18.1 Introduction

On of the most fundamental properties of thought is its power of predicting events.

K.J.W. Craik (1943), The nature of explanation, Ch. 5

Clarify key terminology: Prediction.

Distinguish between explanation (accounting for past data) and prediction (accounting for novel data).

An ability to predict implies specifying a mechanism. This does not need to be the true underlying mechanism, but some explicit model (which could be the actual mechanism or an as if model).


  • formal models
  • criteria for evaluating predictions