Chapter 18 Prediction

Prediction is a key goal of modeling, but also the goal of learning.

We aim to develop predictive algorithms/models that solve different predictive tasks: A predictive algorithm provides a rule that either (a) classifies an entity, or (b) predicts a value on some scale.

A key component of any predictive enterprise consists in evaluating predictive performance.

Preparation

Recommended background readings for this chapter include:

Preflections

i2ds: Preflexions

  • What is the purpose of science?
  • What is the difference between explanation and prediction?
  • What is less/more difficult and less/more useful?
  • What would we like to predict?