Discovery

Findings align with those of the analyst; daily booking rates fell significantly during the days prior to the snapshot. The results presented below reflect the daily booking rate for the 90 days prior to the snapshot. By reproducing the analysts result it is apparent why they would feel the need for concern with these numbers.

date	total_count	booked_count	percent
2018-05-27	225	103	45.78
2018-05-28	252	105	41.67
2018-05-29	224	112	50
2018-05-30	254	105	41.34
2018-05-31	259	103	39.77
2018-06-01	229	101	44.1
2018-06-02	218	96	44.04
2018-06-03	213	94	44.13
2018-06-04	231	105	45.45
2018-06-05	229	106	46.29
2018-06-06	258	123	47.67
2018-06-07	218	88	40.37
2018-06-08	257	100	38.91
2018-06-09	247	103	41.7
2018-06-10	254	130	51.18
2018-06-11	255	107	41.96
2018-06-12	237	113	47.68
2018-06-13	254	111	43.7
2018-06-14	271	125	46.13
2018-06-15	241	95	39.42
2018-06-16	264	113	42.8
2018-06-17	244	103	42.21
2018-06-18	249	107	42.97
2018-06-19	243	106	43.62
2018-06-20	258	106	41.09
2018-06-21	251	104	41.43
2018-06-22	242	114	47.11
2018-06-23	237	104	43.88
2018-06-24	242	105	43.39
2018-06-25	275	107	38.91
2018-06-26	239	94	39.33
2018-06-27	279	118	42.29
2018-06-28	270	119	44.07
2018-06-29	258	111	43.02
2018-06-30	260	117	45
2018-07-01	264	112	42.42
2018-07-02	271	116	42.8
2018-07-03	261	125	47.89
2018-07-04	256	120	46.88
2018-07-05	260	114	43.85
2018-07-06	267	114	42.7
2018-07-07	255	113	44.31
2018-07-08	295	136	46.1
2018-07-09	285	138	48.42
2018-07-10	272	113	41.54
2018-07-11	275	108	39.27
2018-07-12	242	93	38.43
2018-07-13	287	139	48.43
2018-07-14	284	118	41.55
2018-07-15	278	110	39.57
2018-07-16	282	139	49.29
2018-07-17	303	135	44.55
2018-07-18	290	117	40.34
2018-07-19	277	124	44.77
2018-07-20	284	127	44.72
2018-07-21	271	131	48.34
2018-07-22	290	138	47.59
2018-07-23	281	140	49.82
2018-07-24	269	121	44.98
2018-07-25	291	134	46.05
2018-07-26	283	112	39.58
2018-07-27	285	124	43.51
2018-07-28	310	118	38.06
2018-07-29	267	83	31.09
2018-07-30	304	57	18.75
2018-07-31	306	38	12.42
2018-08-01	284	14	4.93

Trend

Below the decrease in daily booking rates is shown, the analyst was correct with the discovery of a significant downfall towards the end of the snapshot period.

Analysis

The table below highlights the dates included in the downfall of the daily booking rate. In order to find answers as to why this fall has occurred the focus on these dates is crucial as to why the numbers are so low for this timeframe. The fall begins July 28th with 38.06% and continues through the final day of the snapshot August 2nd with a daily booking rate of only 4.93%.

date	total_count	booked_count	percent
2018-07-28	310	118	38.06
2018-07-29	267	83	31.09
2018-07-30	304	57	18.75
2018-07-31	306	38	12.42
2018-08-01	284	14	4.93

Conclusion

Upon review, the data is actually what we would expect to see given the date of the snapshot end. Historically, booked dates occur up to 3-5 days after the conversation; therefore, a conversation started on August 1st would not have all of its bookings appear in a snapshot that ends on August 2nd (due to most of the booked dates being closer to August 3rd- 5th). The following tab shows the trend of bookings after a conversation is initiated with the average time between conversation and booked date being 3.73 days. This explains why the numbers appear to be a downward trend, upon deeper review we can see there is no reason for concern and the data is as to be expected.

Supporting Data

Gross Billings

Gross billings for each month. Gross billing is defined as the total charged to the owner (this includes all owner and service fees).

month	gross_billings
2016-08-01	6874.70
2016-09-01	3303.95
2016-10-01	5396.95
2016-11-01	8692.85
2016-12-01	8754.95
2017-01-01	14369.25
2017-02-01	13678.10
2017-03-01	16725.60
2017-04-01	19650.05
2017-05-01	22184.30
2017-06-01	25953.60
2017-07-01	28120.80
2017-08-01	31419.60
2017-09-01	33403.20
2017-10-01	35808.00
2017-11-01	35301.60
2017-12-01	41694.00
2018-01-01	44108.40
2018-02-01	41865.60
2018-03-01	50127.60
2018-04-01	50133.60
2018-05-01	54199.20
2018-06-01	55066.80
2018-07-01	58752.00
2018-08-01	2488.80

Net Revenue

Net revenue for each month. Net revenue includes all fees that go directly to the company from the fees associated for the services as well as the owner fees.

month	net_revenue
2016-08-01	896.70
2016-09-01	430.95
2016-10-01	705.63
2016-11-01	1135.67
2016-12-01	1146.68
2017-01-01	1875.60
2017-02-01	1793.90
2017-03-01	2189.70
2017-04-01	2579.20
2017-05-01	3220.85
2017-06-01	4346.30
2017-07-01	4699.60
2017-08-01	5248.55
2017-09-01	5598.10
2017-10-01	5993.05
2017-11-01	5906.20
2017-12-01	6972.52
2018-01-01	7389.34
2018-02-01	7011.83
2018-03-01	8411.93
2018-04-01	8383.18
2018-05-01	9090.32
2018-06-01	9211.12
2018-07-01	9840.51
2018-08-01	414.80

Take Rate

Monthly aggregate take rates. The take rate fell significantly toward the end of July, beginning of August.

month	take_rate
2016-08-01	27.26087
2016-09-01	13.56522
2016-10-01	21.96522
2016-11-01	36.44348
2016-12-01	36.69565
2017-01-01	58.73913
2017-02-01	56.56522
2017-03-01	68.73913
2017-04-01	80.73913
2017-05-01	98.54529
2017-06-01	129.95833
2017-07-01	140.54167
2017-08-01	157.04167
2017-09-01	167.91667
2017-10-01	180.87500
2017-11-01	175.87500
2017-12-01	209.20000
2018-01-01	222.00000
2018-02-01	209.99167
2018-03-01	252.97500
2018-04-01	253.04167
2018-05-01	273.41667
2018-06-01	274.82500
2018-07-01	296.01667
2018-08-01	12.50000

Take Rate Trend

Trend for the take rate over the selected date range. Here we can see the significant fall.

Conclusion

In conclusion the take rate trend shows that a downward trend is evident, this is a direct result of the daily booking rates also falling during the same range of dates. With booking rates being low, the result of gross billings and net revenue also being low is expected; this in turn explains the trend in take rate as it is defined by those two variables.

Discovery

Count of users acquired via Google

date	count
2016-08-08	1
2016-08-09	1
2016-08-10	1
2016-08-11	1
2016-08-12	1
2016-08-14	1
2016-08-20	3
2016-08-24	1
2016-08-26	1
2016-08-27	1
2016-08-28	3
2016-08-29	3
2016-08-31	2
2016-09-01	1
2016-09-02	1
2016-09-03	2
2016-09-04	4
2016-09-05	1
2016-09-06	1
2016-09-07	4
2016-09-08	3
2016-09-09	3
2016-09-12	4
2016-09-14	4
2016-09-15	1
2016-09-16	1
2016-09-19	1
2016-09-20	2
2016-09-21	1
2016-09-22	2
2016-09-23	3
2016-09-24	3
2016-09-25	2
2016-09-26	1
2016-09-27	1
2016-09-28	2
2016-09-29	4
2016-10-02	5
2016-10-03	6
2016-10-04	3
2016-10-05	3
2016-10-06	1
2016-10-07	1
2016-10-08	1
2016-10-10	2
2016-10-11	9
2016-10-12	3
2016-10-13	1
2016-10-14	2
2016-10-15	2
2016-10-16	5
2016-10-17	2
2016-10-18	6
2016-10-19	3
2016-10-20	2
2016-10-21	3
2016-10-22	4
2016-10-23	7
2016-10-24	5
2016-10-25	5
2016-10-26	10
2016-10-27	5
2016-10-28	3
2016-10-29	3
2016-10-30	5
2016-10-31	4
2016-11-01	6
2016-11-02	5
2016-11-03	4
2016-11-04	1
2016-11-05	6
2016-11-06	10
2016-11-07	6
2016-11-08	2
2016-11-09	4
2016-11-10	2
2016-11-11	6
2016-11-12	5
2016-11-13	6
2016-11-14	8
2016-11-15	1
2016-11-16	5
2016-11-17	3
2016-11-18	6
2016-11-19	2
2016-11-20	5
2016-11-21	5
2016-11-22	6
2016-11-23	4
2016-11-24	3
2016-11-25	6
2016-11-26	5
2016-11-27	6
2016-11-28	5
2016-11-29	3
2016-11-30	11
2016-12-01	7
2016-12-02	5
2016-12-03	4
2016-12-04	5
2016-12-05	8
2016-12-06	7
2016-12-07	11
2016-12-08	4
2016-12-09	8
2016-12-10	6
2016-12-11	10
2016-12-12	8
2016-12-13	6
2016-12-14	6
2016-12-15	7
2016-12-16	1
2016-12-17	8
2016-12-18	8
2016-12-19	8
2016-12-20	7
2016-12-21	6
2016-12-22	10
2016-12-23	4
2016-12-24	3
2016-12-25	7
2016-12-26	9
2016-12-27	6
2016-12-28	7
2016-12-29	6
2016-12-30	11
2016-12-31	10
2017-01-01	7
2017-01-02	4
2017-01-03	6
2017-01-04	10
2017-01-05	9
2017-01-06	4
2017-01-07	8
2017-01-08	8
2017-01-09	7
2017-01-10	16
2017-01-11	7
2017-01-12	5
2017-01-13	8
2017-01-14	2
2017-01-15	8
2017-01-16	6
2017-01-17	11
2017-01-18	10
2017-01-19	8
2017-01-20	7
2017-01-21	8
2017-01-22	7
2017-01-23	15
2017-01-24	8
2017-01-25	10
2017-01-26	9
2017-01-27	4
2017-01-28	9
2017-01-29	5
2017-01-30	7
2017-01-31	7
2017-02-01	12
2017-02-02	11
2017-02-03	7
2017-02-04	13
2017-02-05	7
2017-02-06	9
2017-02-07	5
2017-02-08	5
2017-02-09	6
2017-02-10	8
2017-02-11	6
2017-02-12	10
2017-02-13	11
2017-02-14	9
2017-02-15	10
2017-02-16	11
2017-02-17	10
2017-02-18	8
2017-02-19	4
2017-02-20	11
2017-02-21	10
2017-02-22	7
2017-02-23	14
2017-02-24	7
2017-02-25	13
2017-02-26	7
2017-02-27	10
2017-02-28	9
2017-03-01	9
2017-03-02	5
2017-03-03	7
2017-03-04	15
2017-03-05	13
2017-03-06	9
2017-03-07	12
2017-03-08	13
2017-03-09	7
2017-03-10	6
2017-03-11	12
2017-03-12	8
2017-03-13	10
2017-03-14	17
2017-03-15	22
2017-03-16	15
2017-03-17	10
2017-03-18	10
2017-03-19	12
2017-03-20	12
2017-03-21	8
2017-03-22	13
2017-03-23	13
2017-03-24	11
2017-03-25	9
2017-03-26	15
2017-03-27	3
2017-03-28	10
2017-03-29	10
2017-03-30	11
2017-03-31	6
2017-04-01	10
2017-04-02	9
2017-04-03	16
2017-04-04	17
2017-04-05	13
2017-04-06	13
2017-04-07	6
2017-04-08	7
2017-04-09	13
2017-04-10	13
2017-04-11	11
2017-04-12	12
2017-04-13	6
2017-04-14	10
2017-04-15	6
2017-04-16	19
2017-04-17	18
2017-04-18	14
2017-04-19	9
2017-04-20	5
2017-04-21	7
2017-04-22	17
2017-04-23	11
2017-04-24	16
2017-04-25	12
2017-04-26	4
2017-04-27	7
2017-04-28	15
2017-04-29	7
2017-04-30	15
2017-05-01	16
2017-05-02	20
2017-05-03	12
2017-05-04	10
2017-05-05	10
2017-05-06	13
2017-05-07	12
2017-05-08	18
2017-05-09	12
2017-05-10	10
2017-05-11	27
2017-05-12	17
2017-05-13	12
2017-05-14	13
2017-05-15	14
2017-05-16	9
2017-05-17	15
2017-05-18	11
2017-05-19	12
2017-05-20	8
2017-05-21	11
2017-05-22	11
2017-05-23	11
2017-05-24	9
2017-05-25	12
2017-05-26	9
2017-05-27	20
2017-05-28	13
2017-05-29	12
2017-05-30	14
2017-05-31	12
2017-06-01	12
2017-06-02	19
2017-06-03	14
2017-06-04	15
2017-06-05	16
2017-06-06	16
2017-06-07	13
2017-06-08	7
2017-06-09	17
2017-06-10	14
2017-06-11	15
2017-06-12	17
2017-06-13	8
2017-06-14	14
2017-06-15	19
2017-06-16	18
2017-06-17	10
2017-06-18	17
2017-06-19	18
2017-06-20	19
2017-06-21	13
2017-06-22	14
2017-06-23	11
2017-06-24	14
2017-06-25	18
2017-06-26	15
2017-06-27	17
2017-06-28	16
2017-06-29	9
2017-06-30	20
2017-07-01	13
2017-07-02	16
2017-07-03	17
2017-07-04	13
2017-07-05	18
2017-07-06	18
2017-07-07	11
2017-07-08	13
2017-07-09	20
2017-07-10	10
2017-07-11	10
2017-07-12	18
2017-07-13	17
2017-07-14	15
2017-07-15	16
2017-07-16	12
2017-07-17	16
2017-07-18	12
2017-07-19	14
2017-07-20	17
2017-07-21	24
2017-07-22	21
2017-07-23	21
2017-07-24	17
2017-07-25	16
2017-07-26	17
2017-07-27	19
2017-07-28	16
2017-07-29	17
2017-07-30	21
2017-07-31	19
2017-08-01	11
2017-08-02	18
2017-08-03	12
2017-08-04	13
2017-08-05	18
2017-08-06	24
2017-08-07	20
2017-08-08	21
2017-08-09	12
2017-08-10	21
2017-08-11	22
2017-08-12	18
2017-08-13	16
2017-08-14	19
2017-08-15	18
2017-08-16	14
2017-08-17	20
2017-08-18	14
2017-08-19	14
2017-08-20	17
2017-08-21	14
2017-08-22	17
2017-08-23	17
2017-08-24	29
2017-08-25	23
2017-08-26	15
2017-08-27	24
2017-08-28	29
2017-08-29	19
2017-08-30	21
2017-08-31	18
2017-09-01	16
2017-09-02	13
2017-09-03	20
2017-09-04	26
2017-09-05	18
2017-09-06	23
2017-09-07	14
2017-09-08	14
2017-09-09	14
2017-09-10	22
2017-09-11	27
2017-09-12	15
2017-09-13	15
2017-09-14	17
2017-09-15	18
2017-09-16	29
2017-09-17	20
2017-09-18	15
2017-09-19	19
2017-09-20	24
2017-09-21	15
2017-09-22	23
2017-09-23	18
2017-09-24	21
2017-09-25	25
2017-09-26	23
2017-09-27	24
2017-09-28	19
2017-09-29	18
2017-09-30	22
2017-10-01	24
2017-10-02	14
2017-10-03	19
2017-10-04	31
2017-10-05	20
2017-10-06	22
2017-10-07	25
2017-10-08	20
2017-10-09	18
2017-10-10	14
2017-10-11	18
2017-10-12	17
2017-10-13	24
2017-10-14	12
2017-10-15	25
2017-10-16	20
2017-10-17	20
2017-10-18	11
2017-10-19	22
2017-10-20	18
2017-10-21	22
2017-10-22	19
2017-10-23	23
2017-10-24	20
2017-10-25	13
2017-10-26	26
2017-10-27	15
2017-10-28	18
2017-10-29	21
2017-10-30	13
2017-10-31	26
2017-11-01	15
2017-11-02	16
2017-11-03	12
2017-11-04	17
2017-11-05	16
2017-11-06	31
2017-11-07	19
2017-11-08	18
2017-11-09	22
2017-11-10	25
2017-11-11	19
2017-11-12	31
2017-11-13	29
2017-11-14	16
2017-11-15	18
2017-11-16	18
2017-11-17	20
2017-11-18	24
2017-11-19	27
2017-11-20	15
2017-11-21	19
2017-11-22	23
2017-11-23	23
2017-11-24	18
2017-11-25	17
2017-11-26	24
2017-11-27	19
2017-11-28	28
2017-11-29	23
2017-11-30	23
2017-12-01	23
2017-12-02	23
2017-12-03	20
2017-12-04	26
2017-12-05	26
2017-12-06	20
2017-12-07	24
2017-12-08	29
2017-12-09	31
2017-12-10	31
2017-12-11	28
2017-12-12	22
2017-12-13	25
2017-12-14	20
2017-12-15	26
2017-12-16	27
2017-12-17	28
2017-12-18	21
2017-12-19	30
2017-12-20	19
2017-12-21	30
2017-12-22	24
2017-12-23	23
2017-12-24	30
2017-12-25	28
2017-12-26	25
2017-12-27	30
2017-12-28	21
2017-12-29	25
2017-12-30	21
2017-12-31	32
2018-01-01	28
2018-01-02	27
2018-01-03	28
2018-01-04	27
2018-01-05	22
2018-01-06	28
2018-01-07	19
2018-01-08	33
2018-01-09	16
2018-01-10	24
2018-01-11	19
2018-01-12	25
2018-01-13	31
2018-01-14	24
2018-01-15	25
2018-01-16	29
2018-01-17	41
2018-01-18	35
2018-01-19	23
2018-01-20	25
2018-01-21	18
2018-01-22	33
2018-01-23	30
2018-01-24	24
2018-01-25	23
2018-01-26	30
2018-01-27	24
2018-01-28	28
2018-01-29	30
2018-01-30	20
2018-01-31	29
2018-02-01	22
2018-02-02	30
2018-02-03	26
2018-02-04	32
2018-02-05	28
2018-02-06	31
2018-02-07	16
2018-02-08	24
2018-02-09	23
2018-02-10	24
2018-02-11	30
2018-02-12	32
2018-02-13	22
2018-02-14	21
2018-02-15	30
2018-02-16	21
2018-02-17	27
2018-02-18	36
2018-02-19	21
2018-02-20	27
2018-02-21	23
2018-02-22	33
2018-02-23	26
2018-02-24	31
2018-02-25	32
2018-02-26	33
2018-02-27	22
2018-02-28	14
2018-03-01	24
2018-03-02	37
2018-03-03	25
2018-03-04	28
2018-03-05	29
2018-03-06	22
2018-03-07	28
2018-03-08	29
2018-03-09	33
2018-03-10	39
2018-03-11	24
2018-03-12	30
2018-03-13	35
2018-03-14	27
2018-03-15	25
2018-03-16	33
2018-03-17	27
2018-03-18	26
2018-03-19	29
2018-03-20	27
2018-03-21	25
2018-03-22	31
2018-03-23	27
2018-03-24	29
2018-03-25	36
2018-03-26	27
2018-03-27	31
2018-03-28	16
2018-03-29	32
2018-03-30	26
2018-03-31	18
2018-04-01	34
2018-04-02	29
2018-04-03	34
2018-04-04	28
2018-04-05	25
2018-04-06	35
2018-04-07	25
2018-04-08	22
2018-04-09	32
2018-04-10	27
2018-04-11	22
2018-04-12	24
2018-04-13	28
2018-04-14	32
2018-04-15	36
2018-04-16	24
2018-04-17	23
2018-04-18	22
2018-04-19	30
2018-04-20	24
2018-04-21	29
2018-04-22	31
2018-04-23	39
2018-04-24	27
2018-04-25	39
2018-04-26	28
2018-04-27	30
2018-04-28	30
2018-04-29	40
2018-04-30	28
2018-05-01	36
2018-05-02	40
2018-05-03	39
2018-05-04	24
2018-05-05	47
2018-05-06	22
2018-05-07	37
2018-05-08	32
2018-05-09	37
2018-05-10	27
2018-05-11	23
2018-05-12	34
2018-05-13	34
2018-05-14	27
2018-05-15	31
2018-05-16	38
2018-05-17	32
2018-05-18	26
2018-05-19	45
2018-05-20	33
2018-05-21	40
2018-05-22	47
2018-05-23	46
2018-05-24	37
2018-05-25	33
2018-05-26	36
2018-05-27	56
2018-05-28	43
2018-05-29	46
2018-05-30	47
2018-05-31	40
2018-06-01	42
2018-06-02	35
2018-06-03	40
2018-06-04	47
2018-06-05	55
2018-06-06	47
2018-06-07	44
2018-06-08	48
2018-06-09	37
2018-06-10	51
2018-06-11	57
2018-06-12	44
2018-06-13	44
2018-06-14	43
2018-06-15	52
2018-06-16	46
2018-06-17	55
2018-06-18	39
2018-06-19	59
2018-06-20	60
2018-06-21	51
2018-06-22	41
2018-06-23	52
2018-06-24	52
2018-06-25	48
2018-06-26	51
2018-06-27	61
2018-06-28	62
2018-06-29	53
2018-06-30	73
2018-07-01	62
2018-07-02	74
2018-07-03	56
2018-07-04	55
2018-07-05	67
2018-07-06	52
2018-07-07	52
2018-07-08	44
2018-07-09	58
2018-07-10	73
2018-07-11	60
2018-07-12	70
2018-07-13	60
2018-07-14	73
2018-07-15	64
2018-07-16	50
2018-07-17	70
2018-07-18	69
2018-07-19	67
2018-07-20	76
2018-07-21	64
2018-07-22	51
2018-07-23	58
2018-07-24	67
2018-07-25	73
2018-07-26	69
2018-07-27	67
2018-07-28	73
2018-07-29	65
2018-07-30	86
2018-07-31	87
2018-08-01	83

Trend

The graph shows an upward trend which starts right after the increased their bidding for Google from 2nd position to 1st.

Conclusion

4604 total user acquired accounts via Google advertising since bidding for 1st position (2018-05-04 through 2018-08-01)

$45 average cost per account since the bidding for first place began on 2018-05-04

If the company did not change its bidding strategy, it would have acquired a total of 1323 accounts during the time frame (2018-05-04 through 2018-08-01) with a marketing spend of $39,690 this is compared to the 4604 users that were acquired with a marketing spend of $207,180. By bidding for the 1st position for the last five months they were able to acquire an additional 3,281 accounts for an increase cost of $49,215. The marginal cost per account for the additional accounts was $15.

45$ per account for 1st (15$ higher); ($207,180(spent) / 4604(users)) Timeframe: 5-4-18 - 8-1-18 (87 days) 4604 total users. 4604 * 45 = $207,180 spent

30$ per account for 2nd ($289,740(spent) / 9658(users) Timeframe: 2016-08-08 - 2018-05-03 (635 days) 9658 total users. 9658 * 30 = $289,740 spent

Marginal Cost = (Change in Costs) / (Change in Quantity) Marginal Cost $49,215 / 3281= $15