On of the most fundamental properties of thought is its power of predicting events.
K.J.W. Craik (1943), The nature of explanation, Ch. 5
Clarify key terminology: Prediction.
Distinguish between explanation (accounting for past data) and prediction (accounting for novel data).
An ability to predict implies specifying a mechanism. This does not need to be the true underlying mechanism, but some explicit model (which could be the actual mechanism or an as if model).
- formal models
- criteria for evaluating predictions