10 | Adj. R2 | -0.02008 | -0.04236 | -0.02051 |
2.9 New loans to borrowers with high probability of default by banking history
<chr> | First-time (High.. <chr> | New-at-Bank (Hig.. <chr> | Returning (High .. <chr> | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dependent Var.: | share_first_time | share_new_at_bank | share_returning |
| 2 | ||||
| 3 | Constant | 0.3555*** (0.0249) | 0.1560*** (0.0171) | 0.4885*** (0.0314) |
| 4 | period = during | 0.0345 (0.0248) | 0.0434* (0.0173) | -0.0779** (0.0228) |
| 5 | period = after | -0.0033 (0.0230) | 0.0675** (0.0205) | -0.0643* (0.0317) |
| 6 | _______________ | __________________ | __________________ | __________________ |
| 7 | S.E.: Clustered | by: bank | by: bank | by: bank |
| 8 | Observations | 626 | 626 | 626 |
| 9 | R2 | 0.00519 | 0.03467 | 0.01806 |
| 10 | Adj. R2 | 0.00200 | 0.03157 | 0.01491 |
2.10 New loans to borrowers with low probability of default by banking history
<chr> | First-time (High.. <chr> | New-at-Bank (Hig.. <chr> | Returning (High L.. <chr> | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dependent Var.: | share_first_time | share_new_at_bank | share_returning |
| 2 | ||||
| 3 | Constant | 0.2808*** (0.0254) | 0.2547*** (0.0249) | 0.4645*** (0.0323) |
| 4 | period = during | 0.0517** (0.0160) | 0.0612** (0.0182) | -0.1128*** (0.0202) |
| 5 | period = after | 0.0032 (0.0220) | 0.0744* (0.0302) | -0.0777* (0.0297) |
| 6 | _______________ | __________________ | __________________ | ___________________ |
| 7 | S.E.: Clustered | by: bank | by: bank | by: bank |
| 8 | Observations | 685 | 685 | 685 |
| 9 | R2 | 0.01030 | 0.02972 | 0.03866 |
| 10 | Adj. R2 | 0.00739 | 0.02687 | 0.03584 |
2.11 New loans with less-than ideal collateral by borrower’s banking history
<chr> | First-time (Low .. <chr> | New-at-Bank (Low.. <chr> | Returning (Low Co.. <chr> | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dependent Var.: | share_first_time | share_new_at_bank | share_returning |
| 2 | ||||
| 3 | Constant | 0.2841*** (0.0212) | 0.2741*** (0.0248) | 0.4418*** (0.0305) |
| 4 | period = during | 0.0419* (0.0159) | 0.0600** (0.0179) | -0.1019*** (0.0221) |
| 5 | period = after | -0.0253 (0.0173) | 0.0795* (0.0321) | -0.0542 (0.0324) |
| 6 | _______________ | __________________ | __________________ | ___________________ |
| 7 | S.E.: Clustered | by: bank | by: bank | by: bank |
| 8 | Observations | 673 | 673 | 673 |
| 9 | R2 | 0.02305 | 0.03141 | 0.03208 |
| 10 | Adj. R2 | 0.02013 | 0.02851 | 0.02919 |
2.12 New loans with ideal collateral by borrower’s banking history
<chr> | First-time (Low .. <chr> | New-at-Bank (Low.. <chr> | Returning (Low C.. <chr> | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dependent Var.: | share_first_time | share_new_at_bank | share_returning |
| 2 | ||||
| 3 | Constant | 0.4652*** (0.0412) | 0.1020*** (0.0179) | 0.4328*** (0.0509) |
| 4 | period = during | -0.0221 (0.0300) | 0.0084 (0.0184) | 0.0138 (0.0375) |
| 5 | period = after | -0.0049 (0.0327) | 0.0348. (0.0200) | -0.0300 (0.0402) |
| 6 | _______________ | __________________ | __________________ | __________________ |
| 7 | S.E.: Clustered | by: bank | by: bank | by: bank |
| 8 | Observations | 464 | 464 | 464 |
| 9 | R2 | 0.00092 | 0.01239 | 0.00340 |
| 10 | Adj. R2 | -0.00342 | 0.00811 | -0.00092 |
2.13 New loans with low collateral coverage by banking history
<chr> | First-time (Very.. <chr> | New-at-Bank (Ver.. <chr> | Returning (Very L.. <chr> | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dependent Var.: | share_first_time | share_new_at_bank | share_returning |
| 2 | ||||
| 3 | Constant | 0.2695*** (0.0209) | 0.2801*** (0.0253) | 0.4504*** (0.0305) |
| 4 | period = during | 0.0506** (0.0147) | 0.0614** (0.0174) | -0.1120*** (0.0218) |
| 5 | period = after | -0.0312. (0.0168) | 0.0852* (0.0332) | -0.0541 (0.0331) |
| 6 | _______________ | __________________ | __________________ | ___________________ |
| 7 | S.E.: Clustered | by: bank | by: bank | by: bank |
| 8 | Observations | 663 | 663 | 663 |
| 9 | R2 | 0.03850 | 0.03422 | 0.03735 |
| 10 | Adj. R2 | 0.03558 | 0.03129 | 0.03444 |
2.14 New loans with adequate collateral coverage by banking history
<chr> | First-time (Adeq.. <chr> | New-at-Bank (Ade.. <chr> | Returning (Adequ.. <chr> | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dependent Var.: | share_first_time | share_new_at_bank | share_returning |
| 2 | ||||
| 3 | Constant | 0.4652*** (0.0412) | 0.1020*** (0.0179) | 0.4328*** (0.0509) |
| 4 | period = during | -0.0221 (0.0300) | 0.0084 (0.0184) | 0.0138 (0.0375) |
| 5 | period = after | -0.0049 (0.0327) | 0.0348. (0.0200) | -0.0300 (0.0402) |
| 6 | _______________ | __________________ | __________________ | __________________ |
| 7 | S.E.: Clustered | by: bank | by: bank | by: bank |
| 8 | Observations | 464 | 464 | 464 |
| 9 | R2 | 0.00092 | 0.01239 | 0.00340 |
| 10 | Adj. R2 | -0.00342 | 0.00811 | -0.00092 |
2.15 Findings
The analysis shows that the amnesty was associated with significant shifts in the composition of new loans. In particular, the share of loans to borrowers who had previously borrowed from other institutions (“poached” borrowers) increased markedly during the amnesty and remained elevated afterward. This rise in poaching shares was widespread across borrower subgroups. At the same time, the share of loans to returning borrowers from the same bank (“own” clients) declined, especially in the post-amnesty period, indicating a compositional shift away from previously known borrowers. While the share of first-time borrowers increased during the amnesty, this was a temporary change that did not persist. These patterns are especially pronounced among high-risk and under-collateralized loans, whereas the shares of borrower types within low-risk or fully collateralized segments remained relatively stable. Overall, the results suggest a reallocation in the distribution of loan types—away from own clients and toward externally acquired borrowers, particularly in riskier categories.
3 Dots plots (composition)
Here we have proportion of loans and a fitted line every period.
3.1 Proportion of loans to switchers
Proportion of loans granted to switchers over time
3.2 Proportion of loans to first- timers
Proportion of loans granted to first-timers over time
3.3 Proportion of loans to returning
3.4 Share of portfolio to switchers
3.5 Share of portfolio to firs-timers
3.6 Share of portfolio to returning
4 Rates
4.1 Average rates
4.2 Average rates by collateral
4.3 Average rate regression
<chr> | Only Period <chr> | Add Collateral & Intera.. <chr> | + Amount & Term <chr> | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dependent Var.: | TASA_PROMEDIO_DEL_CREDITO | TASA_PROMEDIO_DEL_CREDITO | TASA_PROMEDIO_DEL_CREDITO | |
| 2 | |||||
| 3 | Constant | 18.03*** (0.8092) | 18.38*** (0.7841) | 22.11*** (1.353) | |
| 4 | periodduring | 3.607*** (0.3328) | 3.652*** (0.2323) | 3.396*** (0.2507) | |
| 5 | periodafter | 8.455*** (1.827) | 7.710** (2.238) | 7.503** (2.179) | |
| 6 | collateral_dummyTRUE | -1.770 (1.828) | -2.939* (1.444) | ||
| 7 | periodduring x collateral_dummyTRUE | -0.9219 (1.461) | -0.5002 (1.426) | ||
| 8 | periodafter x collateral_dummyTRUE | 3.481 (3.237) | 3.466 (2.909) | ||
| 9 | SALDO_CAPITAL | -4.67e-8*** (7.12e-9) | |||
| 10 | PLAZO_MESES_DEL_CREDITO | -0.0438* (0.0168) |
4.4 TExreg version
=====================================================================================================
Only Period Add Collateral + Amount & Term + Bank FE
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) 18.034 *** 18.381 *** 22.107 ***
(0.016) (0.018) (0.020)
periodduring 3.607 *** 3.652 *** 3.396 *** 3.301 ***
(0.021) (0.023) (0.022) (0.289)
periodafter 8.455 *** 7.710 *** 7.503 *** 6.736 *
(0.019) (0.021) (0.020) (2.550)
collateral_dummyTRUE -1.770 *** -2.939 *** -1.535
(0.041) (0.039) (0.812)
periodduring:collateral_dummyTRUE -0.922 *** -0.500 *** -1.187
(0.054) (0.052) (0.843)
periodafter:collateral_dummyTRUE 3.481 *** 3.466 *** 1.925
(0.047) (0.044) (1.792)
SALDO_CAPITAL -0.000 *** -0.000 ***
(0.000) (0.000)
PLAZO_MESES_DEL_CREDITO -0.044 *** -0.035 *
(0.000) (0.013)
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Num. obs. 1740877 1740877 1740877 1740877
R^2 (full model) 0.118 0.125 0.206 0.408
R^2 (proj model) 0.165
Adj. R^2 (full model) 0.118 0.125 0.206 0.408
Adj. R^2 (proj model) 0.165
Num. groups: bank 43
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*** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05