“I don’t picture women in football, I’m sorry but this is my thinking” - Gennaro Gattuso

1 Introduction

We have used the prediction of previous week and compare them against the Johns Hopkins official data taken from their website (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) at around noone. The official numbers are shown bellow.

Table 1.1: This week’s official numbers for COVID-19 total cases and total death for different countries.
country date Death Total
Brazil 2020-05-03 6761 97100
Russia 2020-05-03 1280 134687
Spain 2020-05-03 25100 245567

Next figure shows the predicted values (Y-axis) against the official numbers (X-axis).

2 Calculating errors

2.1 Normalized error

It’s also interesting to normalize the error. Instead of large numbers (like US) determines the final ranking, we can try to normalize the errors. In this way, we are making all the predictions comparable.


$$ e = \frac{y - \hat{y}}{y} = 1 - \frac{\hat{y}}{y} $$

For simplicity in understanding the numbers, they were converted to percentage.

We can also quantify the total error for each category (total cases and death numbers), separately. This may show different ranking to each predictions.

2.2 Final results

Therefore, here is the final ranking:

Table 2.1: Participants ranking
Ranking Name Average error
1 Pinche 3.28
2 Saeedi 3.78
3 Dr. Brauwolf 6.29
4 KK 6.66
5 Vasco 7.38
6 Pedomi 15.13
7 A-Aron 21.32

3 Pessimism

Next we can rank the players by the sum of errors (iei). It’s an indication of pessimism, if this value is negative. Therefore, we are ranking players based on their level of negativeness!

Table 3.1: Participants ranking according to their pessimism
Ranking Name Mentality
1 Saeedi -0.87
2 Pinche 1.50
3 Dr. Brauwolf 2.30
4 Vasco 5.15
5 KK 5.86
6 Pedomi 15.13
7 A-Aron 21.32

4 Predictions over time

We have plotted the average error across time. With 53 points increase in performance, Saeedi is the best learner. Pedomi with only 21 points increase is the worst learner.

5 Countries

5.1 Player ranking by country

For each country, we have separately ranked players. Bellow how each player performed on each country (x-axis).

Table bellow shows the average absolute error for each player in each country:

Table 5.1: Players average absolute error for Death and Total combined for each country.
name Brazil Russia Spain
A-Aron 29.927 29.151 4.881
Dr. Brauwolf 5.586 11.996 1.301
KK 9.664 9.107 1.205
Pedomi 19.610 25.477 0.315
Pinche 2.849 5.882 1.102
Saeedi 0.768 10.144 0.438
Vasco 10.023 8.771 3.333

We can also see the actual prediction errors:

5.2 Ranking countries by difficulty

Table bellow shows the ranking of countries by the level of difficulties.

Table 5.2: Ranking countries by the total error. From hardest to easiest.
Ranking Country Average error Mentality
1 India 89.72 -78.02
2 Jamaica 77.99 -71.49
3 Israel 60.41 -52.50
4 US 41.41 8.87
5 Chile 32.23 -19.61
6 Kuwait 31.14 -5.65
7 Japan 26.17 2.53
8 Russia 14.36 11.12
9 Brazil 11.20 10.64
10 Poland 11.17 -1.96
11 Germany 7.49 5.14
12 UK 6.81 3.42
13 Portugal 4.13 3.10
14 Iran 2.45 2.11
15 Spain 1.80 -0.17

6 Type

6.1 Prediction error Death vs. Total cases

Prediction error between death and total cases were fairly similar. However, death seemed to be slightly more difficult.

Ranking Type Total error Mentality
2 Death 33.12 -14.22
1 Total 19.20 -7.17

7 Best and worst predictions

First, best predictions:
Table 7.1: Best predictions of the week
name country type prediction actual_count error
Pedomi Spain Total 245000 245567 0.23
Saeedi Spain Total 246250 245567 -0.28
Pinche Spain Death 25000 25100 0.40
Pedomi Spain Death 25000 25100 0.40
Saeedi Brazil Total 97500 97100 -0.41

Next, we show the worst predictions of the week:

Table 7.2: Worst predictions of the week
name country type prediction actual_count error
Pedomi Russia Total 85000 134687 36.89
A-Aron Brazil Death 4648 6761 31.25
A-Aron Russia Death 900 1280 29.69
A-Aron Russia Total 96147 134687 28.61
A-Aron Brazil Total 69328 97100 28.60

8 Table

Table 8.1: Ranking table
Name Oracle Superhuman Outstanding Good Average Bad Very bad Terrible Points
Vasco 0 6 6 5 6 0 1 0 50
Pinche 0 5 6 5 1 0 1 0 45
KK 1 6 5 4 7 3 4 0 44
Saeedi 0 10 2 4 7 3 2 2 41
Pedomi 1 5 1 3 11 4 3 2 18
Dr. Brauwolf 1 3 7 7 3 1 2 6 16
A-Aron 1 0 2 3 8 2 2 0 11
Smooth Op 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 1 -16

8.1 This week’s table

Table 8.2: Ranking table for this week’s results
Name Oracle Superhuman Outstanding Good Average Bad Very bad Terrible Points
Saeedi 0 4 0 1 1 0 0 0 21
Pinche 0 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 20
Dr. Brauwolf 0 2 1 2 1 0 0 0 15
KK 0 2 1 1 2 0 0 0 14
Vasco 0 1 1 2 2 0 0 0 10
Pedomi 0 2 0 0 3 1 0 0 9
A-Aron 0 0 2 0 3 1 0 0 5

8.2 Evolution of points over time

9 Average error each Week

10 Weighted approach

In this section, we use a new way to calculate total points for each player. Instead of simply summing up the points, we use the average error in each week as a way to normalize the points.

Given the average error in a week, we calculate a weight according to the following function:

For each positive points, we multiply the number of points to the weight according to the above function. For negative point, however, we divide the negative points to the weight. This makes sure that the good predictions are more valued in difficult weeks and bad predictions are having a smaller penalty in weeks with poor average error.

Next plot shows the evolution of points over time:

Moreover, bellow, we see the ranking table:

Table 10.1: Ranking table with weighted scores/points
name Oracle Superhuman Outstanding Good Average Bad Very bad Terrible total_weighted_point
KK 1 6 5 4 7 3 4 0 79.458
Vasco 0 6 6 5 6 0 1 0 75.865
Saeedi 0 10 2 4 7 3 2 2 74.761
Pinche 0 5 6 5 1 0 1 0 65.510
Dr. Brauwolf 1 3 7 7 3 1 2 6 57.606
Pedomi 1 5 1 3 11 4 3 2 49.913
A-Aron 1 0 2 3 8 2 2 0 28.776
Smooth Op 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 1 -6.510

11 Players similarity

12 Next week

We will select up to five countries from the list bellow. This list is genearted by the machine, selecting 15 random countries.

Next week’s challenge:

  • Peru
  • Mexico
  • Belgium
set.seed(20200503)
print(sort(sample(5:20, 3, replace = FALSE)))
## [1] 13 15 17

13 Apendix A: Scoring system

Scoring system

14 Apendix B: All predictions

Table 14.1: All predictions
name country type prediction true count date error badge point
Saeedi US Total 280000 277607 2020-04-04 -0.862 Superhuman 5
Saeedi US Death 5500 7406 2020-04-04 25.736 Average 0
Saeedi India Total 2500 3082 2020-04-04 18.884 Average 0
Saeedi India Death 150 86 2020-04-04 -74.419 Very bad -3
Saeedi Jamaica Total 110 53 2020-04-04 -107.547 Terrible -5
Saeedi Jamaica Death 9 3 2020-04-04 -200.000 Terrible -5
KK US Total 450000 277607 2020-04-04 -62.100 Very bad -3
KK US Death 5000 7406 2020-04-04 32.487 Bad -1
KK India Total 5000 3082 2020-04-04 -62.232 Very bad -3
KK India Death 150 86 2020-04-04 -74.419 Very bad -3
KK Jamaica Total 60 53 2020-04-04 -13.208 Average 0
KK Jamaica Death 2 3 2020-04-04 33.333 Bad -1
Pedomi US Total 400000 277607 2020-04-04 -44.089 Bad -1
Pedomi US Death 4000 7406 2020-04-04 45.990 Bad -1
Pedomi India Total 6000 3082 2020-04-04 -94.679 Very bad -3
Pedomi India Death 200 86 2020-04-04 -132.558 Terrible -5
Pedomi Jamaica Total 80 53 2020-04-04 -50.943 Very bad -3
Pedomi Jamaica Death 5 3 2020-04-04 -66.667 Very bad -3
Smooth Op US Total 300000 277607 2020-04-04 -8.066 Good 1
Smooth Op US Death 3000 7406 2020-04-04 59.492 Very bad -3
Smooth Op India Total 8000 3082 2020-04-04 -159.572 Terrible -5
Smooth Op India Death 150 86 2020-04-04 -74.419 Very bad -3
Smooth Op Jamaica Total 90 53 2020-04-04 -69.811 Very bad -3
Smooth Op Jamaica Death 5 3 2020-04-04 -66.667 Very bad -3
Dr. Brauwolf US Total 500000 277607 2020-04-04 -80.111 Very bad -3
Dr. Brauwolf US Death 6000 7406 2020-04-04 18.985 Average 0
Dr. Brauwolf India Total 7000 3082 2020-04-04 -127.125 Terrible -5
Dr. Brauwolf India Death 250 86 2020-04-04 -190.698 Terrible -5
Dr. Brauwolf Jamaica Total 100 53 2020-04-04 -88.679 Very bad -3
Dr. Brauwolf Jamaica Death 10 3 2020-04-04 -233.333 Terrible -5
A-Aron US Total 150000 277607 2020-04-04 45.967 Bad -1
A-Aron US Death 2000 7406 2020-04-04 72.995 Very bad -3
A-Aron India Total 1500 3082 2020-04-04 51.330 Very bad -3
A-Aron India Death 100 86 2020-04-04 -16.279 Average 0
A-Aron Jamaica Total 50 53 2020-04-04 5.660 Good 1
A-Aron Jamaica Death 3 3 2020-04-04 0.000 Oracle 10
Saeedi Japan Total 3800 6005 2020-04-11 36.719 Bad -1
Saeedi Japan Death 115 99 2020-04-11 -16.162 Average 0
Saeedi Chile Total 7450 6501 2020-04-11 -14.598 Average 0
Saeedi Chile Death 84 65 2020-04-11 -29.231 Average 0
Saeedi Israel Total 11250 10525 2020-04-11 -6.888 Good 1
Saeedi Israel Death 87 96 2020-04-11 9.375 Good 1
Pedomi Japan Total 4000 6005 2020-04-11 33.389 Bad -1
Pedomi Japan Death 85 99 2020-04-11 14.141 Average 0
Pedomi Chile Total 5000 6501 2020-04-11 23.089 Average 0
Pedomi Chile Death 50 65 2020-04-11 23.077 Average 0
Pedomi Israel Total 11000 10525 2020-04-11 -4.513 Outstanding 3
Pedomi Israel Death 300 96 2020-04-11 -212.500 Terrible -5
KK Japan Total 3900 6005 2020-04-11 35.054 Bad -1
KK Japan Death 99 99 2020-04-11 0.000 Oracle 10
KK Chile Total 7200 6501 2020-04-11 -10.752 Average 0
KK Chile Death 108 65 2020-04-11 -66.154 Very bad -3
KK Israel Total 11100 10525 2020-04-11 -5.463 Good 1
KK Israel Death 88 96 2020-04-11 8.333 Good 1
Dr. Brauwolf Japan Total 6000 6005 2020-04-11 0.083 Superhuman 5
Dr. Brauwolf Japan Death 200 99 2020-04-11 -102.020 Terrible -5
Dr. Brauwolf Chile Total 7000 6501 2020-04-11 -7.676 Good 1
Dr. Brauwolf Chile Death 150 65 2020-04-11 -130.769 Terrible -5
Dr. Brauwolf Israel Total 12000 10525 2020-04-11 -14.014 Average 0
Dr. Brauwolf Israel Death 400 96 2020-04-11 -316.667 Terrible -5
Vasco Japan Total 4800 6005 2020-04-11 20.067 Average 0
Vasco Japan Death 95 99 2020-04-11 4.040 Outstanding 3
Vasco Chile Total 6400 6501 2020-04-11 1.554 Superhuman 5
Vasco Chile Death 55 65 2020-04-11 15.385 Average 0
Vasco Israel Total 11000 10525 2020-04-11 -4.513 Outstanding 3
Vasco Israel Death 75 96 2020-04-11 21.875 Average 0
Saeedi Germany Total 134879 141397 2020-04-18 4.610 Outstanding 3
Saeedi Germany Death 3781 4352 2020-04-18 13.120 Average 0
Saeedi Kuwait Total 3146 1751 2020-04-18 -79.669 Very bad -3
Saeedi Kuwait Death 4 6 2020-04-18 33.333 Bad -1
Saeedi Poland Total 9416 8563 2020-04-18 -9.961 Good 1
Saeedi Poland Death 495 339 2020-04-18 -46.018 Bad -1
Pedomi Germany Total 142000 141397 2020-04-18 -0.426 Superhuman 5
Pedomi Germany Death 3400 4352 2020-04-18 21.875 Average 0
Pedomi Kuwait Total 2000 1751 2020-04-18 -14.220 Average 0
Pedomi Kuwait Death 6 6 2020-04-18 0.000 Oracle 10
Pedomi Poland Total 9000 8563 2020-04-18 -5.103 Good 1
Pedomi Poland Death 290 339 2020-04-18 14.454 Average 0
Dr. Brauwolf Germany Total 145000 141397 2020-04-18 -2.548 Outstanding 3
Dr. Brauwolf Germany Death 4000 4352 2020-04-18 8.088 Good 1
Dr. Brauwolf Kuwait Total 1800 1751 2020-04-18 -2.798 Outstanding 3
Dr. Brauwolf Kuwait Death 4 6 2020-04-18 33.333 Bad -1
Dr. Brauwolf Poland Total 9000 8563 2020-04-18 -5.103 Good 1
Dr. Brauwolf Poland Death 315 339 2020-04-18 7.080 Good 1
Vasco Germany Total 152000 141397 2020-04-18 -7.499 Good 1
Vasco Germany Death 4175 4352 2020-04-18 4.067 Outstanding 3
Vasco Kuwait Total 2000 1751 2020-04-18 -14.220 Average 0
Vasco Kuwait Death 12 6 2020-04-18 -100.000 Very bad -3
Vasco Poland Total 9200 8563 2020-04-18 -7.439 Good 1
Vasco Poland Death 310 339 2020-04-18 8.555 Good 1
KK Germany Total 146500 141397 2020-04-18 -3.609 Outstanding 3
KK Germany Death 3700 4352 2020-04-18 14.982 Average 0
KK Kuwait Total 1923 1751 2020-04-18 -9.823 Good 1
KK Kuwait Death 5 6 2020-04-18 16.667 Average 0
KK Poland Total 8302 8563 2020-04-18 3.048 Outstanding 3
KK Poland Death 298 339 2020-04-18 12.094 Average 0
Pinche Germany Total 140000 141397 2020-04-18 0.988 Superhuman 5
Pinche Germany Death 4000 4352 2020-04-18 8.088 Good 1
Pinche Kuwait Total 1700 1751 2020-04-18 2.913 Outstanding 3
Pinche Kuwait Death 2 6 2020-04-18 66.667 Very bad -3
Pinche Poland Total 9000 8563 2020-04-18 -5.103 Good 1
Pinche Poland Death 305 339 2020-04-18 10.029 Average 0
Saeedi UK Total 145867 148377 2020-04-25 1.692 Superhuman 5
Saeedi UK Death 21160 20319 2020-04-25 -4.139 Outstanding 3
Saeedi Portugal Total 23550 23392 2020-04-25 -0.675 Superhuman 5
Saeedi Portugal Death 895 880 2020-04-25 -1.705 Superhuman 5
Saeedi Iran Total 90670 89328 2020-04-25 -1.502 Superhuman 5
Saeedi Iran Death 5570 5650 2020-04-25 1.416 Superhuman 5
Dr. Brauwolf UK Total 145000 148377 2020-04-25 2.276 Outstanding 3
Dr. Brauwolf UK Death 22000 20319 2020-04-25 -8.273 Good 1
Dr. Brauwolf Portugal Total 24000 23392 2020-04-25 -2.599 Outstanding 3
Dr. Brauwolf Portugal Death 880 880 2020-04-25 0.000 Oracle 10
Dr. Brauwolf Iran Total 87000 89328 2020-04-25 2.606 Outstanding 3
Dr. Brauwolf Iran Death 5500 5650 2020-04-25 2.655 Outstanding 3
Vasco UK Total 146000 148377 2020-04-25 1.602 Superhuman 5
Vasco UK Death 20500 20319 2020-04-25 -0.891 Superhuman 5
Vasco Portugal Total 22300 23392 2020-04-25 4.668 Outstanding 3
Vasco Portugal Death 870 880 2020-04-25 1.136 Superhuman 5
Vasco Iran Total 88500 89328 2020-04-25 0.927 Superhuman 5
Vasco Iran Death 5470 5650 2020-04-25 3.186 Outstanding 3
KK UK Total 141141 148377 2020-04-25 4.877 Outstanding 3
KK UK Death 20020 20319 2020-04-25 1.472 Superhuman 5
KK Portugal Total 22345 23392 2020-04-25 4.476 Outstanding 3
KK Portugal Death 876 880 2020-04-25 0.455 Superhuman 5
KK Iran Total 88888 89328 2020-04-25 0.493 Superhuman 5
KK Iran Death 5555 5650 2020-04-25 1.681 Superhuman 5
Pedomi UK Total 130000 148377 2020-04-25 12.385 Average 0
Pedomi UK Death 16900 20319 2020-04-25 16.827 Average 0
Pedomi Portugal Total 21500 23392 2020-04-25 8.088 Good 1
Pedomi Portugal Death 830 880 2020-04-25 5.682 Good 1
Pedomi Iran Total 89000 89328 2020-04-25 0.367 Superhuman 5
Pedomi Iran Death 5700 5650 2020-04-25 -0.885 Superhuman 5
A-Aron UK Total 125627 148377 2020-04-25 15.333 Average 0
A-Aron UK Death 17240 20319 2020-04-25 15.153 Average 0
A-Aron Portugal Total 21011 23392 2020-04-25 10.179 Average 0
A-Aron Portugal Death 747 880 2020-04-25 15.114 Average 0
A-Aron Iran Total 82568 89328 2020-04-25 7.568 Good 1
A-Aron Iran Death 5177 5650 2020-04-25 8.372 Good 1
Pinche UK Total 156000 148377 2020-04-25 -5.138 Good 1
Pinche UK Death 21400 20319 2020-04-25 -5.320 Good 1
Pinche Portugal Total 23200 23392 2020-04-25 0.821 Superhuman 5
Pinche Portugal Death 900 880 2020-04-25 -2.273 Outstanding 3
Pinche Iran Total 89000 89328 2020-04-25 0.367 Superhuman 5
Pinche Iran Death 5520 5650 2020-04-25 2.301 Outstanding 3
Saeedi Spain Total 246250 245567 2020-05-03 -0.278 Superhuman 5
Saeedi Spain Death 24950 25100 2020-05-03 0.598 Superhuman 5
Saeedi Brazil Total 97500 97100 2020-05-03 -0.412 Superhuman 5
Saeedi Brazil Death 6685 6761 2020-05-03 1.124 Superhuman 5
Saeedi Russia Total 125250 134687 2020-05-03 7.007 Good 1
Saeedi Russia Death 1450 1280 2020-05-03 -13.281 Average 0
KK Spain Total 250000 245567 2020-05-03 -1.805 Superhuman 5
KK Spain Death 25252 25100 2020-05-03 -0.606 Superhuman 5
KK Brazil Total 84048 97100 2020-05-03 13.442 Average 0
KK Brazil Death 6363 6761 2020-05-03 5.887 Good 1
KK Russia Total 113311 134687 2020-05-03 15.871 Average 0
KK Russia Death 1250 1280 2020-05-03 2.344 Outstanding 3
Pinche Spain Total 250000 245567 2020-05-03 -1.805 Superhuman 5
Pinche Spain Death 25000 25100 2020-05-03 0.398 Superhuman 5
Pinche Brazil Total 95000 97100 2020-05-03 2.163 Outstanding 3
Pinche Brazil Death 7000 6761 2020-05-03 -3.535 Outstanding 3
Pinche Russia Total 122000 134687 2020-05-03 9.420 Good 1
Pinche Russia Death 1250 1280 2020-05-03 2.344 Outstanding 3
Vasco Spain Total 259000 245567 2020-05-03 -5.470 Good 1
Vasco Spain Death 25400 25100 2020-05-03 -1.195 Superhuman 5
Vasco Brazil Total 90000 97100 2020-05-03 7.312 Good 1
Vasco Brazil Death 5900 6761 2020-05-03 12.735 Average 0
Vasco Russia Total 130000 134687 2020-05-03 3.480 Outstanding 3
Vasco Russia Death 1100 1280 2020-05-03 14.062 Average 0
Dr. Brauwolf Spain Total 250000 245567 2020-05-03 -1.805 Superhuman 5
Dr. Brauwolf Spain Death 25300 25100 2020-05-03 -0.797 Superhuman 5
Dr. Brauwolf Brazil Total 90000 97100 2020-05-03 7.312 Good 1
Dr. Brauwolf Brazil Death 6500 6761 2020-05-03 3.860 Outstanding 3
Dr. Brauwolf Russia Total 115000 134687 2020-05-03 14.617 Average 0
Dr. Brauwolf Russia Death 1400 1280 2020-05-03 -9.375 Good 1
Pedomi Spain Total 245000 245567 2020-05-03 0.231 Superhuman 5
Pedomi Spain Death 25000 25100 2020-05-03 0.398 Superhuman 5
Pedomi Brazil Total 80000 97100 2020-05-03 17.611 Average 0
Pedomi Brazil Death 5300 6761 2020-05-03 21.609 Average 0
Pedomi Russia Total 85000 134687 2020-05-03 36.891 Bad -1
Pedomi Russia Death 1100 1280 2020-05-03 14.062 Average 0
A-Aron Spain Total 233822 245567 2020-05-03 4.783 Outstanding 3
A-Aron Spain Death 23850 25100 2020-05-03 4.980 Outstanding 3
A-Aron Brazil Total 69328 97100 2020-05-03 28.601 Average 0
A-Aron Brazil Death 4648 6761 2020-05-03 31.253 Bad -1
A-Aron Russia Total 96147 134687 2020-05-03 28.614 Average 0
A-Aron Russia Death 900 1280 2020-05-03 29.688 Average 0